This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks for Opening Day 2025
OMG, we are SO BACK! One of my favorite days of the calendar year just happens to fall on Valentine's Day. I would put College Baseball Opening Day up there with July 4th, my birthday, St. Patrick's Day, and Christmas as one of the single best days of the year. We've waited so long for this moment, and now that it's finally here, I don't know what to do with myself. But I have a good place to start.
If you don't remember it from last year, the totals and run lines are usually very slow to make their way onto books. The writeups are done before they come out.
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MLB Desert Invitational
Vanderbilt Commodores (-166) @ Grand Canyon Antelopes (+130) | Total: N/A
One of the best parts about this sport is in the very beginning of the season, we get a barrage of different tournaments featuring a mix of teams that wouldn't otherwise play each other matching up. It provides some diversity in the sport.
The MLB Desert Invitational is one of the better tournaments every season, and we have some star power in this year's. The field consists of these two teams, Nebraska, UC Irvine, Austin Peay, New Mexico, Seton Hall, and San Diego State. This contest is definitely the top matchup this year.
The blue-blooded Vandy Boys are looking for a rebound season in 2025 after a disappointing 13-17 mark in SEC play. One of the main attractions for the Commodores this season is their ace/Friday night guy LHP JD Thompson. Personally, I have Thompson as one of the top five arms in the country this season, and a pitcher who could be a top 20 pick this summer (perfect target for the Orioles at 19 if he makes that far down).
The southpaw was fantastic last season, especially down the stretch, shoving for six-shutty against Tennessee and six-innings for one earned against Mississippi State in the month of May. Despite a 4.15 ERA, his microscopic 2.29 SIERA suggests he was very unlucky and is primed for a major season.
Although his heater only tops out at 95 MPH, he commands it extremely well on both sides of the plate and generates a lot of swings and misses. Along with his 80 MPH sweeping slider, curve, and change piece, Thompson can rack up a lot of K's (74 in 52 IP in 2024). A big part of handicapping college baseball is the pitcher you're backing. And typically, I like to back the premier arms.
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Facing a capable GCU offense that was good enough to win a chaotic regional out in Tucson last season, Thompson will have to continue that pristine command. GCU will be led by Zach Yorke (.285 average, 11 homers), Eli Paton (.319 average, 8 homers), and Eddy Pelc (.352 average, 15 doubles). Absorbing the losses of some of their top hitters like Tyler Wilson, Cade Verdusco, and Dustin Crenshaw, the Antelopes are team equipped to hit for average (.313), a little power (75 homers), and not strike out a ton (401). They likely won't steal a ton of bases, but it's an offense that can move the line. Just because they play out in the WAC, doesn't mean this team is a slouch.
In the post-Daniel Avitia era, the Lopes will turn to junior Isaac Lyon as the projected Friday night starter. As a hybrid pitcher last season, he was very effective with a 6-1 record, 3.97 ERA and only 16 walks in 81.2 innings of work. Not to mention his 3.22 SIERA suggests he pitched a lot better than his ERA says. The preseason WAC pitcher of the year will be a tough test for a Vandy lineup that projects to be a lot better than last year's.
Vandy welcomes back OF RJ Austin and his .331 average, 14 doubles, and 27 stolen bases as the catalyst of the lineup. Lyon will also have to deal with JMU transfer 2B Mike Mancini (.329 average, 15 homers, 29 stolen bases), SS Jonathan Vastine (10 homers, 17 doubles, 12 stolen bases), and highly touted freshman arrival 3B Brodie Johnston (#1 SS in Tennessee) who possessed a plus hit tool with power and a strong glove.
Playing in a tournament means you're not playing in a usual weekend series, so that may impact how HC Tim Corbin deploys his pitching. But the fact is we're getting one of the best pitchers in the country at a reasonable favorite price. I'm not sleeping on GCU, especially playing in their own ball park, but I have to roll with the horse in Thompson.
Give me the Vandy Boys in their first game of the year.
College Baseball best bet today
Pick: Vandy ML -166 (DK)
For the 2025 season, you can get my entire slate every weekend. Unlimited, uncut, right here.
