This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Saturday, July 13
If I had to write about all of the reasons, I love the game of baseball and all the experiences it has given me, it would require at least two lifetimes to write them. One of the reasons occurred last night in Philadelphia when the Oakland Athletics with their second-worst record in the AL (36-60) defeated the Phillies, 6-2, who were fresh off a three-game series sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers and boast the best record in MLB (61-33). The Phillies have outscored their opponents by 119 runs while the A's have been outscored by their foes by 92 runs. No other sport provides as many major upsets as baseball.
For fans and sports bettors, it becomes easy to forget that each of the 30 teams in MLB have rosters filled with the best baseball players on the planet. Although the records of each team can be vastly different like Friday night's A's win over the Phillies, the margins are small in a one-game situation. The lesson for sports bettors is to simply never bet a prohibitive favorite priced at –250 and higher and assume the books are giving you free money.
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Have Big Dogs Been Profitable This Season?
To this point of the season underdogs of 250 and greater have gone 5-8 for 39 percent, but by averaging a 273-underdog bet have made $565 in profits for the $100 bettor. So, avoid the financial woes of betting on big favorites in MLB and presuming they are automatically going to be a winning bet.
One big dog situation has done quite well over the past five seasons posting a losing 21-32 record for only 40-percent winners, but by averaging a 280-underdog bet has made a $3,360 profit per $100 wager over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on road underdogs priced at 250 and greater using the moneyline.
- The underdog is coming off a win.
So far in the 2024 season, these dogs have gone 2-3, averaging a 305-underdog bet has made the $100 bettor a $300 profit. If you bet on these favorites, you may have won three of the five games but have lost $380.
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The Best Bets to Make for the Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Two teams that are working their way into the wild card races square off when the San Francisco Giants (46-49) host the Minnesota Twins (53-41). The Giants' front office will have difficult decisions to make about whether they will be buyers or sellers ahead of the trade deadline at the end of July. They are three games under .500 and probably leaning toward looking at offers for a select few players on the roster and need too many players to fill the voids in their roster to become buyers.
The Twins are certainly going to be buyers since they are in second place in the AL Central looking to chase down the Cleveland Guardians (57-36). They have narrowed the Guardians' lead to only 4.5 games having won 6 of their last 10 games while the Guardians have struggled to win four of their last 10 games. Since June 1, the Twins have posted the sixth-best record in baseball at 21-16 while the Guardians have treaded water posting a 19-17 record.
The betting market has the Twins priced as –115 road favorites and with a posted total of 8.5 runs. In early betting, 85 percent of the handle and 69 percent of the tickets are being bet on the Twins. This early one-sided action will force the line to move higher with the potential to make the Twins a –125 favorite by game time.
Who Are the Starters?
The Twins will give the ball to right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 3-1 in 15 starts with a solid 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP spanning 77 innings of work. He has won his last three starts and is pitching his best baseball right now. In his last start, he threw six innings, allowing two ER in a 3-2 win over the scorching-hot Houston Astros. He has the added advantage of having never faced any of the players on the Giants' roster. It is always far more difficult for batters who are facing a pitcher for the first time even with scouting and video analysis.
The Giants will counter with right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who is 1-0 in three starts with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP spanning just 14.1 innings of work. He has above average "stuff" and features a 96-mph fastball, 86-mph slider and an excellent 87-mph changeup. He will use the slider as an out pitch to right-handed batters and the change mostly to left-handed batters but will use it periodically against right-handed batters.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Saturday
The following betting algorithm has produced an 86-104 record for just 45-percent winning bets, but by averaging a 146-underdog bet has resulted in an outstanding 10-percent ROI and a $2,720 profit for the $100 bettor. This same situation has produced a 115-75 record for 61-percent winners using the +1.5-run line averaging a –115-favorite wager for a 17-percent ROI and a $2,252 profit for the $100 bettor. The requirements are:
- Bet on home dogs.
- The road team has hit .290 or better over their last 20 games.
If our home team is coming off a win (Giants won 7-1 Friday) in the same series these home underdogs improve to 23-23 averaging a 142-underdog bet resulting in a 16.4-percent ROI and a $1,100 profit for the $100 bettor.
My best bet for the Saturday card is on the Giants priced as an underdog including pick-em.
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