This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
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Labor Day Weekend is a few days away, signaling the transition from summer to fall. A fantastic time of the year. It also means baseball is starting to wrap up the regular season as it heads for the home playoff stretch. While the games are being magnified even closer than before, it leaves a chance for players to leave their mark. There's one guy I'm over the moon excited about watching this evening.
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Dylan Crews Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
The 2023 second overall pick out of LSU, Dylan Crews, got the nod for this evening to make his MLB debut. Exciting stuff. For me, it's surreal, but not surprising to have seen him as a star at LSU that feels like five minutes ago to becoming a call-up the season after he was drafted. There's a real case Crews is the best college player of all time, which is why he was commemorated with the coveted Golden Spikes award last year. My analysis of Crews throughout college was simple: Extremely high floor with a very high ceiling.
Crews showed maturity as a hitter when it came to plate discipline and pitch recognition (71:46 BB:K ratio in 2023, 42:56 in 2022, 39:44 in 2021) at the college level. What makes him so dangerous at the plate is his love and obsession to use center and right field as much as any hitter you'll see. As he gets bigger and stronger, the power should come along at the next level (58 career homers at LSU across three seasons). My projection is he becomes a 20-25 home run guy in the pros.
As a fielder, he was simply one of the best at any position. The three center field generals I highlight as the best are Crews, Vance Honeycutt and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Even in the Majors, we're unlikely to see many better fielders, regardless of position. Crews should be getting a decent amount of chances to patrol his usual CF spot like a New Jersey State Trooper. Throughout his entire college career, he only made three errors in 470 total chances. This kid is going to be a special player. All around menace of average, on-base percentage (OBP), some power, some steals and great defense.
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Getting around to the play of the day, Crews faces the Yankees this evening. Nestor Cortes has the ball and he's been bad overall this season, but even worse on the road. Pitching to a 5.45 ERA and .287 opponents' batting average, there leaves some room for Washington's offense to capitalize. The books rob you with pricing for a lot of things, which includes Crews to record 1+ hit at about a -160 price. He's a top-three prospect in baseball, but still, it's ridiculous.
That's why I think there's an edge in over 1.5 total bases at +150. He's a big-time singles and doubles hitter with the chance of pulling off a signature Crews Piss Missile. Of course, this isn't college or even the minors, but what I know about Crews is this dude just rakes. It's a feasible bet in a feasible matchup. I have to get something down on my guy. A tater at +600 may also be worth a sprinkle since Cortes has given up 21 of them this season.
Big day for Dylan Crews. Let's capitalize.
BEST MLB BET TODAY
Dylan Crews Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150 FanDuel Sportsbook)
