This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Tuesday, October 1
- Year-to-Date Record: 165-168-1
- Prior Article: 0-3 ( -3.00 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't place any wagers on the best online sportsbooks without first ensuring you have the most up-to-date MLB odds.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Detroit Tigers 
at Houston Astros 
Tarik Skubal against Framber Valdez is an incredible matchup in Game 1 of this American League Wild Card series. The Tigers made an incredible run to get into the playoffs, but I think they are in a tough spot here against Valdez.
Both pitchers are at the top of their game, but Skubal has better splits at home (1.99 ERA) versus the road (2.86 ERA) and Valdez is much better at home (1.59 ERA in his last seven home games) versus on the road.
The Astros have a decided edge in lineup splits here with a wRC+ of 115 (fifth) on the season, while the Tigers have an 88 wRC+ (23rd). The edge in splits for the Astros plus the experience has me on them in Game 1.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Astros
- Astros ML for 1 Unit (-143 at BetRivers)
Kansas City Royals 
at Baltimore Orioles 
Much like the Tigers, the Royals have been a great story for baseball but we also have to consider they took advantage of the Chicago White Sox, who ended up as the worst team ever in terms of win-loss record.
Both teams have struggled recently, but the Royals have significant home/road splits that will not help them in this series. They have also been the lowest scoring team in baseball since September 1st.
The Royals are just 22nd in wRC+ (92) baseball against right-handed pitching on the road. The Orioles are sixth in wRC+ (117) against left-handed pitching at home, but they are just 25th since July 1st in the same split, which confirms how much their offense dropped in the second half.
With both offenses struggling and two strong starting pitchers (Cole Ragans versus Corbin Burnes), I like the under in this game. The total opened 7.0 runs and is already hitting 6.5 in a lot of spots, which indicates where the money is going.
MLB Picks for Royals at Orioles
- Royals/Orioles Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Mets 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
Both the Mets and Braves had to play a doubleheader on Monday and turn around to play tonight, which puts them at a clear disadvantage.
The Brewers have been dominant at home against right-handed pitching (47-34 at home and 69-45 against righties). The Mets were just 1-5 against the Brewers in the season series and it goes back to last season where they were 1-6 against them. The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 in the series, but most of the totals were 8.5 or higher, whereas today's game is just 7.5.
Freddy Peralta is a solid pitcher but his walks make him tough to back in this spot, but I love this Brewers lineup, especially against right-hander Luis Severino.
The Mets bullpen is taxed after playing in the doubleheader on Monday against the Braves.
This total opened 7.5, but there are already indications it is headed for 8.0.
MLB Picks for Mets at Brewers
- Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atlanta Braves 
at San Diego Padres 
The Braves had to win the second game of their doubleheader with the Mets on Monday to get into the playoffs. Now they get the Padres, who have the best record in baseball since July 1st.
The Braves might go with Ian Anderson (they have yet to announce a starting pitcher) while the Padres have Michael King on the mound. Anderson has not pitched in the big leagues since 2022, which shows how desperate the Braves are. King has been one of the best pitchers in the National League with a 2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.4 K/9.
This is the most lopsided matchup on Tuesday, which is why I am laying -1.5 runs and taking the Padres. I also like the Padres to go over their team total of 3.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Braves at Padres
- Padres -1.5 for 1 Unit (+140 at BetRivers)
- Padres Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Astros ML for 1 Unit (-143 at BetRivers)
- Royals/Orioles Under 7.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-135 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Padres -1.5 for 1 Unit (+140 at BetRivers)
- Padres Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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