This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Odds Update: Conference Championship Pick
We're back with a little Future Wednesday action. Last week I highlighted the Georgia Bulldogs as a College World Series bet at 20/1. Fast forward less than a week later and they're universally less than 15/1 everywhere. Let's switch gears to a different market in terms of a conference winner.
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Clemson Tigers to win the ACC
Clemson was a preseason Omaha 8 squad for me, but as you know, UNC and UVA were my two big teams in the ACC coming in. Both of those teams have shown a lot of good and bad, but are meddling in the middle right now at 6-6. There's still a ton of time left in the year as we're not even halfway through, so they're alive and well. If we take a look at other teams in the conference right now, two stand out in Florida State and Clemson.
FSU's 7-2 start isn't that surprising considering their pitching was always expected to be among the elite in the country. The offense has definitely looked a lot better than I thought it would be coming into the year, at least to this point. The issue is that their schedule was front-loaded with the easiest teams they were set to face in 2025 in BC, Miami, and Notre Dame.
The remaining weekends should be a lot more challenging with Wake Forest, @ Virginia Tech, Virginia, @ Louisville, Clemson, @ Cal and UNC on the docket. Luckily for them, they see all of the best ACC teams at home. But, I still think there may be some regression, aside from the fact they shouldn't be a -125 price at this point.
Clemson sitting at 6-3 in ACC play is good considering they've taken down Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. Schedule-wise, it softens up a bit with some winnable matchups. They'll go @ Cal, Stanford, Louisville, @ NC State, @ FSU, Duke, @ Pitt.
Aside from the schedule, I like what Clemson has done this year in terms of balance with pitching and hitting. On the offensive side, they're hitting .283 with 32 homers and 37 bags (out of 43 tries). Not eye-popping, but definitely expect them to kick it in gear in the second half. The lineup is loaded with talent. CF Cam Cannarella (projected first-rounder) is the heart and soul of the team and hasn't gotten going yet (.324 average/.909 OPS). Jarren Purify has been their best player thus far (.362 average/1.073 OPS/13 steals). With players like Dom Listi, Luke Gaffney, Josh Paino, Andrew Ciufo, and a lot of other contributors, this Tiger offense will be a big factor this season.
Pitching-wise, it's stocked like a trout pond. Led by Friday night ace, Aidan Knaak, a likely top arm off the board in 2026, it's a rotation that can carry the team. Knaak's season hasn't splashed (4.17 ERA, 57 K/12 BB ratio), but he's been strong lately aside from a bad start last week at GT. Ethan Darden as the Saturday guy was good to start the year, though the last two weekends were unkind to him, but will play a big role for this team. The Sunday role still needs to be ironed out, though.
Bullpen-wise, Clemson has one of the nation's best closers in Lucas Mahlstedt (8 saves/1.13 ERA). A rare commodity at this level of baseball is having a nails closer that can lock it down in the late innings. Maybe only four or five teams have one. Other arms like Reed Garris, Joe Allen, Hudson Lee, and Drew Titsworth have formed a strong unit to give this team an advantage in the later innings of a game.
The numbers of Clemson don't jump out at you just yet, but it's a good sign that they're still winning despite some of the shortcomings. One thing to note about an Erik Bakich-led program is they finish strong. Taking the Tigers at +225 to win the ACC is definitely a bet worth looking at.
Pick: Clemson to win the ACC +225 (Bet Rivers)
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