This article is part of our Fantasy 101 series.
I have spent the last few weeks talking about team statistics and starting pitching, and now we start getting into hitting. Cracking the hitting code in daily fantasy baseball is something we all strive for because it is so variant on a nightly basis. The questions we look to answer this week are:- What position should I spend the most money on?
- What salary ranges provide the best value?
- How did the price adjustment that FanDuel made on hitters in April impact the game?
- What teams have the highest scoring per game average (best teams to stack in tournaments)?
- What teams have the lowest scoring per game average (best teams to target pitchers against)?
- What hitters have the most "monster" games (at least ten points) and are ideal for tournaments?
- What teams have the most "monster" games (at least ten points) and are ideal for tournaments (stacking)?
- What hitters have the most "big" games (at least six points) and are ideal for both cash games and tournaments?
| Pos | Avg. PPG | Avg. Sal. | Value | Std. Dev. |
| First Base | 2.27 | $3,195 | 0.71 | 3.21 |
| Third Base | 2.13 | $2,934 | 0.73 | 3.11 |
| Outfield | 2.00 | $2,951 | 0.68 | 2.97 |
| Second Base | 1.72 | $2,727 | 0.63 | 2.73 |
| Shortstop | 1.60 | $2,588 | 0.62 | 2.56 |
| Catcher | 1.58 | $2,606 | 0.61 | 2.73 |
This chart is important when you are selecting your hitters and allocating your salary by position. In general, you want to spend at 1B/3B/OF and save up at 2B/SS/C. Not only are you getting more production from the corner infield and outfield spots, but you are getting better value (dividing points per game / salary * 1000).
| Salary | PPG | Std. Dev. | Value | Count | Salary | PPG | Std. Dev. | Value | Count |
| $2,200 | 1.30 | 2.41 | 0.59 | 4,875 | $4,300 | 2.61 | 3.29 | 0.61 | 174 |
| $2,300 | 1.44 | 2.54 | 0.63 | 1,707 | $4,400 | 3.08 | 4.08 | 0.70 | 135 |
| $2,400 | 1.60 | 2.68 | 0.67 | 1,603 | $4,500 | 3.45 | 4.11 | 0.77 | 114 |
| $2,500 | 1.68 | 2.79 | 0.67 | 1,347 | $4,600 | 2.91 | 3.27 | 0.63 | 87 |
| $2,600 | 1.72 | 2.65 | 0.66 | 1,361 | $4,700 | 3.41 | 3.66 | 0.73 | 92 |
| $2,700 | 1.87 | 2.85 | 0.69 | 1,283 | $4,800 | 3.56 | 4.31 | 0.74 | 88 |
| $2,800 | 2.02 | 2.87 | 0.72 | 1,167 | $4,900 | 3.53 | 3.76 | 0.72 | 69 |
| $2,900 | 2.13 | 3.13 | 0.73 | 1,085 | $5,000 | 3.19 | 3.46 | 0.64 | 61 |
| $3,000 | 2.03 | 2.86 | 0.68 | 1,211 | $5,100 | 3.75 | 3.56 | 0.74 | 63 |
| $3,100 | 2.10 | 2.98 | 0.68 | 879 | $5,200 | 2.98 | 3.35 | 0.57 | 51 |
| $3,200 | 2.20 | 3.12 | 0.69 | 766 | $5,300 | 3.46 | 3.03 | 0.65 | 37 |
| $3,300 | 2.27 | 3.03 | 0.69 | 667 | $5,400 | 2.54 | 3.90 | 0.47 | 34 |
| $3,400 | 2.17 | 2.99 | 0.64 | 641 | $5,500 | 3.63 | 3.81 | 0.66 | 12 |
| $3,500 | 2.69 | 3.41 | 0.77 | 553 | $5,600 | 4.29 | 3.74 | 0.77 | 20 |
| $3,600 | 2.53 | 3.14 | 0.70 | 475 | $5,700 | 3.86 | 4.86 | 0.68 | 9 |
| $3,700 | 2.59 | 3.51 | 0.70 | 422 | $5,800 | 5.38 | 5.25 | 0.93 | 6 |
| $3,800 | 2.29 | 3.00 | 0.60 | 376 | $5,900 | 4.75 | 2.06 | 0.81 | 6 |
| $3,900 | 2.84 | 3.45 | 0.73 | 312 | $6,000 | 3.19 | 3.68 | 0.53 | 4 |
| $4,000 | 2.64 | 3.40 | 0.66 | 321 | $6,100 | 4.04 | 4.35 | 0.66 | 6 |
| $4,100 | 2.93 | 3.66 | 0.71 | 233 | $6,200 | 3.00 | 4.60 | 0.48 | 2 |
| $4,200 | 2.86 | 3.54 | 0.68 | 175 |
You would expect there to be correlation between the average points per game and the salary, but this chart is important to show where there is potential value at what price points. There looks to be a shift at $2,800-$2,900 as the average points per game jumps up and the value (points per dollar) is better. The average points per game takes a big jump at $3,500. If you allocate $10,000-$12,000 on starting pitching, that leaves about $23,000-$25,000 spread out over eight hitters (average $2,875-$3,125).
| Date | Salary |
| April 5 | $3,239.00 |
| April 6 | $3,088.00 |
| April 7 | $3,022.00 |
| April 8 | $3,044.00 |
| April 9 | $2,982.00 |
| April 10 | $3,007.00 |
| April 11 | $2,975.00 |
| April 12 | $2,955.00 |
| April 13 | $3,025.00 |
| April 14 | $3,011.00 |
| April 15 | $3,000.00 |
| April 16 | $2,933.00 |
| April 17 | $3,030.00 |
| April 18 | $2,999.00 |
| April 19 | $2,970.00 |
| April 20 | $3,065.00 |
| April 21 | $3,007.00 |
| April 22 | $3,014.00 |
| April 23 | $3,024.00 |
| April 24 | $2,999.00 |
| April 25 | $2,750.00 |
From the beginning of the season until April 24, the average hitting salary on FanDuel was $3,019. On April 25, FanDuel made a reduction on all hitters' salaries, dropping the average to $2,813. While $200 might not seem like a huge difference, multiply that times eight (the number of hitters required on FanDuel) and this allows you to spend 10-15% more on pitching or hitting.
| Top 10 | Bottom 10 | ||||
| Team | Points | Salary | Team | Points | Salary |
| Blue Jays | 2.37 | $3,149.00 | White Sox | 1.51 | $2,604.00 |
| Yankees | 2.15 | $2,880.00 | Phillies | 1.51 | $2,527.00 |
| Astros | 2.14 | $2,986.00 | Mariners | 1.58 | $2,753.00 |
| Royals | 2.13 | $2,814.00 | Mets | 1.62 | $2,633.00 |
| Rockies | 2.12 | $3,402.00 | Brewers | 1.62 | $2,791.00 |
| Reds | 2.12 | $2,926.00 | Angels | 1.66 | $2,881.00 |
| Tigers | 2.07 | $3,088.00 | Rays | 1.75 | $2,621.00 |
| Diamondbacks | 2.04 | $3,103.00 | Marlins | 1.75 | $2,905.00 |
| Nationals | 2.04 | $2,949.00 | Padres | 1.77 | $2,708.00 |
| Dodgers | 2.03 | $3,028.00 | Pirates | 1.80 | $2,941.00 |
The one team in this list that you do not want to consider stacking in tournaments is the Royals. Their standard deviation is one of the lowest, so they have no upside. But teams like the Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros, Rockies and Reds all are stackable especially at home.
When looking at the data as a whole (April – June 26) so far this year, I was able to bucket or group hitting scores into three ranges.
Points Per Game
(-1.75 – 0): 32 percent
(0.25-2.25): 35 percent
(2.50 – 23.00): 33 percent
This will make more sense below, but I really wanted to focus on that 33 percent highest tier, specifically the two or three hitters that you need to win consistently in cash games along with your starting pitchers. I looked at which hitters and teams have the most "monster" games (at least 10 points) and "big" games (at least six points).
| Position | Percent |
| First Base | 77 | Outfield | 63 (188/3) | Third Base | 59 | Second Base | 45 | Catcher | 42 | Shortstop | 29 |
More confirmation that we need to spend at 1B/OF/3B. This really points out the lack of ceiling talent at shortstop outside of Carlos Correa.
| Player | # of Games | Player | # of Games |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 9 | Adam Jones | 4 |
| Bryce Harper | 7 | Albert Pujols | 4 |
| Jose Bautista | 7 | Andrew McCutchen | 4 |
| Todd Frazier | 7 | Anthony Rizzo | 4 |
| A.J. Pollock | 6 | Brett Gardner | 4 |
| Stephen Vogt | 6 | Charlie Blackmon | 4 |
| Buster Posey | 5 | Chris Davis | 4 |
| Justin Upton | 5 | Edwin Encarnacion | 4 |
| Luis Valbuena | 5 | Freddie Freeman | 4 |
| Manny Machado | 5 | Joc Pederson | 4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 5 | Justin Turner | 4 |
| Nolan Arenado | 5 | Mike Trout | 4 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 5 | Prince Fielder | 4 |
| Ryan Braun | 5 | Starling Marte | 4 |
| Steven Souza | 5 | Yoenis Cespedes | 4 |
When playing in tournaments, you need to have at least two or three players from this list to give yourself a shot at those 60-70 point lineups that place first.
| Best | Worst | ||
| Team | # of Games | Team | # of Games |
| Astros | 22 | White Sox | 3 |
| Dodgers | 22 | Phillies | 6 |
| Blue Jays | 22 | Cardinals | 7 |
| Diamondbacks | 21 | Twins | 8 |
| Reds | 20 | Braves | 10 |
| Rockies | 20 | Royals | 11 |
| Orioles | 19 | Red Sox | 12 |
| Brewers | 19 | Pirates | 12 |
| Athletics | 19 | Marlines | 12 |
| Marlins | 18 | Giants | 12 |
| Rays | 12 | ||
If any of the teams on the left are facing bad pitching, you want to take hitters 1-4 or 2-5. If you are worried about the ownership percentages being high, you can always stack this group with four hitters from a lesser owned team or starting pitcher.
The teams on the right offer very little upside in tournaments. It is hard to even take them against the worst starting pitchers even when considering ownership percentages.
| Player | # of Games |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 27 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 25 |
| Todd Frazier | 23 |
| Bryce Harper | 22 |
| Nolan Arenado | 20 |
| Josh Donaldson | 19 |
| Mike Trout | 19 |
| Albert Pujols | 18 |
| Jose Bautista | 18 |
| A.J. Pollock | 17 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 17 |
| Brian Dozier | 17 |
| Nelson Cruz | 17 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 16 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 16 |
| Jason Kipnis | 16 |
| Jay Bruce | 16 |
| Brett Gardner | 15 |
| Buster Posey | 15 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 15 |
| Chris Davis | 15 |
| Joc Pederson | 15 |
| Kris Bryant | 15 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 14 |
| J.D. Martinez | 14 |
| Justin Upton | 14 |
| Ryan Braun | 14 |
| Starling Marte | 14 |
| Stephen Vogt | 14 |
I made this list as more of a "top hitters" in cash games list, meaning we know in cash games you spend up on pitching, and less on hitting. But you still need to have at least two or three heavy hitters in your lineup to have a chance at winning. This list would be a nice cheat sheet for that. If you have a target score of 40, your starting pitcher needs a minimum of 12, leaving 28 for your hitters. Out of the 28, if you can get three of them with at least six points, then you have just 10 points left to get from your remaining five hitters.
40 – 12 (starting pitching target goal) = 28
28/8 = 3.5 points per hitter
3 top hitters x 6 points = 18 points
28 – 18 = 10 points left to hit target / 5 hitters = 2.0 points per hitter target
In the next article, I will get back into looking at who are the best hitters for cash games and tournaments based on standard deviation.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.
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