This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
After something of a play-in day Monday, the real MLB postseason kicks off Tuesday. As is the case for the next several days, we'll have baseball being played for nearly the entire day, including some elite pitching matchups. Let's jump into the slate.
Pitchers
The most common pairing is likely to be Framber Valdez ($8,500) and Corbin Burnes ($8,300). It's hard to argue with that logic, as the Tigers have the fourth-worst wOBA in the league against southpaws this season while also striking out at the seventh-highest clip in that split – worst among the playoff teams. Meanwhile, the Royals have a .256 wOBA in the last 30 days, which should make us question how they've reached the postseason.
There are a couple of other options worth considering, one for their skill and the other for the matchup. Even with several other strong starts on the mound, Tarik Skubal ($9,600) stands out with a SIERA over half a point lower than anyone else getting the ball Tuesday. A matchup against the Astros does dent his intrigue a bit. In contrast, Luis Severino ($7,200) is intriguing because of his price and matchup. The Brewers have struck out at a whopping 26.5 percent clip across the last month.
Top Hitters
Freddy Peralta stands out as a potential option to target due to his homer rate (1.4 HR/9) and corresponding hard-hit rate (8.7 percent barrel rate, highest among pitchers on the slate). That makes some of the Mets' top power hitters interesting names to targets. Pete Alonso ($4,600), Francisco Lindor ($5,600) and Mark Vientos ($4,600) each own an ISO above .200 against righties this season.
Value Bats
For those that followed along during the regular season, Andy Ibanez ($2,800) was regularly a target with a southpaw on the mound. He should slot into the leadoff spot and has an impressive .349 wOBA against lefties for the year.
Stacks to Consider
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves (SP TBD): Luis Arraez ($3,800), Fernando Tatis ($5,500), Manny Machado $5,400)
We don't know exactly who will be on the mound for Atlanta, but Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder were all floated as potential options. Any of that trio would comfortably be the worst starter on the slate, making San Diego an obvious stacking candidate. From a projection standpoint, this checks out as our optimizer currently has six Padres among the 13 highest projected hitters.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets (Luis Severino): Brice Turang ($4,000), William Contreras ($4,700), Jackson Chourio ($4,300)
We mentioned Severino as a potential value pitcher based on the matchup, so it's admittedly a bit counterintuitive to then suggest stacking Milwaukee. However, Severino's lack of skill relative to the known starters stands out. He has the highest SIERA, lowest strikeout rate and highest home-run rate of all pitchers taking the mound. There's also the benefit of this being a cheap stack, making it possible to pay up for two elite pitchers or a strong secondary stack.
