This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Expert Picks for April 4, 2023
MLB Betting Picks From a 28-year Professional
The new pitch clock era of MLB baseball is off and running and the data so far would not reveal any major changes to the performance measures of the 30 teams. Granted, MLB has played only a few games to the 2023 season and the sample size is small, but compared to previous seasons the only change has been far shorter game times. Over each team's first four games, there have been 73 home runs, 473 hits, an average of 1.22 multiple-run-innings, and 4.75 runs per game scored. By comparison, the first four games in the 2022 season saw 64 home runs, 427 hits, 0.97 multiple-run innings, and 3.87 RPG scored. over the past 20 seasons little has changed so far in the 2023 season except that there are far more opposite-field hits being recorded given the removal of the defensive shift.
Philadelphia Phillies 
at New York Yankees 
The Phillies have started the season with a severe hangover from their loss in the World Series to the Houston Astros and the season-ending injury to Rhys Hoskins. Bryce Harper is recovering well from his offseason surgery but remains sidelined for the foreseeable future. Still, this edition of the Phillies is extremely talented and they will figure it out and start winning games.
A Highly Profitable Situational Betting System
The following situational betting system has produced consistent profits over the past five seasons and has earned a 29-25 record for 54% winning bets averaging a +178 underdog wager and producing a highly profitable 45% return on investment (ROI). The requirements are:
- Bet on road teams in an inter-league matchup and face a -135 or greater host
- The host averaged 1.25 or more home runs per game in their previous season
- The host played at home and scored at least 8 runs in their previous game
The Yankees averaged an MLB-leading 1.56 home runs per game last season and defeated the Phillies 8-1 Monday. I am betting the Phillies at +135 on the money line. Be sure to check out all the best MLB odds and shop to get the best price.
Player Prop Best Bets for Yankees vs. Phillies
Bet Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run +235 at DraftKings
Sign up at DraftKings using the DraftKings promo code to unlock $150 in bonus bets when you place a $5 wager. For Phillies fans, check out the latest PA sports betting promos for the best deals in your area. Yankees fans can get in on the action by taking a look at the New York sports betting sites and bonus bets.
New York Mets 
vs Milwaukee Brewers 
The Brewers defeated the Mets 10-0 in the first game of this three-game series and have won 16 of the past 21 games against the Mets since the 2016 season. The Brewers rookie Brice Turang hit his first career home run, a grand slam, and veteran starter Freddy Peralta picked six scoreless innings to earn the win. The Mets had problems scoring runs last season and they appear to be challenged again this season despite many offseason moves.
The Mets may not have to score many runs to get the win Tuesday having veteran starter Max Scherzer (1-0, 4.05 ERA) on the hill. The Brewers counter with their veteran left-handed starter Wade Miley, who will be seeking his 100th career win. For his career, Scherzer is just 3-3 despite posting a stingy 2.01 ERA and a 0.821 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Brewers. Miley has made six career starts against the Mets a posted a pedestrian 1-1 record with a 3.72 ERA and a 1.486 WHIP.
Brewers vs Mets Best Bets
Bet the Under 8 Runs (FanDuel Sportsbook)
My predictive models point to a solid betting opportunity on the Under and always shop for the best prices possible. Scherzer is 41-20 Under the posted total for his career when facing NL Central opponents. Brewers skipper Craig Counsel is 57-35 Under when facing teams that average four or fewer walks
The following situational betting system has earned a highly profitable 43-18 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons and not a single losing record season has occurred over these five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet the Under with a road team that averaged 0.65 or fewer errors per game last season
- The road team is coming off a game getting four or fewer hits
The Mets had three hits in yesterday's loss.
The FanDuel promo code gets new customers a No Sweat First Bet worth up to $1,000.
Player Prop Best Bets for Brewers vs Mets
Wade Miley Over 3.5 strikeouts -140 at DraftKings
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts -110 at DraftKings
