Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
Tuesday's college hoops slate is more riveting than usual, as we've got several matchups on tap that may have postseason implications come March.
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Kentucky 
at Louisville 
Both of these teams shot out of the gate last week, taking care of business against teams from the lower levels of D1. Now, the first real test awaits.
On paper, Kentucky appears to have the overall edge. Thanks to its dominant performances last week, the Wildcats now sit atop KenPom's overall efficiency standings. The Wildcats boasted a nearly identical offensive ranking last year, 11th, although the defense was the team's glaring weakness. Now, in the second year under head coach Mark Pope, Kentucky brought in the personnel to address the issue, and KenPom suggests the changes made all the difference. Entering Tuesday, the Wildcats have the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the nation, which is substantially better than their ranking of 51st last year.
In contrast, Louisville's defense doesn't appear quite as sharp, ranking 36th in adjusted efficiency. The Cardinals should have the firepower to overcome the weakness in most games, sporting the third-highest offensive efficiency rating, although this is the kind of matchup where a subpar defense, comparatively, may get you burned.
In looking at the rosters, Kentucky again appears to take the edge. The Wildcats have greater minutes continuity from last season, ranked 157th compared to 245th for the Cardinals, per KenPom. According to 247sports, Kentucky had the sixth-best group of recruits in the nation, a few ticks higher than Louisville, which came in at 10th on the same list.
Looking at the bottom line, Kentucky has the better defense, and it has more continuity from last season, which I tend to believe is more valuable early in the season, as rapport and chemistry usually take time to build. I'm taking the Wildcats in this matchup.
College Basketball Best Bet: Kentucky +4.5
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Texas Tech 
at Illinois 
In their second year under head coach Grant McCasland, the Red Raiders reached the Elite Eight and now appear poised to take another step forward.
Texas Tech will arguably have the best player on the court on Tuesday, as JT Toppin appears fully healthy after sitting out the season opener. Toppin, a returning Consensus All-America and Big 12 Player of the Year, made his season debut on Friday and didn't skip a beat. He shot 10-for-19 from the field, made 11 free throws, grabbed eight offensive boards, and even have a few assists and steals along the way. Additionally, the entire team is off to a hot start. The Red Raiders established a new program record with 17 made 3-pointers in the win over Lindenwood, per Texas Tech Athletics.
Before Texas Tech head coach McCasland arrived in Lubbock, his teams' signature trait was an elite defense, as he guided his two most recent North Texas teams to top-25 defensive efficiency ratings. Texas Tech hasn't reached the same defensive level just yet, but it has steadily improved under his watch. In McCasland's first year, TTU ranked 65th on defense at season's end, then 39th last season, and now they sit at 29th entering Tuesday. If historical trends are predictive at all, then it's reasonable to think that Texas Tech's defense will continue sharpening as the season progresses.
At this moment, Illinois has the advantage in efficiency ratings, but I believe Texas Tech has enough talent and skill to keep the game close, if not steal a tough win on the road. It's also worth noting that Illinois coach Brad Underwood said star junior center Tomislav Ivisic (knee) and reserve freshman guard Brandon Lee (ankle) will both be out for the game.
All things considered, I'd rather take the points with JT Toppin and company.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas Tech +4
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Creighton 
at Gonzaga 
Gonzaga looked like its usual self when it soundly defeated Oklahoma on this past Saturday, 83-68. Now, the defensive assignment gets a bit harder as Creighton comes into town.
The Bluejays endured significant roster turnover in the offseason, losing their three leading point scorers from last year. That said, they still return two starters from last year's team, including sophomore forward Jackson McAndrew, who earned a spot on the Big East All-Freshman Team after setting the Creighton freshman record with 69 three-pointers. The current group of Bluejays is ranked 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, so this team is still expected to put up a lot of points regardless.
The point spread is always tempting, but in this case, I prefer our chances of the over hitting.
Gonzaga aggressively pushes the tempo as much as any team, ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo last season, so an incredibly high score is always on the table. We also have stats like the following, courtesy of Creighton Athletics: "Since Greg McDermott was hired at Creighton, the Bluejays have shot 60 percent or better 31 times. The only team that's done it more is Tuesday's foe, Gonzaga (48 times)."
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 166.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Kentucky +4.5
- Texas Tech +4
- Creighton at Gonzaga - Over 166.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
