This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Predictions for
Friday, July 12
There are three days remaining before MLB starts its annual All-Star break with the Home Run Derby taking place Monday, July 15, and the All-Star Game Tuesday, July 16. Unsurprisingly, the AL and NL rosters consist of players from the division-leading teams. The NL best-record and NL East-leading Philadelphia Phillies have seven players and the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers are sending six players to the Midsummer Classic.
At this point of the season, the Phillies have become the team to beat and that has displayed the best-player chemistry in MLB. Even when they lost several key starters to injuries, the players who were in the lineup all stepped up and continued to win games and have extended their division lead to 9.5 games over the Atlanta Braves.
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The Best Bets for the Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Game
After starting out with a 10-19 record, the Astros have been one of the best teams since and have climbed to within two games of the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners. The Rangers are struggling this season to a 44-49 record, trailing the Mariners by seven games in the standings. So, this three-game series is extremely important for each team to win.
In Game 1, the betting markets have the Astros priced as –150-favorites and with a posted total of 8.0 runs. Currently, 65 percent of the handle and 74 percent of the number of tickets bet are on the Astros. So, the public bettor is all over the Astros and the OVER, where 74 percent of the betting action has been on the OVER. This does set up an excellent contrarian bet on the Texas Rangers and the Under as starting points for the handicapping process.
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Who Are the Starters?
The Astros' comeback in the standings is made even more impressive by the fact that they have had major injuries to their starting rotation and as a result rank 20th with a starter ERA of 4.30 on the season. After posting a league-worst starters' ERA of 5.50 in April, they did improve to a 4.47 ERA in May and a strong 3.12 ERA in June. However, July has not been nearly as solid and consistent, posting a 4.72 ERA.
The Astros will hand the ball to Hunter Brown, who is 6-6 in 17 starts with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.386 WHIP, including 100 strikeouts and 36 walks spanning 92.1 innings of work. He has pitched much better in his nine home starts, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.44 ERA and allowing a .208 opponent batting average. However, he has allowed eight of his 13 home runs at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers' offense is not elite by any stretch, but they do rank seventh best, averaging 7.70 strikeouts per game reflecting solid plate discipline and ability to work the count.
In his short career, Brown has not had the best success against the Rangers. The players on the Rangers' current roster have hit a combined .333 (27-for-81), with Adolis Garcia hitting two home runs in 11 at-bats and Corey Seager hitting .400 when facing Brown.
The Rangers will have left-hander Andrew Heaney on the hill, and he is 3-9 in 17 starts with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP, including 92 strikeouts and 24 walks spanning 90 innings of work. Do not let the mediocre season stats fool you as he is coming off two of the best starts this season. In his last starts, he went 5.1 innings, allowing zero earned runs on just three hits, including two walks and seven strikeouts in a 4-3 team win over the Tampa Bay Rays. In his second-to-last start, he completed seven innings, allowing two earned, zero walks and struck out 10 Baltimore Orioles batters in an 11-2 win.
The MLB Betting Algorithm of the Day
I have developed more than 5,000 situational sports-betting algorithms over the past 30 years of my career as a data scientist and this one has been highly profitable, posting a 52-59 record for just 47-percent winning bets, but by averaging a 153-underdog wager has earned a 15-percent ROI and a $19,270 profit for the Dime Bettor over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on AL road underdogs priced between 125 and 175 using the moneyline.
- The dog has a starter with an ERA between 4.00 and 4.50 in the current season.
- The favorite is starting a pitcher who is averaging five or more strikeouts in the current season.
If the game occurs after game No. 81 these road dogs have produced a highly profitable 33-22 record good for 60-percent winning bets that have averaged a 153-underdog bet resulting in an outstanding 47-percent ROI and making a $27,890 profit for the Dime Bettor.
What Does Blackjack Have to Do with this Bet?
The reason I call these betting algorithms Blackjack Betting systems has nothing to do with the game strategy involved with the most popular casino game on the planet, but it does have to do with the payouts of the game as compared to those provided by the algorithm. In the game of Blackjack, you are paid $100 for a winning $100 hand/bet and 3:2 odds for getting Blackjack, which is 21 attained with the first two cards dealt to you. Let's remove the 3:2 payout for simplicity reasons.
The betting algorithm detailed above has made 111 bets. In Blackjack, if you had played 111 $100 hands and won 52 and lost 59 of them, you would have lost $700. However, in this specific betting algorithm, you would have been paid $153 for every winning hand/bet made, which turns into a $1,927 profit. So, no casino ever will pay $153 per winning $100 bet in Blackjack, but this betting algorithm has done that for five consecutive highly profitable seasons.
My best bet for Friday action is on the Texas Rangers priced as 126 underdogs when they take on the Houston Astros on Friday Night.
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