This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Playoffs Betting Guide: 2024 World Series Picks and Pennant Bets
The 2024 MLB regular season was a unique one. While we had plenty of superstar players, with Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge crossing the 10-WAR threshold while Shohei Ohtani spent his time as a one-way player producing the first 50/50 season in history, we were short on super teams. For the first time since 2014, no team won 100 games, with the Dodgers leading the National League with 98 wins and the Yankees leading the American League with 94.
That should mean a wide-open postseason, though that's nearly always the case anyway in the MLB playoffs, especially since the field expanded to 12. In two seasons under the new system, we've had one No. 5 seed and two No. 6 seeds reach the World Series. We're unlikely to see quite so much chaos over the long run — ignoring talent discrepancies between teams and assuming every series is a coin flip, a wild card vs. wild card World Series should happen roughly once every seven years — but with preseason favorites like Atlanta and Baltimore entering the field through the back door this season, we could be in for another year full of deep playoff runs from lesser seeds.
For the past two seasons, I've compared the best available pennant and World Series odds from the bookmakers, which can be compared all in one place here at RotoWire, with the projection-based playoff odds available at FanGraphs, highlighting three teams whose odds appeared mispriced. In 2022, that article nailed both pennant winners (the Astros and Phillies), while last season's version correctly featured the Diamondbacks but failed to anticipate the Rangers' victory.
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MLB Playoff Bracket
Wild Card Round
- Orioles (4) vs. Royals (5)
- Astros (3) vs. Tigers (6)
- Padres (4) vs. Braves (5)
- Brewers (3) vs. Mets (6)
AL Wild Card Byes
- Yankees (1)
- Guardians (2)
NL Wild Card Byes
- Dodgers (1)
- Phillies (2)
AL Division Series
- Orioles/Royals at Yankees
- Astros/Tigers at Guardians
NL Division Series
- Padres/Braves at Dodgers
- Brewers/Mets at Phillies
MLB Playoff Odds
We'll begin with the following table, which compares each team's best-available pennant and World Series odds with the projections available at FanGraphs. (Odds listed below are accurate as of writing, but you can click the links above to find out the current best odds.) Bets that the projections like are highlighted in bold.
| Team | Best Pen Odds | Implied Prob | FG Pennant% | Best WS Odds | Implied Prob | FG WS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +175 | 36.4% | 27.6% | +360 | 21.7% | 15.9% |
| Yankees | +180 | 35.7% | 34.3% | +450 | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| Phillies | +230 | 30.3% | 31.6% | +475 | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| Astros | +370 | 21.3% | 19.7% | +900 | 10.0% | 9.5% |
| Guardians | +400 | 20.0% | 18.5% | +1100 | 8.3% | 6.9% |
| Padres | +550 | 15.4% | 14.0% | +1200 | 7.7% | 8.2% |
| Orioles | +550 | 15.4% | 12.6% | +1300 | 7.1% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | +1000 | 9.1% | 6.2% | +2000 | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Mets | +1200 | 7.7% | 6.1% | +2300 | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Braves | +1400 | 6.7% | 14.3% | +2800 | 3.4% | 8.2% |
| Royals | +1100 | 8.3% | 7.7% | +3000 | 3.2% | 2.7% |
| Tigers | +1200 | 7.7% | 7.1% | +3000 | 3.2% | 2.3% |
The key factor I've been tracking since the league switched to the 12-team playoffs ahead of the 2022 season is whether the bookmakers are systematically overrating either the favorites or the underdogs. On the one hand, the addition of a first-round bye for four teams is a significant factor, one which doubles their chances compared to the rest of the field. In theory, the deck is stacked more in favor of the favorites than it's ever been, or at least since the playoff field was so small that no underdogs could get into the postseason.
On the other hand, every playoff series is far closer to a coin flip than you might think. For one, the talent disparity between baseball teams is smaller than it is in other sports. Divide each team's wins and losses by 10 to put their records on a similar scale to NFL records, for example, and you'd see an entire field of 9-7 and 10-6 teams.
But more importantly, MLB playoff series are so short compared to the length of the regular season. The NFL regular season is 17 times as long as a given playoff game, while an 82-game NBA or NHL season is 11.7 times as long as a seven-game playoff series. Meanwhile, the MLB regular season is 54 times as long as the Wild Card Round, 32.4 times as long as the Division Series, and 23.1 times as long as the Championship Series and World Series. It's just not very difficult for an underdog, who's at only a slight disadvantage to begin with, to narrowly outplay a favorite over a small handful of games.
Across two years with the new format, the projections have disliked the bookies' price on seven of the eight teams with first-round byes. Those eight teams have collectively filled just three of eight available Championship Series berths and just one of four spots in the World Series, though one of the two winners (the 2022 Astros) was a No. 1 seed. On the other hand, the algorithms have indicated that half of the 16 teams stuck playing an extra round were bargains. Betting on the long shots sure worked out last season, with the fifth seed in the American League beating the sixth seed in the National League for the title, but will the same be true this season?
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MLB Playoff Picks
Philadelphia Phillies: +230 to win NL (DraftKings), +475 to win World Series (DraftKings)
Priced as the third-best team in MLB by the books, the projections have the Phillies as the strongest team in the field, making them easily the recommended bet for anyone looking to back a favorite. The core of this team is unchanged from the one that has reached the NLCS in consecutive seasons (winning a pennant in 2022), though the narrative with those teams was more about an underdog getting hot at the right time, riding the good vibes in the clubhouse and a raucous home crowd to a pair of deep playoff runs. If this year's Phillies team wins it all, it won't be an underdog story.
The team's star-studded offense can score in multiple ways, with the Phillies ranking fifth in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and steals while sitting seventh in homers, but it's the pitching staff that will make them a particularly imposing opponent.
In past postseasons, the plan was to win Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola's starts while scrambling something together in the other games, but Cristopher Sanchez (3.32 ERA) and Ranger Suarez (3.46 ERA) have taken steps forward this year to give the team a fearsome foursome. In the bullpen, Carlos Estevez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering give the team four relievers with an ERA of 2.50 or better. A healthy, deep pitching staff gives the Phillies the edge over the banged-up Dodgers among the NL favorites.
Houston Astros: +370 to win AL (DraftKings), +900 to win World Series (BetMGM)
The projections don't think any of the AL teams are a bargain, but the Astros stand out for being more or less fairly priced. They didn't earn a first-round bye, winning four fewer games than the Guardians, champions of the AL Central, but the projections and odds both prefer Houston even with Cleveland getting a first-round bye. (If the Astros got to play the White Sox 13 times like the Guardians did, rather than just six times, perhaps their records would have been flipped.) With the Guardians and Tigers in their corner of the bracket, the Astros couldn't have asked for much of an easier path.
The Astros have all the playoff experience you could ask for, making the ALCS in each of the last seven seasons, and while that does mean the core is certainly aging, the team has been bolstered by some key additions, particularly on the pitching side.
Houston can now turn to one of the best closers in the game, Josh Hader, in the ninth inning, bumping Ryan Pressly into a setup role next to Bryan Abreu. In the rotation, Hunter Brown (3.49 ERA) and Ronel Blanco (2.80 ERA) enjoyed breakout campaigns while Yusei Kikuchi (2.70 ERA with Houston) proved to be a big addition at the deadline, making up for the fact that age has finally caught up to 41-year-old Justin Verlander (5.48 ERA).
That pitching staff complements an offense that finished fifth in MLB by wRC+ (111), though that offense could take a big hit if Yordan Alvarez isn't cleared to return from his knee sprain. If you're thinking of backing Houston for their second World Series in three years and their third in the last eight, check his status first.
Atlanta Braves: +1400 to win NL (BetRivers), +2800 to win World Series (BetRivers)
The odds have the Braves as one of the weakest teams in the entire field, and you can understand why. They lost the projected top hitter and pitcher in baseball for the year early in the season, and they were the final team to clinch a playoff berth, clinching with a win in the second half of a rescheduled doubleheader against the Mets on Monday.
But the projections say that what remains is still a strong enough team that Atlanta ought to be priced as one of the best teams stuck playing in the opening round. The organization has complained that waiting around for a few days during their bye the past couple of seasons contributed to a pair of early exits, so perhaps being forced to fight through an extra round is just the way they want it.
Of course, the absences don't end at Spencer Strider (elbow) and Ronald Acuna (knee). Austin Riley (hand) is also out for the year, while Chris Sale, who remained healthy for the first time in several years and was in vintage form with a 2.38 ERA, was scratched from his final start due to back spasms. His loss would be a big blow, but the reason I'm still comfortable including Atlanta as one of my three recommended bets is that there's enough left in the rotation to keep the team competitive. Max Fried (3.25 ERA) is a proven frontline starter, while Reynaldo Lopez (2.00 ERA) and Spencer Schwellenbach (3.47 ERA) enjoyed breakout campaigns. Toss in a bullpen that ranked third by ERA- (78) and the only lingering question is an offense which was merely league-average on the year (100 wRC+). There's reason for optimism there, though, with Matt Olson heating up late in the year and Michael Harris and Ozzie Albies returning from long-term injuries. Even without several key pieces, it's a roster that looks misplaced next to the other long shots like the Royals and Tigers.
