This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Props for
Wednesday, June 26
We have our usual split slate Wednesday, and I'm honing in on a trio of props involving a pair of talented hitters and a formidable arm as I try to rebound from last week's nightmarish 0-5 Tuesday blanking.
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season-Props Betting Record: 16-18 (-2.30 RW Bucks)
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bets
The Blue Jays' Vladimir Guerrero kept up his red-hot hitting Tuesday night against the Red Sox, going 2-for-5 with four RBI. The slugger has pushed his slash line to an impressive .288/.368/.435, and he now has four multi-hit efforts in the last nine games.
Guerrero takes a stab at extending his streak Wednesday against the Red Sox's Kutter Crawford, who Guerrero owns a .444 average against in nine career encounters. Crawford's 3-7 record is somewhat deceptive – it's accompanied by a 3.59 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 – but he's given up a .485 slugging percentage and .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home.
Guerrero owns a .297 average, .812 OPS and .358 wOBA against right-handed pitching while only striking out in that split at an acceptable 17.6-percent clip. Meanwhile, Crawford has had trouble limiting hard contact as of late – he's yielded 11 homers in his last seven starts – and relies heavily on his four-seam and cutter, pitches Guerrero owns .314 and .294 career averages against, respectively.
Considering all the factors discussed, I'm in the camp of an Over on Guerrero getting at least one single off Crawford or Red Sox relievers. However, as a secondary longshot bet, banking on the slugger clearing the fences at Fenway against a pitcher who's had trouble with the long ball isn't a bad way to go.
MLB Picks for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
- Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 Singles (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Vladimir Guerrero To Hit a HR (+320 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Best Bets
The Dodgers' Gavin Stone is in the midst of a breakout season, already amassing eight wins alongside a 3.04 ERA and tiny 0.7 HR/9 across his first 14 starts. The right-hander has upped his swing-and-miss game lately as well, recording an improved 8.7 K/9 in the 30 innings covering his last five starts.
Stone has compiled at least six strikeouts in four of those outings, a stretch during which he's 4-0 with a 2.10 ERA. What's more, three of those starts came on the road, where Stone boasts a 5-1 record and 2.91 ERA overall in 34 innings this season.
The opposing White Sox could facilitate an extension of Stone's recent success, considering Chicago's dismal record and .217 average, .296 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home in June. The ChiSox have also struck out at a 22.1-percent clip in that split, not an awful number by any means but one that still makes it very plausible for Stone to surpass a very achievable strikeout prop number of 4.5.
It's also worth noting Stone has recorded at least five strikeouts in eight of his 14 starts, and he's fallen just short with four Ks in two other instances.
MLB Picks for Dodgers vs White Sox
- Gavin Stone Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets
The Twins have a targetable starting pitcher matchup Wednesday evening, as the inconsistent Ryne Nelson takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Nelson checks in with a 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, figures that rise to 5.74 and 1.63, respectively, when split out for his body of work at home.
Nelson has been much better lately, recording three quality starts in his last four trips to the mound. However, he's been highly ineffective in same-handed matchups all season, and he's conceded a .370 average and .407 wOBA to righty bats at Chase Field. Those numbers make him a good target for Royce Lewis, who's putting together yet another stellar season and boasts a .329/.392/.800 slash line across 79 plate appearances.
Lewis has been very good against right-handed pitching thus far in his career, producing a .301 average, .982 OPS and .414 wOBA in that split. He also owns an .894 OPS and .375 wOBA against righties on the road in a small sample this season, and while he's carrying a .208 average in that same split, it's largely the result of an unsustainably low .154 BABIP.
Nelson relies heaviest on his four-seamer and cutter, pitches which Lewis has hammered for wOBAs of .494 and .426, respectively, thus far in his career. Lewis has also laced 13 of his 23 hits for extra bases thus far this season, so I'll roll with his Total Bases prop in this instance.
MLB Picks for Twins vs. Diamondbacks
- Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Vladimir Guerrero Over 0.5 Singles (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Vladimir Guerrero To Hit a HR (+320 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Gavin Stone Over 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Royce Lewis Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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