This article is part of our Fantasy 101 series.
One of the things that you come to realize when doing data analysis is how many layers of the onion can be found. You keep peeling back and digging deeper into the data, but you need to also remember that the sample size of the data is something to consider. When looking at batter and pitcher splits, only looking at the current year or prior campaign can skew the data. This week, I delve into the best players and while pointing out which scenarios to look for in daily fantasy baseball. This is probably the MOST important thing to look for when making your lineups on a daily basis.
Hitter Splits
Data is from 2011-2014
Who has the biggest differential for wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) from 2011-2014? Differential defined as the difference between what they hit against RHP and LHP.
You would think it's a superstar bat, but remember superstars typically can hit pitchers from both sides of the mound, so it's actually going to be one of those platoon mashers that we all love.
The great thing about the first player I am going to mention is he switched to a hitter-friendly environment this year and he's taking advantage of an injury to get more playing time.
The hitter in question is none other than Juan Francisco. Yep, Juan Frankie. Righty masher, home run and strikeout extraordinaire.
Here are the numbers on Francisco from 2011-2014: 671 PA; .348 wOBA, 25 percent HR/FB
You might think .348 isn't too high above league average, which sits at .315, but when you consider his wOBA (.184) and HR/FB percentage (5.6 percent) versus left-handed pitchign, the edge he has versus right-handed pitching can be exploited. Remember, most of the time in daily fantasy baseball a player's salary is not indicative of his opposing pitcher unless you are playing on DraftStreet – the rare site that does take into consideration hitter splits. Francisco, while a righty masher in all his glory, is someone you only want to use in a tournament because of his boom-or-bust results. While he's always been a great platoon player to target, Francisco's an even better choice due to his hitting environments this season -- home games in Toronto and road tilts in Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards mean a ton of at-bats in hitter-friendly parks, and it also helps that those two road parks are both prone to giving up long balls to left-handed hitters. While only having 38 at-bats in Toronto are against right-handed pitchers, the damage isn't small (five homers, 10 RBI, .555 wOBA, 1.323 OPS, 45 percent HR/FB rate). Now, of course, he won't keep up this type of pace, but whenever you see him at home against a weaker flyball RHP, you would be wise to find a way to get him in your lineup for tournament play.
Now let's go to the other side of the plate and look at the player who benefits the most from facing left-handed pitchers. I enter this with a bit of caution, as sample sizes for hitters against left-handed pitching are smaller than right-handed pitchers, so there's some variance coming. But I think this is a player you need to strongly consider when looking for value plays in daily fantasy baseball.
Ed Lucas. Who? Isn't that guy an actor? (That's Ed Norton, Edward Burns, or Ed Harris you might be thinking of). Lucas is a former eighth-round pick out of Dartmouth, who is now turning 32 and made his debut for the Marlins last year. Lucas can play multiple positions and received almost 400 at-bats last year, but he only has 30 this year. Why am I even mentioning this guy? Because his salary is always going to be dirt-cheap and he produces at the plate when in the lineup. When he plays, he typically bats second in the lineup. His career wOBA versus lefties is .403 in 119 at-bats. That's enough of a sample size for me to stand up and take notice. His career wOBA versus lefties gets a bump up to .456 on the road. Now I know there are going to be people who jump up and scream sample size, but this is a guy who you can get for just about minimum salary every night and if you play him against left-handed pitching the chances of him giving value back is tremendous.
Batters to use vs. LHP (best differential and HR/FB percent)
| Hitter | wOBA | HR/FB ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Wilin Rosario | .430 | 30 percent |
| Ryan Braun | .456 | 25 percent |
| Andrew McCutchen | .452 | 17 percent |
| Starling Marte | .427 | 21 percent |
| Anthony Rendon | .383 | 15 percent |
| Rajai Davis | .353 | |
| Jeff Baker | .357 | 18 percent |
| Derek Norris | .384 | 17 percent |
| Derek Jeter | .403 | 20 percent |
| Cody Ross | .388 | 15 percent |
| Salvador Perez | .403 | 13 percent |
| Buster Posey | .423 | 16 percent (use on road) |
| Brian Dozier | .374 | 14 percent |
| Shane Victorino | .400 | |
| Jonathan Lucroy | .403 | 14 percent |
| Kevin Frandsen | .375 | |
| Junior Lake | .381 | 20 percent |
| Jonny Gomes | .382 | 16 percent |
| Nelson Cruz | .408 | 22 percent |
| Dayan Viciedo | .376 | 15 percent |
| Dustin Pedroia | .403 | |
| Ian Kinsler | .390 | 12 percent |
| David Wright | .406 |
Batters to use vs. RHP (best differential and HR/FB percent)
| Hitter | wOBA | HR/FB ratio | Matt Adams | .369 | 15 percent |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Jones | .350 | 15 percent |
| David DeJesus | .352 | |
| John Jaso | .363 | |
| Justin Morneau | .363 | 13 percent |
| Pedro Alvarez | .334 | 24 percent |
| Chris Davis | .389 | 26 percent |
| Shin-Soo Choo | .401 | 18 percent |
| Christian Yelich | .370 | 23 percent |
| Ryan Howard | .367 | 22 percent |
| Brandon Moss | .393 | 21 percent |
| Robinson Cano | .407 | 20 percent |
| Josmil Pinto | .405 | 19 percent |
| Bryce Harper | .378 | 18 percent |
| Adam Lind | .363 | 18 percent |
| Miguel Montero | .367 | 13 percent |
| Andre Ethier | .379 | |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | .352 | 19 percent |
| Chase Utley | .373 | |
| Carlos Gonzalez | .401 | 23 percent |
| Freddie Freeman | .380 | |
| Joe Mauer | .381 | |
| Prince Fielder | .398 | 19 percent |
| David Ortiz | .421 | 19 percent |
Pitchers to Target Against
For good reason a lot of the awful pitchers that made this list are currently not in the majors (Jonathan Sanchez vs. RHB, Ricky Romero vs. RHB, Jason Marquis, Nick Blackburn) or they are delegated to the bullpen (Jeff Francis vs. RHB, Esmil Rogers vs. LHB), but we can still target many of the ones who are the best to exploit for wOBA differential, HR/FB percentage, and LD percentage.
Joe Saunders versus RHB - Saunders has the worst wOBA differential over the past three years for any starting pitcher at .376 vs. RHB compared to .235 vs. LHB. Here's hoping that Saunders can get back into a starting rotation for a major league team so we can take advantage. He's currently with the Rangers and with Martin Perez going down, we can only hope he gets the call. Can you imagine those July games in Texas with Saunders on the mound? You can't price righ-handed hitters high enough for me in that situation.
Charlie Morton vs. LHB – Morton has pitched in two favorable pitching environments with Atlanta and Pittsburgh making his home splits look very nice, but when Morton gets outside those friendly confines things start to implode. His career road wOBA allowed versus LHB is .411. Get your primo left-handed hitters in those hitter friendly environments when Morton takes the hill. Just for kicks, I looked at Morton's hot zone map vs. LHB. The strike zone area is completely red, so anything over the plate and it's bad news.
Jeremy Guthrie vs. LHB – Guthrie has allowed a .368 wOBA to LHB over the past three seasons along with a 1.57 HR/9, which is one of the worst in baseball.
Here are some of the worst pitchers you can exploit vs LHB:
Bronson Arroyo - 1.95 HR/9, 17 percent HR/FB, .364 wOBA
Colby Lewis - 1.73 HR/9, 13 percent HR/FB, .353 wOBA
Bud Norris - 1.33 HR/9, 12 percent HR/FB, .360 wOBA
Bartolo Colon - 1.41 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .337 wOBA
Dan Straily - 1.65 HR/9, 12 percent HR/FB, .338 wOBA
Roberto Hernandez - 1.34 HR/9, 16 percent HR/FB, .365 wOBA
Ricky Nolasco - 1.10 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .349 wOBA
Gavin Floyd - 1.52 HR/9, 15 percent HR/FB, .356 wOBA
Jake Arrieta - 1.51 HR/9, 15 percent HR/FB, .351 wOBA
Juan Nicasio - 1.43 HR/9, 14 percent HR/FB, .350 wOBA
Shelby Miller - 1.26 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .340 wOBA
Dillon Gee - 1.28 HR/9, 13 percent HR/FB, .340 wOBA
Lance Lynn - 0.97 HR/9, 10 percent HR/FB, .351 wOBA
Justin Masterson - 0.84 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .338 wOBA
Dylan Axelrod - 1.86 HR/9, 15 percent HR/FB, .369 wOBA
Edinson Volquez - .350 wOBA
Here are the worst pitchers vs RHB:
Drew Pomeranz - 1.37 HR/9, 14 percent HR/FB, .367 wOBA
Mike Pelfrey - GB pitcher, no K's .361 wOBA
Franklin Morales - 1.58 HR/9, 13 percent HR/FB, .361 wOBA
Jacob Turner - 1.61 HR/9, 14 percent HR/FB, .360 wOBA
Kevin Correia - 1.22 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .343 wOBA
Tom Koehler - 1.25 HR/9, 14 percent HR/FB, .343 wOBA
Eric Stults - 0.93 HR/9, 8.0 percent HR/FB, .342 wOBA
Jorge De La Rosa - 1.02 HR/9, 11 percent HR/FB, .341 wOBA
Felix Doubront - 1.19 HR/9, 13 percent HR/FB, .337 wOBA
John Danks - 1.30 HR/9, 12 percent HR/FB, .336 wOBA
Hector Santiago - 1.45 HR/9, 12 percent HR/FB, .333 wOBA
