This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Top MLB Betting Picks: June 18th Best Bets & Predictions
Season record 17-20-1, -3.78 units
I really need to shake out of this slump here! It's still a long season ahead, so let's book a couple wins today!
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Rangers vs Royals Props
It's a battle of southpaws here as budding ace Kris Bubic and the Royals visit veteran Patrick Corbin and the Rangers.
Bubic flashed huge K upside very early in the 2023 season, then unfortunately busted his UCL and had TJ surgery. He returned midway through the 2024 season and pitched great for the Royals in a relief role down the stretch (2.62 ERA in 30.1 IP, 32% K%). They converted him back to the rotation this season, and if we lived in a world where Tarik Skubal pitched in the NL, Bubic would be front and center of the Cy Young conversation. In 12 starts through June 1st, he had a 1.43 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with a 19.6% K-BB%. He was on a particular heater, a 6-start run with a 0.69 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, going 7 IP in 4 of those 6 starts.
So, what do you do in 2025 if you're the Royals and you have an SP on a tear? You skip a start of course because that is exactly the time you have to manage his innings. He returned to face the Yankees on June 11th and had a rough outing, 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 BB 6 hits. Even with that, his Statcast page looks ruby red all around.
There's obviously no way to know if the break in routine caused the hiccup, or if it in fact is a hiccup or the start of a downtrend. But I am going to attack this game as if it's a blip. He gets to face a Rangers team that has hit better lately, but not so much vs. lefties. Over the last month, Texas has slashed .202/.253/.313 vs. southpaws with a 56 wRC+ that is tied for 2nd worst in MLB over that stretch. Furthermore, they have a 28% K% against lefties, also MLB's 2nd worst.
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No one got all that stoked when the Rangers signed Patrick Corbin right at the beginning of the season as the 35-year-old had just finished a long contract in DC that started well but ended extremely poorly. He's a durable innings eater, as he hasn't made less than 31 starts in a full season since 2016, but his last sub 4.66 ERA or 1.47 WHIP campaign was back in 2019.
But he's had a revival in Arlington with a 3.66 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 12 starts. Corbin doesn't exactly break the radar gun with a 91.2 fastball velo (mostly sinkers) and his 17.9% K% is pretty low, but he's kept Barrels (7.9%) and Hard Hits (36.9%) on the low side. And most importantly he's kept the Rangers in the game as he has yet to allow more than 3 earned runs in any start.
Plus, he, too gets to face a less-than-formidable lineup. KC does not whiff like the Rangers, just 20.5% vs. lefties over the last month. But they also don't hit, just a 74 wRC+ over that stretch. On the season, the Royals somehow have just 6 homers vs. lefties in 627 PA's, easily the worst in MLB.
We also have quite the betting trend confluence as these are the two best under teams in MLB vs. lefty starters. KC unders are 10-3-1 for a 43.5% ROI, while Texas Unders are 12-4 and 42.5% ROI. Texas is also the best home under team in MLB at 28-9, 44.5% ROI while Royals Road Unders are 20-14-1, 11.9% ROI. The Trend is Your Friend is a popular Wall Street saying, will it work here? Well, lets find out
MLB Best Bets
- Royals at Rangers Under 8.5 (-125 ESPN BET)
- Kris Bubic 6+ Strikeouts (-162 FanDuel)
