The data points continue to come in as we've completed two weeks of the XFL and both teams and players have started to separate themselves sa the elites of the league. Orlando is among the worst teams, and we see the reflected in Week 3 odds as the Guardians are 8.5 point underdogs to Arlington. The Vipers and Sea Dragons are the other winless teams, though the Sea Dragons have a point differential of only -6. The Sea Dragons and Vipers square off Saturday night, so at most, we will have two winless teams heading into Week 4. On the opposite side of things, the Defenders, Battlehawks and Roughnecks remain undefeated. The Defenders and Battlehawks play Sunday at 1 p.m. EST in what should be the game of the week. The final matchup is between the Brahmas and Roughnecks on Sunday night.
Quarterback
Kyle Sloter ($6,000) ARL vs. ORL
The Renegades changed quarterbacks after a Week 2 loss, benching Drew Plitt in favor of Sloter. Sloter was the presumed starter when the season began, but lost out to Plitt. He'll now have the chance to claim the job for the rest of the season. Given that the news came out after salaries were set, he's $1,700 cheaper than any starter this week. That's a strong place to start from a value perspective, which is only enhanced by the matchup against a Guardians defense that has allowed 63 points this season — 20 more than any unit in the league.
A.J. McCarron ($10,600) STL at DC
For those looking for more security at the position, McCarron has unsurprisingly proven to be among the steadiest quarterbacks in the league. His stats aren't the flashiest, but he is third in the league in yards per attempt and second in completion percentage. The Defenders are a tough matchup having allowed the fewest points in the league but have been relatively vulnerable through the air (183.5 passing yards allowed per game). This isn't the perfect week to play McCarron, but he should be a reliable cash-game play even if it's not lining up to be a ceiling performance.
Running Back
Morgan Ellison ($4,600) SEA at VGS
Seattle is thin at running back this week with Brenden Knox (foot) out. Knox leads the team with 14 carries, while Ellison has 13. Ellison should be in for a more significant workload in Week 3, and it's perfect timing from a matchup perspective. Vegas has allowed 312 rushing yards, the most in the league by 76 yards. Ellison is another key value play this weekend that will free significant salary to pay for elite options.
Abram Smith ($8,200) DC vs. STL
One of those elite options is Smith, who is second in the XFL in rushing yards with 102. Generally speaking, teams have skewed heavily toward their offensive production coming through the air rather than the ground. In most cases, that would mean the most efficient way to build a lineup is to pay down at running back and pay up at quarterback and pass-catching positions. DC is the exception, as they are the only team to have more rushing yards (313) than passing (183).
Also Consider: Max Borghi ($9,000) HOU vs. SA
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Cody Latimer ($4,100) ORL at ARL
Latimer is a repeat recommendation from last week because he continues to produce but has seen his price rise only marginally since the beginning of the season. He ranks fourth in the league in receptions and is one of only three players with multiple touchdowns. The only team worse defending the pass this year than the Guardians is the Renegades, so the matchup also works in his favor. Like the other value options mentioned, another draw of rostering Latimer is the chance to pay up for the elite receivers on the slate.
Sal Cannella ($7,100) ARL vs. ORL
Unlike Latimer, Canella is priced appropriately. That takes away some of the shine of rostering him, but he's produced well and has been efficient with his opportunity relative to the rest of the league by posting nine yards per target. As was noted, the Guardians' defense is one to attack, and Canella is the most productive pass catcher in the Arlington offense by a significant margin. Brandon Arconado ($6,000) is a cheaper option from this offense also worth considering.
Jahcour Pearson ($9,000) SEA at VGS
Pearson is an interesting case. He leads the XFL in targets, yards and receptions, yet he's only the fifth-most expensive wide receiver on DraftKings. That suggests he's worth paying up for. There is some danger in the Seattle offense as it has several capable pass catchers including Blake Jackson ($7,100) and Josh Gordon ($10,400), so there's no guarantee that the offense continues to run through Pearson. Teams have beaten up on the Vipers with the rushing attack early in the campaign, which also could take away volume from all of the pass catchers. At his price, it would be painful to miss on Pearson, so there's more risk in his profile than his production to this point suggests.
Defense/Special Teams
Renegades ($4,800) vs. Guardians
Setting aside Latimer as a strong value, the Guardians' offense has been a disaster. They've played a combination of three quarterbacks this season who have combined to throw four interceptions and four touchdowns while leading the team to only 24 points across two games. The downside is that the Arlington defense is priced up as a result of its matchup and hasn't been all that strong on their own merit.
Also Consider: Seattle ($4,000) vs. Vipers
