The XFL regular season concluded and we're down to the four teams playoff teams. Saturday's matchup is the less appealing — at least from a fantasy perspective — of the games, as it features the Houston Roughnecks against the Arlington Renegades. The Roughnecks are a 6.5-point favorite and the game total is 41.5. Sunday's game features the two North division teams, the Seattle Sea Dragons and D.C. Defenders. The Defenders are three-point home favorites and the total is 48.5.
Quarterback
Jordan Ta'amu ($10,000) vs. Seattle
The Defenders were the most impressive regular-season team. Their defense had a lot to do with that, but Ta'amu took a significant step forward in his production toward the end of the campaign. Most important, when the games were still meaningful, he broke out of a committee approach with D'Eriq King to serve as the team's true starting quarterback. In addition, he showed the ability to supplement his passing ability with his legs by tallying more than 20 rushing yards in five of 10 games.
Cole McDonald ($7,800) vs. Arlington
Given the limited number of options and tight pricing, it'll be necessary to get uncomfortable in at least one spot in the lineup, potentially two. Quarterback likely isn't the ideal place to do it, but McDonald has earned a bigger role in the Houston offense and has been used fairly frequently as a rusher and passer down the stretch as Brandon Silvers struggles. The most likely outcome is that McDonald plays a small role in the offense, but those willing to take on a significant amount of variance could be paid off by rostering McDonald.
Running Back
Abram Smith ($9,800) vs. Seattle
Everything about rostering Smith is straightforward. He has an extremely secure workload and will undoubtedly project the best of any running back this weekend. Seattle had a mediocre run defense throughout the regular season, though it's allowed the most yards on the ground of any remaining postseason club. Workload and matchup say play Smith, but sacrifices will have to be made in at least one spot on the roster. The opportunity cost at running back is high, likely more than so than at wide receiver.
Leddie Brown ($4,700) at Houston
For those who opt to take the risk at running back, Brown is the straightforward choice. He took over the Arlington backfield in Week 10, even though De'Veon Smith was active. Smith wasn't at full strength, and that offers the most likely explanation as to why Brown took over the backfield. On the off chance the Renegades switched the order of their backfield, Brown will be an obvious value option and likely necessary to place well in the weekend's contests.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Lucky Jackson ($9,200) vs. Seattle
The most typical roster construction will exclude Jackson from many rosters based on price, but those who build differently — a good idea depending on contest type — should look to Jackson. He's the clear favorite target in D.C. and is among the clearest top pass catchers of any team in the playoffs. Since Week 3, he's failed to record double-digit DK points in a game only once.
Juwan Green ($7,100) at D.C.
Green is a boom-bust option, but few at the position have shown his ceiling. Since Week 6, he's put together performances of 36.2, 16.0 and 18.8 DK points. There's no one at a lower price who offers that type of upside, and there are several players with a more significant price who haven't matched his output lately. The last thing to keep in mind is that the way to attack the Defenders' defense is through the air, so Ben DiNucci and his pass catchers are likely to be busy.
Tyler Vaughns ($4,700) at Houston
For those needing to pay down in at least one wide receiver/tight end slot, Vaughns is among the better options entering the weekend. In the last three games of the regular season — when Luis Perez stepped in as the team's quarterback — he averaged 10.3 DK points per game. While Sal Cannella still stands out as the top pass catcher in the Arlington offense, Vaughns has emerged as a solid No. 2.
Defense/Special Teams
Arlington Renegades ($4,000) at Houston
The choice at DST comes down to one of the two teams in the South, as this projects to be the far less explosive offensive matchup. Brandon Silvers has been turnover prone across the second half of the season and the Renegades led the league in interceptions. A few turnovers is a realistic expectation, with the dream scenario being that one of those turnovers is returned for a score.
