This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, April 23
2025 Betting Record: 3-7 (-4.60 units)
2025 Player Props Betting Record: 7-5 (+1.15 units)
We've got our usual split Wednesday slate on tap, and I'm honing in on a pair of evening interleague matchups that feature some talented arms.
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Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Rays vs. Diamondbacks
- Under 0.5 runs - 1st inning (-113 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (+106 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
A couple of starters that are arguably better than their early-season ERAs in Taj Bradley and Eduardo Rodriguez face off in this interleague matchup Wednesday night. Bradley's ugly 5.24 ERA and below-average 1.39 WHIP are offset by a respectable .241 BAA, .314 xwOBA and 3.70 xERA, as well as a career-low 5.0% barrel rate allowed.
Bradley has also parlayed a fastball that averages just under 97 mph into a 9.7 K/9, and he's allowed two earned runs or less in two of his first four starts. The biggest culprit in his inflated surface numbers is the rough outing he had against a dangerous Yankees lineup last time out (5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 4 BB). Outside of that, Bradley has pitched to a 2-0 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 over the 17 innings covering his other three starts.
Meanwhile, Rodriguez has had a similar trajectory to Bradley, as he's had only one questionable performance out of his first four trips to the mound, and even that start wasn't that concerning. The veteran lefty allowed four earned runs over five innings to the Nationals, but he also recorded a season-high 12 Ks.
He's held the opposition to three runs or fewer in his other three trips to the mound, and he sports a .222 xBA, .279 xwOBA and 2.88 xERA overall. Meanwhile, Rodriguez faces a Rays squad that's struck out at a 24.4 percent clip vs. left-handers while mustering just a .205 average, .102 ISO, .279 wOBA and -5.8 wRAA in that split.
Given the talent of both pitchers, and the fact that both teams' most productive F5 run production comes in the opposite split they find themselves in – Tampa Bay averages an MLB-low 0.75 runs per first five on the road, while the D-Backs' 2.36 runs per first five at home is just outside the bottom 10 of MLB – I like the chances of a lower-scoring game early and for Rodriguez to hang in for at least six frames.
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MLB Picks for Pirates vs. Angels
- Pirates moneyline - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Andrew Heaney Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Pirates veteran left-hander Andrew Heaney looks to extend the strong start to his season against one of his former teams Wednesday night in a matchup against inconsistent right-hander Jack Kochanowicz.
Heaney walks into Wednesday's clash against the team he spent nearly seven seasons with sporting a 1-1 record, 2.13 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9 and 2.75 FIP across his first four turns. The southpaw also has an impressively low .293 xwOBA and is yielding the second-lowest barrel rate of his career (5.9 percent) while conceding sub-.200 averages on his two most frequently thrown pitches, the four-seamer and the changeup.
Heaney is surrendering a minuscule .154 average with runners in scoring position and .152 figure with runners on overall. What's more, through his first four starts, he's actually gotten tougher to face the more he sees a hitter, as evidenced by BAAs of .229, .161 and .174 his first, second and third time through an order, respectively.
Heaney has gone at least five innings in each start and at least six or more in the last three, so his chances of hanging in for at least the first five frames and giving the Pirates a good chance of having a lead at that point is strong. The chance of such are also aided by the fact the Angels have a 25.0 percent strikeout rate, .218 average, .577 OPS, .255 wOBA and -5.1 wRAA against left-handers in April.
Kochanowicz is also a vulnerable target, having given up 10 earned runs over the last two starts and having conceded respective .286 and .297 averages to left- and right-handed hitters. The right-hander also has a minuscule 4.4 K/9, a 1.8 HR/9, a 5.78 FIP that isn't too much of a departure from his 6.20 ERA and a .357 xwOBA that's actually higher than his .344 base figure.
Finally, consider Kochanowicz has given up respective batting averages of .353, .357, .333 and .400 in the first, second, third and fifth innings, further supporting the notion of a Pirates moneyline bet for the first five innings cashing.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Under 0.5 runs - 1st inning (-113 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Under 4.5 runs - F5 (+106 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Eduardo Rodriguez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Pirates moneyline - F5 (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Andrew Heaney Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
