NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, January 4

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Saturday, January 4

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a nice-sized slate for a Saturday, as there are eight games on tap. We do have a handful of big names already ruled out due to either injury or suspension, but we're also expected to be treated to the long-awaited season debut of Kawhi Leonard, who's finally ready to play despite his problematic knee. 

Slate Overview

For the latest spreads and over/unders, visit RotoWire's NBA Odds page. There, you can also find player props, futures, picks articles and sportsbook bonus codes

Listed spreads/totals are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, 1/4 @ 11:00 a.m. EST:    

Minnesota Timberwolves (-7.5) at Detroit Pistons (O/U: 218.0)
Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers (-1.5) (O/U: 234.0)
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat (-8.5) (O/U: 223.5) 
New York Knicks (-5.5) at Chicago Bulls (O/U: 236.0)
Denver Nuggets (-3) at San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 236.0)
Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5) (O/U: 228.5)
Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors (-2.5) (O/U: 233.5)
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers (-7) (O/U: 227.5)

The night shapes up fairly optimistically from a betting perspective, considering there's only one double-digit spread and a couple of games with numbers at three and below. 

Projected totals paint an even brighter picture, as half of the ledger consists of matchups expected to finish comfortably above 230 points. That holds true even for a Grizzlies-Warriors clash that will be played without either Ja Morant or Stephen Curry.

Injury Situations to Monitor   

For all the latest updates, visit RotoWire's NBA Injury News page and our comprehensive NBA Injury Report.

Stephen Curry, GSW (knee): OUT 

In Curry's absence, Dennis Schroder will likely enjoy a bigger ball-handing role while Moses Moody could draw a start at point guard.

Ja Morant, MEM (shoulder): OUT

In Morant's ongoing absence, Scotty Pippen should draw another start at point guard while the rest of the starting five sees a usage boost.

Jimmy Butler, MIA (suspension): OUT

With Butler unavailable, Jaime Jaquez could draw a start at small forward and the likes of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo will enjoy sizable increases in usage.

Kawhi Leonard, LAC (knee): QUESTIONABLE

Leonard is questionable but expected to play, and in his projected season debut, he'll almost certainly be on a minutes restriction and may not be part of the starting five.

Other notable injuries:

Jeremy Sochan, SAN (back): QUESTIONABLE
Ayo Dosunmu, CHI (calf): OUT
Jerami Grant, POR (face): OUT
Aaron Gordon, DEN (calf): QUESTIONABLE
Bradley Beal, PHO (hip): QUESTIONABLE
John Collins, UTA (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Andrew Wiggins, GSW (hamstring): PROBABLE
Khris Middleton, MIL (ankle): PROBABLE
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (knee): PROBABLE

Elite Players

We have four players with five-figure salaries on Saturday's slate: Nikola Jokic ($12,800), Victor Wembanyama ($11,900), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000).

Jokic eclipsed 80 FD points for the second time in three games Friday while falling just short of another triple-double and is averaging 73 FD points in his last five games overall.

Wembanyama just put up 64.6 FD points against the Nuggets on Friday and has now scored over 54 FD points in nine of his last 10 games.

Antetokounmpo has scored 55.9 and 62.1 FD points in his first two games back from injury, but the one caveat attached to him Saturday is his team is the largest favorite of the night, signaling the potential for abbreviated minutes.

Towns has scored over 50 FD points in four straight and is drawing an especially appealing matchup against the Bulls.

Expected Chalk

Other likely chalk plays include:

Trae Young, ATL ($9,300)

Young has scored 46.5 FD points or more in four of his last five games and at least 30 actual points in three straight.

Kevin Durant, PHO ($9,200)

Durant has scored 42.8 to 56 FD points in six of the last seven games, which should make him very popular at his salary.

Jalen Johnson, ATL ($8,900)

Johnson appears past his shoulder injury and has scored over 41 FD points in six of his last seven games.

Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,200)

Adebayo is expected to take on much more usage now that Jimmy Butler is suspended and already carries a ceiling north of 50 FD points.

Tyler Herro, MIA ($8,000)

Herro may be the biggest beneficiary of Butler's suspension and likely won't be at this salary long as a result.

Key Values  

Jordan Clarkson, UTA at MIA ($6,100)

Clarkson's shooting inconsistencies sometimes cause his production to fluctuate, but the veteran guard comes into Saturday with a hot hand. Clarkson has shot a blistering 54.5 percent from three-point range over his last two games, helping lead to tallies of 35 and 35.3 FD points in those contests. Zooming out to a five-game sample, Clarkson is averaging 35.6 FD points in that span and now faces a Heat team that's without Butler and has allowed the fifth-most FD points per game to two-guards (45.6) in the last seven contests.

Dennis Schroder, GSW vs. MEM ($5,700)

Schroder will take the floor without Stephen Curry on Saturday and is already coming off his best game as a member of the Warriors, as he produced 34.8 FD points across 25 minutes on Wednesday against the 76ers while shooting an improved 5-for-9 from the field. Schroder should be more involved offensively Saturday given Curry's absence, and he'll be facing a Grizzlies team that's allowed just over 53 FD points per game to point guards in the last seven contests.

Jaime Jaquez, MIA vs. UTA ($4,700)

Jaquez could be a direct beneficiary of Jimmy Butler's suspension in the form of a starting small forward role, one he's proven capable of producing plenty in during previous opportunities. The second-year wing has scored over 40 FD points in two of his four starts this season, all which came in December. Jaquez is also drawing a very appealing matchup, as the Jazz ranks No. 22 in offensive efficiency rating allowed to small forwards (25.1) and has allowed the third-most FD points per contest to the position in the last 15 games (46.5).

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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