The Z Files: Calculated Risks

Last week, the first three rounds of a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) league that historically starts drafting the last week of the regular season was discussed. Derek Van Riper and I are partnering in this endeavor, a topic on the docket to be talked about next week. This week I'll share the next two rounds along with DVR and my first 15 picks. As suggested, instead of a thumbnail blurb about each pick, the underlying thought process will be detailed.

But first, here are Rounds 4 and 5:

Here's the breakdown of players by position as compared to the average draft position (ADP) of the 2016 live NFBC drafts:

The most noteworthy trend is far fewer teams had two starting pitchers among their first five picks. In 2016, over half the owners in 15-team leagues double-tapped starting pitching early. The distribution in this draft, which keep in mind is just one draft so there's no guarantee this will persist, is as follows:

At least in this draft, the pitching landscape has changed. Two teams entered Round 6 without a starter. One of these teams doubled up with starters in Rounds 6 and 7 while the other is focusing on saves and will piece together starters later to eclipse the minimum innings necessary by rule.

My best guess is this trend continues, though a few more arms may float into the first five picks. But in general, I expect fewer pitchers to be taken in the initial five rounds as compared to this past spring.

In this draft, a couple extra closers popped into the Top 75. I can see four of those drafted here (Chapman, Britton, Jansen, Familia) remaining in the first five rounds with Melancon generally sliding down a round or two.

Here's the first 15 picks of Team TodDVR as it's being called by the league:

By position:

C: Grandal
1B:
3B: Sano, Turner
2B: Forsythe
SS: Lindor
OF: Trout, Springer, Cespedes, Kiermaier
SP: Carrasco, Strasburg, Teheran
CL: Diaz, Iglesias, Thornburg

The picks through Cespedes were covered last week. What I'd like to focus on for the rest if this discussion is:

1. Why three closers?
2. Miguel Sano, really?
3. Why no first baseman?
4. The need for speed.

Closers

Well, first, there's some dispute whether we really have three closers. There's little doubt Diaz enters 2017 as the stopper in the Mariners pen. The questions are Iglesias and Thornburg. There's chatter out of the Reds camp that both Michael Lorenzen and Iglesias will be used in an unconventional manner, likely meaning for multiple innings. DVR and I agreed, we still expect Iglesias to be the main guy in the ninth. He may lose a few save opportunities, but there's a strong chance he tosses more innings, and accrues more whiffs, than most relievers – which will come in handy since we'll be often deploying only six starting pitchers. With respect to Thornburg, who else is there? His peripherals were solid and as Jeanmar Gomez demonstrated, team quality doesn't always portend save chances.

So why the trio? At the time we double-tapped the duo at the 12/13 wheel, five teams were devoid of a closer. One team had three with several others sitting on a pair. Chances are, those fading saves plan on speculating with late picks and/or waiting until everything fleshes out and will attack the category during FAAB. Five teams are a lot to compete with, so we opted to snag a couple friends for Diaz and leave the trolling to the other one-third of the league.

This is a ploy foreign to my usual style. That said, I always grab a high-strikeout middle reliever, usually the next-in-line to one of my closers, to deploy when I'm not comfortable with a streamer matchup. So now instead of going that route, we'll have a third closer to either play all the time or work in, depending on needs, etc.

The final reason for the move was hinted at already. Looking at our first 15 picks, there's a deficiency at first base and maybe steals. While others are throwing darts at would-be closers, Derek and I will snag some speed prospects and first basemen on reserve. And if a first baseman emerges in the spring, the demand for his services won't be as great as those of the newly anointed closers.

Miguel Sano

After selecting Sano, I posted the pick on Twitter, asking too early, too late or just right? The consensus was that he was well worth the risk at pick 120. My heart agrees, but my head is a bit obstinate. Part of me feels I need more risk in my high-stakes game play. I've managed two consecutive second place finishes in my Main Event leagues, so it's not like I can't compete without taking more chances. The conundrum is, will a couple risks put me over the top or drop me out of the money?

Ultimately, the answer is taking calculated risks. There's no questioning Sano's upside. He hits the ball as hard as anyone in the league with the power to challenge for the home run crown. Strikeouts and health are the main issues, along with his best position being designated hitter. If Derek pitched Sano at the 6/7 turn I wouldn't have signed off. And actually, I was the one that initially suggested him at 8/9, admittedly knowing DVR was a fan. The combo of wanting to get out of my comfort zone (Strasburg, three closers) along with a better chance to formulate an escape plan in such an early draft tipped the scales in Sano's favor.

First Base

I'm a believer in never reaching for a position since at some point in the draft, there will be a player at that spot at or near the top of your cheat sheet. It's odd the flow landed on first base as that spot, but neither of us are worried. It's a fallacy that "you need power from your first baseman." The better approach is planning on a certain level of production from each draft spot, lessening in expectation as you navigate the snake. Sure, out first-sacker won't be very good compared to the rest of the league, but I promise he'll be more than adequate for the point in the draft we grab him. And, as suggested, we'll grab another in reserve, which also serves as a Sano hedge. Not to mention, if Sano crushes, we can also move him to the outfield or utility, freeing up corner for the guy drafted in reserve.

Speed

Confession time: if this were a Main Event draft, Sano or the third closer would be replaced by some speed. Maybe this would be a mistake, but that's part of the reason for consciously heading into uncharted territory. DVR and I didn't go into the draft with the intent of not focusing on speed, and it's not like we're completely vapid. We just don't have that one guy whose primary contribution is steals.

There's a very good chance we have 100 bags in the books already. There's also a chance we have 60. There's still middle infield, outfield and utility to piece together more pilfers. Another couple hitters like Kiermaier should do the trick to get us mid-pack. Then we speculate on a speed specialist while others are concentrating on saves. Actually, that feeds into the overall thinking. It's fine to be a little short in steals in a stand-alone league (not connected to an overall contest). This is especially true if saves are a strong suit.

As always, I'm happy to answer any question in the comments. Just please don't ask for the draft spot of players not already shared. This is a private league, though we do it knowing the first five rounds will be made public.

We'll take a break from reviewing the draft next week. Instead, the topic will be some of the nuances entailed with sharing a team. We should be done with the draft in two weeks at which time I'll reveal our final 15 picks along with the associated thinking.