This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We have a fascinating pitcher's duel in Houston between Hunter Brown and Cristopher Sanchez, but that matchup is a tough one to dissect. Those are two good offenses facing two expensive pitchers, so we'll avoid that game altogether. There are seven other games on this afternoon card, with only one game happening at night. It's difficult to understand why MLB did that, but they left us with a hearty day slate to examine. With that in mind, let's get started with two middling pitchers!
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Pitching
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. TOR ($8,900)
Bibee has quietly been one of the best pitchers in the AL for three years. The righty has a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP since his call-up in 2023, while posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP this year. We're really encouraged that Bibee is trending back towards those career norms, collecting a 3.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across his last 11 starts. In addition, Bibee has a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home this year. All of that is trending in the right direction against a righty-heavy Toronto lineup, with the Blue Jays ranked 15th in OPS and 17th in runs scored against right-handers. In three career matchups with the Jays, Bibee is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 18 innings.
Hayden Birdsong, SF vs. MIA ($8,200)
Miami hitting in San Francisco just sounds like a recipe for disaster. This offense has been one of the worst over the last two seasons, ranked 28th or 29th in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA since then. That's terrifying in a pitcher's haven like Oracle Park because they're only projected to score 3.5 runs in this game. Birdsong definitely plays a factor in that tiny total, with the righty registering a 3.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. He also has a 3.39 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 rate at home since his call-up, scoring 34 FanDuel points in a matchup with Miami just a few weeks ago. We also don't mind that Birdsong is a -180 favorite.
Top Targets
Teoscar Hernandez, LAD (vs. Austin Gomber) $4,000
We'll feature the Dodgers as our top stack later, but Hernandez is our favorite option on that expensive offense. Let's start with the matchup because Teo faces one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the most hitter-friendly park in the sport. That's why LA is projected to score seven runs, with Hernandez expected to bat fourth or fifth. That lineup spot is easy to understand when you see Hernandez's splits, as he sports a .380 AVG and 1.172 OPS against lefties this year and a 1.084 OPS at Coors Field throughout his career. We also love that Hernandez has a .286 AVG and .943 OPS across his last 11 outings.
Cal Raleigh, SEA (vs. Simeon Woods Richardson) $3,500
We hate to recommend such expensive players, but it's challenging to fade Raleigh right now. The catcher is the hottest hitter in the league, accruing a .410 OBP and 1.194 OPS across his last 36 contests. That isn't easy to do during any span, but Raleigh has somehow raised his game with a .545 OBP and 1.752 OPS across the last week! That's inspiring since he has better splits against right-handers, and he's facing one here with a 5.06 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. If you want to stack Seattle, we'd use Julio Rodriguez ($3,300), J.P. Crawford ($3,100) and Jorge Polanco ($3,000) with Raleigh.
Bargain Bats
Matt Wallner. MIN (vs. Emerson Hancock) $3,000
Wallner has been cold since being reinstated from the IL, but overall he's been a great hitter since reaching the majors. The outfielder has a .353 career OBP and .839 OPS since 2022. His splits against righties are a major reason for that success, as he sports a .380 OBP and .924 OPS against them since 2023. That's hard to fathom for such an affordable player, especially since Wallner is projected to hit in the heart of the Twins lineup against one of the worst pitchers on this slate. We'll discuss that more in the Stacks To Consider section.
Brenton Doyle, COL (vs. Clayton Kershaw) $2,900
Using any bat against Kershaw feels bizarre, especially a struggling one. This isn't your Cy Young Kershaw though, as he's amassed a 3.88 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since last season. That WHIP is a nightmare in a place like Coors Field, with Kershaw posting a 4.64 career ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 27 starts at Coors. That could bode well for a struggling Doyle because his only redeeming feature has been his splits. The outfielder has a .431 OBP and .913 OPS against lefties this year while amassing a .861 OPS at home since last year. It's rare to find such a talented player this cheap at altitude, so we'll take advantage.
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Gomber): Shohei Ohtani ($5,200), Mookie Betts ($3,800), Will Smith ($3,800), Tommy Edman ($3,400), T. Hernandez ($4,000)
Throwing a guy to the wolves is one thing, but this feels like throwing a guy covered in fish guts into a shark tank. There's simply no chance that Gomber gets through this game clean after he's compiled an 8.38 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this year. He also allowed nine runs in his only home start this season, and he's generated a 5.89 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in eight career starts against LA. That's no surprise since this team leads the league in most offensive categories.
Shohei is the most expensive player on this slate, but he has a .390 AVG, .763 SLG and 1.191 OPS at Coors Field in his career. As for Betts, he has the platoon advantage against Gomber and hits in the heart of the lineup as one of the best DFS producers over the last decade. Smith is one of the best catchers in baseball, tallying a .517 OBP and 1.213 OPS against lefties this year. Edman is the final piece, providing a .864 OPS against lefties since last season.
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners (Hancock): Byron Buxton ($3,900), Willi Castro ($2,900), Trevor Larnach ($3,200), Wallner ($3,000)
We've been stacking against Hancock all season. He's only in the Seattle rotation due to injuries, with the righty registering a 5.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. What's really scary is that the spacious Seattle ballpark is the only thing that has kept those averages from being among the worst in baseball, as he's totaled a 6.86 ERA and 1.73 WHIP across his last four road starts.
The Twins are far from a tasty stack given how poorly they've been playing at times this year, but Buxton is an absolute stud. He's on pace for nearly 35 homers and 25 steals, posting a .453 OBP and 1.344 OPS across his last 14 games. Castro has been moved up to the three hole, collecting a .443 OBP and 1.062 OPS across his last 23 fixtures. Larnach has the platoon advantage against Hancock and has produced a .342 OBP and .788 OPS against righties over the last three years.
