The Z Files: The Calm Before the Storm

What follows is a potpourri of thoughts -- some player oriented, some strategy oriented and some just bouncing around my gray matter. None are worthy of a stand-alone column but together, they're not a bad Todd-pourri.

Did MLB forget to send out the juiced balls after the break?

After the break, homers are down and steals are up. Sure, it's only been a week and a half but the numbers are startling. To give some context, here's the home run and stolen base totals prorated to a full season for the games through the All-Star break, the games since the break and the same number of games heading into the break along with 2015 year-end totals.

It's too small a sample to take action just yet but if this pace continues, managing these categories down the stretch could be different than if power were still way up. Keep in mind the into and out of the break samples are about a week and a half so the numbers could be matchup driven. Still, it's counter-intuitive that power is down as the temperature is up, not to mention steals occurring at a pace that blows away last season's mark.

Do I spend my FAAB money on players that cross leagues over the weekend or wait until next week?

Hopefully by now you've realized there may be two waves of free agents available in single league formats as the trading deadline is Monday, August 1 at 4:00 PM ET and not the usual July 31. With most leagues running their FAAB sometime before the Monday deadline, there's likely to be some players joining Aroldis Chapman in the National League and Melvin Upton Jr. in the American League for the impending FAAB session, then another group of players dealt after your league's FAAB process.

As an aside, if your league has not clearly spelled out eligibility guidelines for crossover players, it's worth asking your commissioner for clarification. For example, Tout Wars runs FAAB Sunday night at midnight ET. In order to be eligible for bidding, the trade must be announced on either the ESPN.com or mlb.com transaction page under Saturday's moves. A Sunday Twitter announcement doesn't cut it. If one of those two major sites do not list the move dated Saturday, the player is ineligible for the ensuing FAAB bidding and has to sit an extra week.

That last sentence segues us back to the original question, spend now or hold out for more? Obviously it's contextual, but something to keep in mind is players purchased this weekend will provide nine weeks of stats while those waiting a week will only be active for eight weeks. This may not seem like much but when you're in a tight race, every little bit counts.

Personally, I'm more likely to make my move this weekend than wait for a bigger fish that may never manifest. Unless, of course, the players that are available this weekend aren't sufficient to get the job done so there's no downside to waiting. The idea being if you aren't going to win with Upton Jr., then cross your fingers that Jonathan Lucroy or Ryan Braun cross leagues.

The final note with respect to single league bidding is to keep in mind there will still be waiver deals and September call-ups so if you lose out in the next couple of weeks, hang tight, help may still be on the way.

I want Ryan Dull

Have you seen what this guy is doing? While the focus is on bullpens like the Astros, Rangers, Braves, Padres, Red Sox, Yankees etc. in an effort to find late-season saves, give me Dull to stash in the hopes the Athletics make a couple moves with Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to clear the ninth for the 26-year old righty. There's a decent chance Oakland sees what they have in Dull even without dealing Doolittle or Madson.

Dull isn't overly dominant, sitting around 90 mph most of the time, but he still fans just over a hitter an inning. He's a fly ball pitcher but that plays in O. Co Coliseum. There's some home run risk on the road though he's allowed three homers both on the road and at home thus far.

Dull's also a nice speculative pickup in keeper leagues since we all know the Athletics generally don't bring in a pricey closer.

Dee Gordon may not play every day but I don't care

Gordon is back, having served his 80-game suspension. The Marlins have already stated he won't play regularly early on. Also keep in mind he's not playoff-eligible so there's a chance the Fish scale down his playing time in September if they're still in the chase for a wild-card spot. But I don't care.

Assuming I need steals, Gordon can get as many in one game as most players amass in a week or even a month. As is the case with all category-balancing scenarios, the net gain over all the categories is what matters. Some are suggesting moving Gordon since he's not going play every day. Hogwash. He'll still be among the league leaders in swipes going forward.

On the other hand, players like Hunter Pence when he returns and the aforementioned Upton Jr. are likely to see less than regular at-bats. Their utility on a mixed league roster is thus in jeopardy.

I wonder if this is the season they'll believe me when I say you can still gain or lose ground in the ratio categories

This drives me batty. This time every year I hear and read advice based on at-bats or innings totals being too large to allow movement in batting average (or OBP), ERA and WHIP. Double hogwash. In fact, on the average, there's more movement in these categories through the last week of the season than in raw counting stat categories.

There are a couple reasons for this. The first is if you normalize all the categories, the ratio ones are far more tightly bunched. Of course each league has a unique distribution which ultimately decides your ability to make a move but on average, batting average, ERA and WHIP are tighter than the other categories.

The second reason is teams can get better and worse in the ratios. You can gain or lose ERA or WHIP points without having one of your hurlers throw a pitch. Unless you're J.T. Realmuto earlier this season, once you have a home run it stays on your record.

Good news! I got everything off my chest, my head is clear. Thanks for the indulgence and here's to everyone getting an early present at the trade deadline.