This article is part of our MLB Team Previews series.
2015 Royals Team Preview: What Will It Take To Return to the World Series?
2014 was an up-and-down year for the Kansas City Royals, but this opportunistic squad was able to get hot at the right times, leading to their first postseason appearance since 1985. A 15-11 record in September was enough to award the Royals the final AL Wild Card spot, and a thrilling victory over the Oakland Athletics started what proved to be one of the most improbable World Series runs in MLB history. Although they ended up falling to the San Francisco Giants after a tight 3-2 loss in Game 7, optimism now thrives in this once-woeful baseball town.
The team was not without their fair share of offensive struggles, though, particularly from a power standpoint. They finished dead last in all of baseball in team home runs (95), and a .690 team OPS was barely enough to keep them out of the bottom third of the American League. However, as the Lorde anthem proclaims, "That kind of luxe just ain't for us. We claim a different kind of buzz." That kind of buzz was small ball, as the Royals' 153 stolen bases gave them 30 more than the next best AL squad (Houston). Mix that with disciplined bunting and occasional stretches of clutch hitting, and Kansas City was able to score just enough runs to get by.
A lights out bullpen was able to support a mediocre starting rotation in 2014, but that rotation will once again be a question mark. The unit took a major hit with the loss of ace James Shields, and replacing him with Edinson Volquez, even after a career-year, is surely a downgrade. Can the young Yordano Ventura step up and be a true Major League ace? Will aging pitchers Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie once again eat up enough innings to give the team a chance late in games? Will lefty Danny Duffy stay strong as a full-time starter? If all those questions can be answered, and newcomers Alex Rios and Kendrys Morales can provide a bit more pop (both big "ifs"), the sky is the limit for this up-and-coming squad.
Offseason Moves
Lost James Shields (Padres), Billy Butler (Athletics) and Norichika Aoki (Giants) via free agency.
The Royals offered Shields a one-year, $15.3 million qualifying offer shortly after the conclusion of the season, but the long-time ace instead cashed in with a four-year, $75 million deal from San Diego. Kansas City also let both Butler and Aoki walk after less-than-spectacular offensive years, but wasted little time in hitting the free agent market to replace both options. Any time a team loses an ace it will be tough to replace, but the financial flexibility afforded by allowing the 33-year-old Shields to walk helped free up space to sign several other key pieces.
Signed free agent Alex Rios (Rangers).
Rios should step in as the everyday right fielder, and if he can return to his 2012 form (25 homers, .850 OPS), Kansas City will get a major bargain. Due to oblique, ankle, toe and thumb injuries in 2014, Rios came at a discounted one-year deal, and if he can bounce back in his age-34 season, could serve as a regular No. 3 hitter for manager Ned Yost.
Signed free agent Kendrys Morales (Mariners).
Morales will fill the role vacated by the departure of Billy Butler, serving as the primary designated hitter option for manager Ned Yost. Although he hit just .206 against right-handed pitching last season, he's a professional hitter that can bat from both sides of the plate, and should be given an opportunity to lock down the cleanup spot in the batting order. Yost has been known to shuffle up his lineup, however, so if Morales doesn't produce in his age-32 season, he may go in another direction with the four-hole.
Signed free agent Edinson Volquez (Pirates).
The Pirates had enough faith in Volquez to send him to the bump for last year's Wild Card matchup after a season in which he posted a 13-7 record, 3.04 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Hoping to help fill the void left by ace James Shields, the Royals brought him in on a two-year deal with the intention of having him serve in the middle of the rotation. He had a career-best ERA and WHIP last season, but a 4.20 xFIP and 77.5 percent strand rate should serve as caution for prospective fantasy owners who think he may have turned the corner for good.
Signed free agent Kris Medlen (Braves).
Medlen is coming off a year shortened by his second Tommy John surgery, so Kansas City was able to bring him in on a low-risk, team-friendly deal. If he progresses as hoped with his recovery, Medlen could eventually compete with Jeremy Guthrie for the fifth starter's job.
Projected Lineup
Versus LHP:
1. Alcides Escobar, SS
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Alex Rios, RF
4. Kendrys Morales, DH
5. Eric Hosmer, 1B
6. Salvador Perez, C
7. Alex Gordon, LF
8. Lorenzo Cain, CF
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Versus RHP:
1. Alcides Escobar, SS
2. Eric Hosmer, 1B
3. Alex Rios, RF
4. Kendrys Morales, DH
5. Alex Gordon, LF
6. Salvador Perez, C
7. Mike Moustakas, 3B
8. Omar Infante, 2B
9. Lorenzo Cain, CF
These lineups assume that newcomers Alex Rios and Kendrys Morales will be the new occupants of the three and four spots, but manager Ned Yost did not hesitate to make lineup switches last year when his players weren't producing. If either option goes through a prolonged slump or suffers an injury, Yost could turn to Hosmer, Perez or Gordon to move up in the order and fill those vacancies. Lorenzo Cain also saw plenty of time at the three-spot near the end of 2014, so a return there, though unlikely, can't yet be ruled out.
Projected Rotation
1. Yordano Ventura
2. Danny Duffy
3. Edinson Volquez
4. Jason Vargas
5. Jeremy Guthrie
Following the departure of James Shields, the young fireballer Yordano Ventura will likely be called upon to be the team's Opening Day starter. The overall rotation should be similar to 2014, with the exception of Edinson Volquez, who could serve as a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. Kansas City will once again turn to Jeremy Guthrie to close out the rotation, but he could eventually be challenged by Kris Medlen, who is still recovering from his second Tommy John surgery. Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie should assume their regular roles as back-end rotation guys.
Closer:Greg Holland was one of the elite fantasy baseball closers for the second season in a row, as the right-hander collected 46 saves in 2014, which was second to only Fernando Rodney's mark of 48 in the American League. He also provided support in other categories, striking out 90 batters to go along with a 1.44 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Even though the Royals have several options in their bullpen that would make exceptional closers, Holland is their guy, and there's little reason to think otherwise heading into 2015. He's still on the better side of 30 years old, and his 2014 average fastball velocity of 95.8 mph was an exact match with his career average. Holland also possesses a devastating slider that he deploys frequently, and although he used a split-fingered fastball on just 2.3% of his pitches last season, it remains a weapon in his arsenal that can catch hitters off guard. He's one of the safest ninth-inning options in AL-only formats, and is arguably a top-five closer in mixed leagues.
Key Bullpen Members:
Preceding closer Greg Holland will once again be one of the deadliest 1-2 combos in the business: Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera. Davis, a converted starter, set a franchise record with 33 straight scoreless appearances, and should once again have the eighth inning. Herrera has shown the capability of hitting triple digits on the gun, and although his 2014 K/9 rate of 7.6 doesn't quite match that of Davis' (13.6), both players should be able to rack up holds. If a starting pitcher turns in a short outing, manager Ned Yost will also have Brandon Finnegan, Jason Frasor, Tim Collins and Louis Coleman to rely in in the middle innings. Finnegan would likely be the best option for long relief, but that's provided he doesn't crack the starting rotation in the spring, or is instead stretched out in the minors. Given the Royals can turn in another winner in 2015, this pen should once again produce plenty of fantasy-relevant options, especially in deeper and AL-only formats.
Notes of Import, Fantasy or Otherwise
What can fantasy owners expect from Alex Rios in his first year with the team?
Rios may end up as one of the most polarizing players in this year's drafts, as injury woes from 2014 will surely leave a bad taste in many owners' mouths. A risk-averse owner may want to avoid the 34-year-old altogether, but that leaves tons of room for profit if the veteran outfielder can return to old form. Rios still managed to offer a .311 OBP last season, and remains capable of batting in the upper-200s, with potential to rack up both runs and RBI. 15-20 long balls may be overly optimistic with Rios hitting in the spacious Kaufman Stadium, but it's worth noting that he does have three 20-homer campaigns under his belt already. Manger Ned Yost won't hesitate to run in any situation either, so a handful of stolen bases could only sweeten the pot.
Is Yordano Ventura ready to be the ace of a staff?
Ventura will likely end up as the Opening Day starter following the departure of James Shields, but can the hard-throwing righty be a fantasy "ace" as well in his age-24 season? He certainly has the stuff to blow by hitters, which may be greatest exemplified by a 97 MPH average fastball velocity in his rookie season. One can't help but question his durability, however, as Ventura tossed 208.1 combined innings in 2014 after never throwing more than 135 innings in any prior season. The wear began to show a bit last year, as elbow and back soreness forced him to miss a few starts, though none of those ailments are expected to have long-term implications. Relying on the Dominican Republic native to carry a fantasy staff may be a bit dangerous, but Ventura should still be a productive piece.
What effect will Alex Gordon's offseason wrist surgery have on his 2015 fantasy outlook?
Gordon is expected to be limited in spring training after undergoing offseason wrist surgery in late-December, and it's currently a bit uncertain how the ailment may affect him at the arrival of the regular season. The four-time Gold Glove Award winner wowed Royals' fans with his diving catches last season, but those types of plays usually cause fantasy owners to cringe, as they are one of the easiest ways to aggravate a wrist injury. If he maintains his health, Gordon should be a steady force on the offensive end after leading the team in home runs (19) and RBI (74) in 2014. He may not be able to bring a team to fantasy pay-dirt by himself, but his consistent production over the past four seasons make Gordon a useful piece.
What type of fantasy production will the leadoff spot in Ned Yost's order provide?
Yost began the 2014 season leading off games with Norichika Aoki, but a groin injury forced him to turn to Lorenzo Cain as a temporary solution. He went back to Aoki after his DL stint, but made the move to Alcides Escobar in mid-September – a move that lasted throughout the postseason. Escobar is seemingly the leading candidate to bat first in the 2015 lineup, and a full season there could give him major fantasy potential. The defensive mastermind has eclipsed 30 steals in each year he's batted .285 or better, and if the tweaks to his approach that led to success at the plate in 2014 hold up, there's little reason to expect he can't do it again in his age-28 season. His durability is also commendable, as Escobar played in all 162 games last year, and hasn't missed more than four games since the 2010 season. A full-time gig in the leadoff role could once again result in major runs and steals production, making Escobar a serviceable shortstop option that should come without a high price tag.
How long of a leash will Yost have with Mike Moustakas in his fifth Major League season?
Moustakas batted a woeful .152/.223/.320 during April and May of last season, which eventually lead to a demotion to the minors. When injuries struck the Kansas City infield, he was recalled after a stint that lasted just over 10 days, but if Yost did it once, what's to stop him from pushing for the move again? Christian Colon has shown flashes of potential, and could be a candidate to take over third base duties, at least against left-handed pitching (Moustakas managed just a .172 average against southpaws last year). In his defense, Moustakas caught fire in the postseason, and that momentum should keep his job safe in the short term. Nonetheless, the defensive wiz could be a bounceback candidate this season, and the metrics from 2014 back that up. He posted a three-year low strikeout rate of 14.8 percent, and his BABIP also screamed bad luck, as a .220 average on balls in play was 37 points lower than any other season in his career. Relying on Moose to be a regular third baseman or corner infielder in a fantasy lineup may be risky, but the payoff potential is tough to ignore.
Strengths: The Royals' bullpen remains quite possibly the most coveted unit in all of baseball, as getting to the seventh inning with a lead all but locked up a victory in the 2014 season. Kansas City has one of the premier closers in Greg Holland to finish off games, but the path leading up to him is just as menacing. Wade Davis was one of the best set-up men in the game last year with an untouchable 0.85 WHIP, and he was preceded by Kelvin Herrera, who is no stranger to hitting triple digits on the gun. Bullpen arms such as Jason Frasor and Tim Collins may see late-inning work on most teams, but they'll serve primarily as middle relievers in this stacked group. Yost also can turn to lefty Brandon Finnegan to eat innings, as the 21-year-old proved capable during their postseason run.
Kansas City will also look to use their baserunning skills in tight situations this year, as guys like Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar should be candidates to swipe 20-30 bags. When healthy, newcomer Alex Rios is plenty capable on the basepaths, and players such as Omar Infante, Alex Gordon and Eric Hosmer can't be ignored either. Jarrod Dyson will also be used in late-game scenarios as a pinch runner and defensive replacement, which is likely enough to make him rosterable in deeper and AL-only formats.
Weakness: Kansas City finished dead last in the majors last season with 95 total home runs, and the power aspect of their offense isn't looking much brighter for 2015. They made an effort to improve this facet of their game by signing free agent Kendrys Morales to replace Billy Butler (nine homers in 2014), but Morales produced just eight long balls in 401 plate appearances last year after recording back-to-back 20-homer campaigns in the previous two years. They don't have a single player on the roster that hit more than 20 four-baggers in 2014, and that figure might represent the ceiling for the hitters that call Kaufman Stadium home. Fantasy owners should be able to find plenty of baserunning on this year's Royals squad, but they'll likely have to sacrifice power to get it.
Rising:Lorenzo Cain is coming off a career-year in which he hit .301/.339/.412 and even worked his way into the three-spot in the order for the majority of the postseason. He's setting himself up for a major deal by the time he hits free agency, but should continue to provide runs and steals for fantasy owners in 2015, even if maintaining those batting numbers is a lofty expectation.
Declining:Omar Infante dealt with several nagging injuries in 2014, and chose to forego surgery this offseason. He's expected to be ready for Opening Day, but if pain or other injuries re-emerge, Infante risks once again being delegated to longer DL stints. Prospect Christian Colon has been knocking on the door for quite some time, and could take over the job at some point this season, especially if Infante can't improve upon the lowest OPS (.632) since his rookie season.
Sleeper:Mike Moustakas struggled mightily early in 2014, but was able to redeem himself with an OPS of .817 and five homers in the postseason. A 20-homer bounceback campaign isn't too unreasonable of an expectation, and considering how much his stock has fallen, he could be picked up for a bargain on draft day.
Supersleeper:Brandon Finnegan showed up in a big way in the 2014 postseason, offering manager Ned Yost several shutdown innings in high-pressure situations. He could have an outside shot at late-inning work should the injury bug bite the bullpen, but he was originally drafted to be a starter, and under the right circumstances, could compete for a role in the back end of the rotation. At the very least, Finnegan should be on the radar in dynasty formats.
Top Prospects:
Brandon Finnegan, LHP – The TCU product rose quickly through the Kansas City farm system in 2014 after being drafted 17th overall in June, and showed enough promise for manager Ned Yost to be comfortable using the 21-year-old in high-leverage playoff situations down the stretch. He pitched well in those pressure-filled scenarios, though allowing five runs in his ultimate appearance left a black mark on his final stat line. The potential is certainly there, however, as Finnegan has solid command of a mid-90s fastball, in addition to both a slider and changeup. He displayed the ability to strike hitters out in the majors, fanning 14 batters in 13 innings during the regular season and playoffs. If those secondary pitches continue to develop as hoped, Finnegan could work his way into the back end of the rotation, but he can always use a fastball-slider combo in the bullpen as a fallback option. He won't have much fantasy value working in the bullpen behind Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera, but a starting role could make him an intriguing sleeper heading into 2015.
Kyle Zimmer, RHP -- Shoulder issues plagued Zimmer's 2014 campaign, as the former fifth-overall pick was slow in his recovery during the early months of the season, and was eventually shut down for nearly two months in May. He was able to work back to rookie ball in August, and appeared to be back on track to get in some extra work during the Arizona Fall League, but that came to a grinding halt when he experienced renewed shoulder tightness and was shut down again for the remainder of the fall/winter season. Finally, some good news arrived in October when his MRIs came back free of structural damage, but he still needed to undergo a debridement of his rotator cuff and labrum. The current expectation is that Zimmer will use extended spring training to build up strength in anticipation of a late-April return. When healthy, the right-hander brings a mid-90s fastball with an above-average slider and curveball to the table, and is widely regarded as the top pitching prospect in the Kansas City farm system. If he can exceed expectations and put together a full season, Zimmer could see MLB time towards the end of 2015, but the Royals will surely take a cautious approach to his development.
Christian Colon, 2B -- Colon saw his first taste of major league action in 2014, as injuries to Omar Infante and the heavy slumping of Mike Moustakas left reps available at both second and third base. He had to compete with second baseman Johnny Giavotella for playing time, but ended up logging eight more plate appearances than his infield counterpart. Colon's season was cut short by a broken finger suffered September 2, but he was able to return for limited work in the playoffs, though he was left off the World Series roster in favor of the veteran experience of Jayson Nix. When healthy, Colon provided the Royals with a solid .864 OPS, but his advancement in the organization will likely be limited by the steady play of Alcides Escobar, who plays his natural position at shortstop. Colon may be able to crack the Opening Day roster as a utility player, but in all likelihood he'll start off at Triple-A Omaha, where he slashed .311/.366/.433 with 15 steals and eight homers in 2014.
Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS -- Mondesi may be one of the more promising prospects in the Royals' organization, but the Dominican native largely struggled at the plate in 2014 for High-A Wilmington. He showed flashes of potential, however, as the switch-hitting infielder was able to tally five home runs over a seven-game stretch in mid-August. Though he hasn't been able to hit for average just yet, Mondesi will be just 19 years old for the majority of 2015, so there remains plenty of time to work on his pitch recognition, an area that has given him trouble in the past. Regarded as one of the better defensive infielders in the organization, he has the potential to challenge Alcides Escobar for a job as early as 2017, placing him firmly on the radar in dynasty formats.
Orlando Calixte, SS -- The Royals added Calixte to the 40-man roster in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this winter. He spent his second straight season at Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and the results were actually worse than his 2013 numbers -- including a paltry .288 OBP. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 160 pounds, Calixte has a surprising amount of power for his size, but his pitch recognition remains a work in progress and there are questions as to whether he can develop into anything more than a versatile utility player at the big league level. Turning 23 in February, Calixte may begin a third straight year at Double-A, but his promotion to Triple-A could be the result of the team's organizational depth chart rather than merit, with Raul Mondesi likely to advance from High-A in 2015. There is still some breakout potential here, but the Royals may be best served to shop him for help at an area of need with Alcides Escobar holding the big league job, Christian Colon positioned as a utility option, and Mondesi carrying the shortstop of the future designation.
Hunter Dozier, 3B -- Dozier produced a .826 OPS with four homers and seven steals over 276 at-bats for High-A Wilmington in 2014, which eventually earned him a mid-June promotion to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. In an equal amount of at-bats at the Double-A level, he was largely disappointing, batting just .209 and striking out at a rate of 22.6%. He'll need to improve his contact rate at that level if he has intentions of making another jump in 2015, but the Royals remain confident the 6-foot-4 infielder will continue to develop the power they thought he would when they drafted him eighth overall in the 2013 first-year player draft. Triple-A Omaha seems to be the likely ceiling for Dozier in the coming season, and he'll still have to compete with several other intriguing prospects in the farm system if he plans on seeing infield work in the big leagues by 2016.
