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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today in the third game of this three-game series. This is a rubber game to win the series after these teams split the first two games. The Diamondbacks were up late in both games, but they blew a two-out, one-run lead in the first game to get walked off and then blew out the Dodgers in Game 2 after the Dodgers went up 4-1 in the first inning. The Dodgers are 4-4 against the Diamondbacks this season, so these teams have been playing each other close despite the Dodgers having a way better record than the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are 53-34 this season and they are 26-17 at home. They have a +112 run differential which is good for third best in all of Major League Baseball. The Diamondbacks are just 42-44 this season and 20-23 on the road. They still have a negative run differential at -6, but they are just 17-26 against teams over .500 this season. These two teams faced off last season in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in three games, so there is plenty of history here and it makes sense that the Diamondbacks can get up for these games but struggle against just about anyone else.
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Zac Gallen is starting for the Diamondbacks today and he is their ace. He has made just one start since coming off the IL and he absolutely dominated the Athletics at home allowing just one hit, one walk and no runs. He has not faced the Dodgers yet this season, but he pitched against them twice last season. His first start against them last season was on the first day of the season and he allowed five runs and three walks in just 4.2 innings pitched. He only faced them one other time last season with both starts against them being on the road. In his second start, he allowed four home runs and six runs in 5.1 innings pitched. He also allowed three walks again. So his recent history against the Dodgers isn't the best, although both those starts were on the road. He gets to face a thinned-out Dodgers lineup today, but this will also be the first time he gets to face the Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani in it. Landon Knack is making just his seventh career start for the Dodgers and he has pitched very well so far in his career. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his starts in his short career. He also already faced the Diamondbacks once this season on the road and he allowed just one run in five innings pitched. He pitched very well in his two June starts, allowing just one run in 9.2 innings pitched.
The Dodgers are still missing Mookie Betts and they could be without Will Smith tonight, although I think he will be in the lineup against the Dodgers' division rivals. The Dodgers are ranked second in the league in wOBA against righties this season. The Diamondbacks are ranked 12th in the league in wOBA against righties this season and they have been seeing the ball pretty well in each of these first two games, scoring five and 12 runs, respectively. There is a big mismatch in the bullpens overall, though. The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen ERA in the league, while the Diamondbacks have the 26th-best bullpen ERA. If you just look at the top relievers on both sides, both teams have very good options to close games and neither team should have to extend their bullpen much with these two starters on the mound. However, I still think the Dodgers will win this series at home.
BEST BET
Dodgers ML -130 vs. Diamondbacks (DraftKings)
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