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Saturday, July 6
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers
The Cincinnati Reds take on the Detroit Tigers in Game Two of this three-game interleague series. The Reds lost the first game, 5-4, after Reese Olson pitched a gem for the Tigers. The Tigers were up big going into the last inning, too, before the Reds mounted a comeback. The Reds got it to 5-4 and had the tying run on third base with one out, but the batter hit a weak grounder right to the third baseman and he was able to throw out the tying run at home to just about seal the game.
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Both of these teams had very similar expectations coming into this season. They both have really struggled in past years and they are trying to turn their franchises around. Both missed the playoffs and put up good years last year to take a massive step forward, and it seemed like both teams had a good amount of players to build around for the first time in a while. However, the Tigers are 40-48 this season and they are 21-26 on the road. They are just 18-29 against teams with records over .500 this season. They thought they had their core in Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson for many years to come and they could start building around them. However, Carpenter has now been hurt for a while. Greene is still performing for them in the middle of the lineup, but Spencer Torkelson was so bad this season that he was optioned to Triple A.
The Reds just missed the playoffs last year and had an amazing midseason run to even get in playoff contention. However, they went through an extended slump this year where they didn't have anyone hitting at all and it kind of derailed the first half of their season. The Reds are 42-46 this season and they are still only 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, so their season is far from over. However, they are only 20-24 at home and 20-27 against teams with records over .500. They just came off a road sweep of the Yankees and I thought they would carry their momentum into this series, but they had a classic "first home game after a long road trip" start to yesterday's game, and they were unable to overcome it. However, I think they will bounce back from the slow start yesterday and even this series.
Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds today and he has been pitching well over the past couple months, though he has struggled a bit in his past couple starts. He has been getting pounded within division games lately and those hitters have obviously seen him often and know how to attack him. He has actually pitched six straight games against teams in the division and he did not have a start against a non-division opponent all of June. He went 2-2 with a 4.96 ERA in that time, but I don't think we can read too much into it with the familiarity of those opponents. Meanwhile, the Tigers only play the Reds once a year so they are as much of an opposite as possible when it comes to familiarity with Hunter Greene.
The Tigers are in a bit of trouble with today's pitching because this is Casey Mize's spot in the rotation but he was just added to the IL. The Tigers are already dealing with some pitching injuries in the first place so I think they will end up going with a bullpen game. Their bullpen started off as one of the best in the league for the first couple months but they have really fallen off since. The Tigers are ranked 20th in bullpen ERA now and they should have everyone available for this game, but that is a tough ask to have them cover nine innings.
The Reds' bullpen is ranked eighth in the league this season and they will have their entire bullpen rested and ready to go in this game. So even if Greene has to come out early, they should be able to cover the innings. The Reds got off to a slow start yesterday but I think they will bounce back and force a rubber game here.
BEST BET
Reds ML -162 vs. Tigers (DraftKings)
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