This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
The first Sunday of the NFL season brings a bevy of games with bye weeks having yet to come into play. With so many options to wade through on FanDuel, let's get right to it and break down the slate.
The Games
A lot of the focus of DFS picks is on individual players. Skills certainly matter, but finding game environments that are likely to promote a lot of points scored is a way to narrow the focus of our player pool.
Over-Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
42.5 | Steelers | 19.5 | Falcons | 23 |
47.5 | Cardinals | 20.5 | Bills | 27 |
44.5 | Titans | 20 | Bears | 24.5 |
40.5 | Patriots | 16 | Bengals | 24.5 |
48.5 | Texans | 25.5 | Colts | 23 |
48.5 | Jaguars | 22.5 | Dolphins | 26 |
41.5 | Panthers | 19 | Saints | 22.5 |
41.5 | Vikings | 21.5 | Giants | 20 |
40.5 | Raiders | 18.8 | Chargers | 21.8 |
41.5 | Broncos | 18 | Seahawks | 23.5 |
40.5 | Cowboys | 19 | Browns | 21.5 |
43.5 | Commanders | 20 | Buccaneers | 23.5 |
51.5 | Rams | 24 | Lions | 27.5 |
- There are no games with a total less than 40.5 points. Six games have a total of at least 46.5 points, so there could be plenty of fireworks in the first week of the season.
- The favorites with the highest totals include the Lions, Bills and Dolphins.
Value Options
This section will highlight players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis. DFS analysis will often focus on getting 3X return on a player's salary, or another similar mark. This is only a part of the analysis, but it can help identify potential salary savers or building blocks for lineups.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO ($5,600)
The Panthers enter the season thin at running back. Jonathon Brooks (knee) will miss at least the first four games and Miles Sanders ($5,300) is battling a finger injury. Even when he was healthy, he fell into a limited role last year. Expect there to be plenty of work for Hubbard, who had at least 22 carries in four of their final six games last season. That included a Week 14 matchup against the Saints in which he turned 23 carries into 87 yards. He also caught both of his targets for an additional nine yards.
Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. ARI ($5,400)
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are no longer on the Bills. They combined for 241 targets last year. Expected to pick up some of those targets is Shakir, who caught 39 of 45 targets last year for 611 yards and two touchdowns. Behind him on the depth chart is rookie Keon Coleman ($6,000) and Curtis Samuel ($5,200), who battled turf toe during the preseason. This is also a great matchup for Shakir, given that the Cardinals allowed the second-most points per game in the league last season.
Other Value Options
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS at TB ($7,100)
QB Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN ($6,800)
RB Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. JAC ($6,600)
RB Devin Singletary, NYG vs. MIN ($6,300)
RB J.K. Dobbins, LAC vs. LV ($5,500)
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI at BUF ($6,600)
WR Malik Nabers, NYG vs. MIN ($6,300)
WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAC at MIA ($5,100)
TE David Njoku, CLE vs. DAL ($5,900)
TE Taysom Hill, NO vs. CAR ($5,500)
Stacks to Consider
Buffalo Bills vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matchups of the week. Josh Allen ($9,200) is always an appealing option, given his ability to rack up yards both on the ground and through the air. Last season, he threw 29 touchdown passes and scored 15 rushing touchdowns. While he has a hefty salary, pairing him with Shakir helps to balance your budget.
The Cardinals also have an appealing duo to stack of Kyler Murray ($7,900) and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,600). Injuries limited Murray to just eight games last year, but he finished the season by throwing six touchdown passes in his final three games. Like Allen, he can do damage with his legs. Despite his limited time on the field, he still ran for 244 yards and had three rushing touchdowns last season. In each of the three seasons in which he has played at least 14 games, he has run for at least 423 yards and four touchdowns.
Murray's new top pass-catching option is Harrison, who the Cardinals selected fourth overall in the draft. He is coming off back-to-back seasons in college with at least 1,211 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals' defense could struggle to slow down the opposition again, so Murray might be forced to throw a lot to try and keep them in the game.
Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Lions scored the fifth-most points per game in the league last season, while the Rams scored the eighth most. On the Lions side of things, the trio of Jared Goff ($7,500), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900) and Sam LaPorta ($8,000) comes with tremendous upside. Goff completed 70.1 percent of his passes and threw 19 touchdowns at home last season. On the road, he completed 64.8 percent of his passes and totaled 11 passing touchdowns.
St. Brown received 28.5 percent of the Lions' targets last season on his way to 119 receptions, 1,515 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. LaPorta received 20.9 percent of the team's targets while posting 86 receptions, 889 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. They are both expected to fill similar roles this season.
On the Rams side, we have a couple options to consider. Matthew Stafford ($7,300) could be stacked with either Cooper Kupp ($7,000) or Puka Nacua ($8,400). Given their significant differences in salaries, Kupp might be the more optimal option. While injuries have plagued him the last two seasons, he is healthy now and could be primed for a bounce-back campaign. Even with all of his injuries last season, he was targeted on 26.3 percent of his routes, which ranked inside the 93rd percentile.
Other Stacks to Consider
Houston – C.J. Stroud ($8,500) + Tank Dell ($6,400)
Dolphins – Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) + Tyreek Hill ($9,600)
Seahawks – Geno Smith ($7,000) + DK Metcalf ($6,900)
High-Price Heroes
Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. JAC ($9,600)
Hill came storming out of the gates last year, posting 11 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Chargers. He went on to record eight games with at least 100 receiving yards and average 15.1 yards per reception. The Jaguars should be a favorable matchup, given that they allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game in the league last year.
Sam LaPorta, DET vs. LAR ($8,000)
We already touched on adding LaPorta into a stack with Goff. For those who don't want to roll out a Lions stack, LaPorta should still be considered. Last season, the Rams allowed the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. They also allowed a league-high 8.36 yards per target to the position.
The Smash Spot
Josh Allen, BUF vs. ARI ($9,200)
Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love are not available for the main Sunday slate because they play in primetime games Thursday or Friday. With Diggs and Davis no longer in town, Allen could use his legs even more as he works on building a rapport with his new wide receivers. In a game that has one of the highest over/unders of the week, Allen comes with tremendous upside.