This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This is always one of the trickiest DFS slates of the season. We have the trade deadline Tuesday, and there will be dozens of moves over the next 24 hours or so. That always makes things chaotic from a DFS standpoint. We're just hopeful none of our picks will be affected by those inevitable moves. Most transactions will likely happen after Monday's games, but you need to monitor them before filling out lineups. With that in mind, let's get started with two cheap pitchers we like on this slate.
Pitching
Alec Marsh, KC at CWS ($7,700)
This is a risky play, but Marsh is a good value in a matchup like this. Let's start there because the White Sox have one of the worst offenses I've ever seen. Chicago sits last in runs scored, on-base percentage (OBP), OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. Marsh has been better than his 4.75 ERA would indicate, with the righty registering a 4.20 xFIP and 1.24 WHIP. He's also got a 9.5 K/9 rate across his last nine starts and should be able to put all that together to cruise to a quality start against Chicago.
Jordan Montgomery, ARI vs. WAS ($7,200)
It's difficult to get excited about a pitcher who has an ERA that looks like a phone number, but Montgomery is starting to find it. The lefty has scored at least 13 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts, displaying a 26-point upside in that span. That's the guy we've seen over the last two years, with Montgomery maintaining a 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in that span. We have to assume this guy will regress to those numbers. A home matchup with Washington should track him in the right direction. The Nationals rank 19th in runs scored, 25th in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA, with Montgomery dropping 27 DraftKings points against them in their last matchup.
Top Targets
Ketel Marte, ARI (vs. Mitchell Parker) $5,600
Marte has quietly been one of the best players in baseball. The second baseman hit his 23rd homer on Saturday, tallying a .366 OBP and .902 OPS. What's truly absurd are his splits against southpaws, sporting a .415 OBP, .708 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.123 OPS against them. That's even more ridiculous when you consider his recent run, registering a .482 OBP and 1.308 OPS across his last 13 fixtures. That won't bode well for Parker – we'll dive into his pitiful numbers later.
Oneil Cruz, PIT (vs. Jake Bloss) $5,100
Cruz got off to a bumpy start this season, but this talented shortstop has been amazing for two months now. The Statcast beast has a .367 OBP, .639 SLG and 1.006 OPS across his last 19 games. Almost all of that damage has come against right-handers, totaling a .343 OBP, .510 SLG and .853 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. His power-speed combo makes him an outstanding option against Bloss, with the rookie amassing a 6.94 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
Bargain Bats
Willi Castro, MIN (vs. Jose Quintana) $4,700
It can be challenging to stack Minnesota with how much they change their lineup, but Castro has been hitting leadoff against lefties for most of the season. That's the first major boost, with Castro compiling a .326 batting average (AVG), .526 SLG and .893 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That's all you can ask for from such an affordable player, especially since this speedster has 43 steals since the start of last season. A matchup with Quintana isn't going to scare us, who has collected a 4.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP since 2019. Stacking the Twins could work around Castro, with Royce Lewis ($5,200), Byron Buxton ($4,800) and Ryan Jeffers ($4,100) all having the platoon advantage against Quintana.
Jackson Chourio, MIL (vs. Grant Holmes) $3,500
This rookie got off to a rough start this season, but he's finally finding his form at this level. The former top prospect has a multi-hit game in five of his last six outings, generating a .344 AVG, .385 OBP, .533 SLG and .919 OPS across his last 24 fixtures. That's forced Milwaukee to move this talented youngster up to the leadoff spot, but it's no surprise since he had 42 homers and 59 steals in just 226 games in the minors. We love that since he matches up with a journeyman rookie. We'll dive into his numbers below.
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta (Grant Holmes): Brice Turang ($4,500), Willy Adames ($4,300), Joey Ortiz ($3,700) and Jackson Chourio ($3,500)
It's rare to see a pitcher make his first start at the age of 28, but that's what Atlanta's being forced into here. They're throwing Holmes to the wolves, with the righty registering a 4.53 ERA and 1.47 WHIP throughout his minor league career. That's no short stint, either, because this guy spent a decade in the minors before a call-up as a reliever this season. That's scary against this mauling Milwaukee lineup, ranked third in OBP and ninth in runs scored.
One reason we love this Milwaukee stack is that their bats are cheap. We don't have to pay more than $4,500 for any of these guys, with Turang hitting second behind Chourio. The speedster is one of the league leaders with 31 steals, averaging 7.8 DraftKings points per game. Adames is the power bat behind these guys, accruing a .379 OBP, .513 SLG and .892 OPS across his last 20 games. Ortiz is also a sneaky option, amassing a .354 OBP and .769 OPS against righties this year.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals (Mitchell Parker): Ketel Marte ($5,600), Christian Walker ($5,300), Eugenio Suarez ($3,600)
Many people might not realize it, but the National League champs are starting to get hot. Despite blowing a game on Sunday, the Diamondbacks have won 10 of their last 14 games. More importantly, they're averaging 6.1 runs per game this month. That's the second-highest total in the league, which looks even better since they rank third in OBP and sixth in OPS against left-handers. That won't bode well for Parker, providing a 7.48 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across his last six starts.
We already discussed Ketel as our favorite bat of the day, but he makes a wonderful pairing with Walker. The slugging first baseman is well on his way to his third straight 30-homer season, collecting a .350 OBP and .854 OPS against lefties in that span. Suarez is the sneaky option of the bunch because he's quietly getting hot. He has 258 career homers and comes into this matchup with a .365 OBP and .965 OPS across his last 21 outings. In addition, Suarez has a .358 career OBP and .825 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
