This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We get another great four-day slate of baseball Wednesday after a few compelling matchups on the first day of the Wild Card Round. As could be expected, there is less range in the skills profile we see from pitchers and the quality of lineups they will face. That makes the relatively poor-performing outliers easy to target, leading to more consistent or concentrated rates. Today, that's likely to be the Astros and Mets. We'll dive into more detail below.
Pitchers
We have five pitchers priced between $8,700 and $8,000. Hunter Brown ($8,300) is the straightforward target of the group. His 25.1 percent strikeout rate is the highest of any pitcher in the pool and the Tigers have the worst wOBA of any team currently playing against right-handed pitching. Because of how much Brown stands out, he's likely to be very popular.
For those who want to pivot from Brown, Joe Musgrove ($8,000) would be my choice. He had an up-and-down regular season but was very strong down the stretch. The perception of Atlanta's lineup has been stronger than their production all season.
Of the remaining options in the $7,000 range, Zach Eflin ($7,500) is the straightforward choice. If the Royals beat the Orioles it will be based on the strength of their pitching staff, which was on display Tuesday. Even if Baltimore loses again, Eflin should turn in a decent performance.
Top Hitters
Rhys Hoskins ($4,000) is in the ambiguous price range between value and top bat, but regardless of exactly where we place him, he's a good option. We're looking for small margins at this time of the year. Three factors point to Hoskins:
- Sean Manaea has the lowest groundball rate of any pitcher on the mound Wednesday.
- Milwaukee is a good park for homers.
- Hoskins has a .236 ISO against lefties for the season.
Houston will also probably be a popular team on this slate, so it's worth discussing them briefly in a slight detour from our typical style in this article. Reese Olson doesn't have the name value of the rest of the pitchers on the slate, but by skills, he holds his own in terms of strikeout rate and K-BB ratio. More importantly, he limits hard contact and home runs by keeping batted balls on the ground. Houston certainly could have a strong offensive performance, but I would target both teams in the Brewers-Mets game above the Astros.
Value Bats
Zach Eflin had a homer problem to end the season, serving up at least one long ball in each of his final four starts. Lefties don't fare well in Camden Yards, but MJ Melendez ($3,000) has a .224 ISO against righties this season. That's second on the Royals behind only Bobby Witt (who is also a good option).
Stacks to Consider
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Frankie Montas): Francisco Lindor ($5,700), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500), Pete Alonso ($4,700)
Montas was slightly better after being traded from Cincinnati to Milwaukee in July, but he still walks a lot of batters (3.9 BB/9) and gives up a lot of home runs (1.6 HR/9). Those are the boxes we want to check for stacks. The Mets' offense has momentum after putting up a lot of runs Monday against Atlanta and in Game 1 against the Brewers.
