Weekly Pitcher Rankings: Kicking Off the 2017 Season

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Updated on March 31, 2017 1:03PM EST

Welcome to the inaugural 2017 edition of the Weekly Pitching Rankings. For the next 25 weeks, we'll rank the probable starting pitchers in terms of how much they'll help your rotisserie team. Since most leagues wrap opening day Sunday into the first scoring period, we're doing the same here.

One of the hardest aspects of managing a pitching staff is deciding between a two-start, lesser option and a better arm with just one game. Later in the season, the choice could be driven by needs: wins and whiffs versus ratios. Early on, you're likely looking for the candidate with the better across-the-board potential. These rankings are designed to facilitate that process.

We start with a baseline based on the hurlers rest-of-season projection. This is adjusted for matchup, considering the opponent, home versus away and the venue. Much like what is done for daily DFS projections, a per game projection is generated for each start, based on the specific opponent. Pitchers with two starts have the components summed, yielding their expected projection for the week.

Most leagues use rotisserie scoring, so the pitchers are ranked rotisserie style, using the standard 5x5 categories, less saves. Wins are projected in terms of decimals. If a pitcher is projected with a 47 percent chance of winning, his win projection is .47. If he has a second start with a 39 percent chance, his win projection for the week is .86. This is done for strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.

The ratios are tricky since their

The ratios are tricky since their impact is in accordance with the number of projected innings for the week. To account for this, ERA and WHIP are converted to counting stats in the same manner that's utilized in conventional valuation. The pitcher's projected ratio is subtracted from a baseline ratio. This is then multiplied by the number of projected innings for the week. The baseline is the league average ratio. As an example, using a 3.80 ERA as the baseline, a starter projected for a 3.00 ERA over six innings is awarded 4.8 points. The difference in ERA is .80, which is multiplied by six. By converting the ratio to a counting stat, the effect of the innings can be quantified.

We now have a projection for the four categories. All that's left is assigning points, rotisserie style. This week there are 145 scheduled starting pitchers. The one projected with the highest total in each category gets 145 points, working down to one point for the lowest. The points are summed and the pitchers ranked.

Some play in points leagues or formats with non-standard categories. Obviously, we can't cater to every possibility. However, I'm happy to answer league-specific questions in the comments.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

RANK	PITCHER	TEAM	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Corey Kluber	CLE	at TEX, at ARI	Couple of tough road venues
2	Chris Archer	TB	NYY, TOR	Two home starts nice way to kick off rebound campaign
3	Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	at TB, at BAL	Ace at a torn UCL discount
4	Yu Darvish	TEX	CLE, OAK	We sure love our whiffs
5	Jose Quintana	CWS	DET, MIN	Auditioning for a deal?
6	Danny Duffy	KC	at MIN, at HOU	Popular breakout candidate
7	Justin Verlander	DET	at CWS, BOS	Kate was right
8	Rick Porcello	BOS	PIT, at DET	You shouldn't have won the Cy Young
9	Jake Odorizzi	TB	NYY, TOR	Tough foes, but at home
10	Matt Shoemaker	LAA	at OAK, SEA	Will he maintain the strikeout gains?
11	Kevin Gausman	BAL	TOR, NYY	No easy starts in the AL East
12	Marco Estrada	TOR	at BAL, at TB	Can he continue to sport low BABIP?
13	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	SEA, KC	Looking to put 2016 behind
14	Lance McCullers	HOU	SEA, KC	Sick stuff, all about health
15	Sean Manaea	OAK	LAA, at TEX	Stud in the making
16	Ervin Santana	MIN	KC, at CWS	Sneaky strong play in Week 1
17	Chris Sale	BOS	PIT	Too early in the season to wear throwback unis
18	Felix Hernandez	SEA	at HOU, at LAA	Don't write The King off just yet
19	Ricky Nolasco	LAA	at OAK, SEA
20	Cole Hamels	TEX	CLE
21	Danny Salazar	CLE	at TEX
22	Garrett Richards	LAA	at OAK
23	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	at TEX	Ranking dropped due to limited inning expectation
24	Drew Pomeranz	BOS	at DET
25	Marcus Stroman	TOR	at TB
26	Jharel Cotton	OAK	LAA
27	Joe Musgrove	HOU	SEA
28	Michael Pineda	NYY	at TB
29	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	at HOU, at LAA
30	Ian Kennedy	KC	at MIN
31	Steven Wright	BOS	at DET
32	Jason Hammel	KC	at MIN
33	Andrew Triggs	OAK	LAA
34	Matt Andriese	TB	TOR
35	Martin Perez	TEX	CLE, OAK
36	Michael Fulmer	DET	BOS
37	Blake Snell	TB	TOR
38	Josh Tomlin	CLE	at ARI
39	Francisco Liriano	TOR	at TB
40	Jordan Zimmermann	DET	at CWS
41	Miguel Gonzalez	CWS	MIN
42	Alex Cobb	TB	NYY
43	CC Sabathia	NYY	at TB, at BAL
44	James Paxton	SEA	at HOU
45	Kendall Graveman	OAK	LAA, at TEX
46	Drew Smyly	SEA	at HOU
47	Dylan Covey	CWS	MIN
48	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	PIT
49	Trevor Bauer	CLE	at ARI
50	Dylan Bundy	BAL	TOR
51	J.A. Happ	TOR	at BAL
52	Daniel Norris	DET	at CWS
53	Charlie Morton	HOU	SEA
54	Luis Severino	NYY	at BAL
55	Nathan Karns	KC	at HOU
56	Tyler Skaggs	LAA	at OAK	Improved defense a big help
57	Matt Boyd	DET	BOS
58	Jason Vargas	KC	at HOU
59	Phil Hughes	MIN	at CWS
60	Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	NYY
61	James Shields	CWS	DET
62	Derek Holland	CWS	DET
63	Jesse Chavez	LAA	SEA
64	A.J. Griffin	TEX	OAK
65	Yovani Gallardo	SEA	at LAA
66	Tyler Duffey	MIN	at CWS
67	Mike Fiers	HOU	KC
68	Wade Miley	BAL	NYY
69	Hector Santiago	MIN	KC
70	Kyle Gibson	MIN	KC
71	Raul Alcantara	OAK	at TEX

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Rank	Pitcher	TEAM	Opponent(s)	Comments
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SD, at COL	Nice to balance a Coors start with one at home
2	Noah Syndergaard	NYM	ATL, MIA	Set up for a great opening week
3	Madison Bumgarner	SF	at ARI, at SD	Mr. Reliable
4	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	MIA, at PHI	Is this the year he stays healthy?
5	Jon Lester	CHC	at MIL, at STL	Look for Brewers to run wild
6	Johnny Cueto	SF	at ARI, at SD	Steady as they come
7	Carlos Martinez	STL	CHC, CIN	A pair at home in what should be a big year
8	Julio Teheran	ATL	at NYM, at PIT	Take the over on last year's seven wins
9	Zack Greinke	ARI	SF, CLE	Needs to get off to a strong start
10	Max Scherzer	WAS	MIA	May not get two starts until Week 3
11	Zach Davies	MIL	COL, CHC	Pounds the zone
12	Rich Hill	LAD	SD	A blisterless spring!
13	Gerrit Cole	PIT	at BOS, ATL	Spring velocity promising, will be tested right away
14	Jacob deGrom	NYM	ATL	Strong spring has Mets fans optimistic
15	Jake Arrieta	CHC	at STL	Needs to get back to pinpoint control
16	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at MIL	Wants to work deeper into games. We'll see.
17	Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	at CIN, WAS
18	Kenta Maeda	LAD	SD, at COL
19	Joe Ross	WAS	at PHI
20	Tyler Anderson	COL	at MIL, LAD
21	Tanner Roark	WAS	MIA
22	Junior Guerra	MIL	COL, CHC
23	Tyler Chatwood	COL	at MIL
24	John Lackey	CHC	at STL
25	Matt Harvey	NYM	ATL
26	Jon Gray	COL	at MIL, LAD
27	Robert Gsellman	NYM	MIA
28	Michael Wacha	STL	CIN	Can he stay healthy?
29	Robbie Ray	ARI	SF, CLE
30	Vince Velasquez	PHI	WAS
31	Lance Lynn	STL	CHC
32	Brandon Finnegan	CIN	PHI
33	Edinson Volquez	MIA	at WAS, at NYM
34	Gio Gonzalez	WAS	at PHI
35	Scott Feldman	CIN	PHI, at STL
36	Ivan Nova	PIT	ATL
37	Clay Buchholz	PHI	at CIN
38	Aaron Nola	PHI	WAS
39	Jhoulys Chacin	SD	at LAD, SF
40	Chad Kuhl	PIT	at BOS
41	Jered Weaver	SD	at LAD, SF	Lowest rated two-start option
42	Wei-Yin Chen	MIA	at NYM
43	Tyler Glasnow	PIT	ATL
44	Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	at CIN
45	Taijuan Walker	ARI	SF
46	Jeff Samardzija	SF	at ARI
47	Zack Wheeler	NYM	MIA
48	Mike Leake	STL	CIN
49	Jaime Garcia	ATL	at NYM
50	Shelby Miller	ARI	CLE
51	Matt Moore	SF	at ARI
52	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	at COL	Good news is you made the rotation, bad news is Coors
53	Bartolo Colon	ATL	at NYM	Let's hope he goes to the right dugout
54	Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	at PIT
55	Brett Anderson	CHC	at MIL
56	Jameson Taillon	PIT	at BOS
57	Brandon McCarthy	LAD	SD
58	Adam Wainwright	STL	CHC
59	Adam Conley	MIA	at NYM
60	Trevor Cahill	SD	at LAD
61	Jimmy Nelson	MIL	CHC
62	R.A. Dickey	ATL	at PIT
63	Chase Anderson	MIL	COL
64	Rookie Davis	CIN	PHI
65	Patrick Corbin	ARI	SF
66	Wily Peralta	MIL	COL
67	Matt Cain	SF	at SD
68	Dan Straily	MIA	at WAS
69	Clayton Richard	SD	at LAD
70	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	at STL
71	Amir Garrett	CIN	at STL
72	Tom Koehler	MIA	at WAS
73	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at MIL	Impressive spring, can he do it when it counts?
74	Luis Perdomo	SD	SF
75	Kyle Freeland	COL	at MIL

MLB TOP 100

RANK	PITCHER	TEAM	OPPONENT	COMMENT
1	Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SD, at COL	Nice to balance a Coors start with one at home
2	Noah Syndergaard	NYM	ATL, MIA	Set up for a great opening week
3	Madison Bumgarner	SF	at ARI, at SD	Mr. Reliable
4	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	MIA, at PHI	Is this the year he stays healthy?
5	Jon Lester	CHC	at MIL, at STL	Look for Brewers to run wild
6	Corey Kluber	CLE	at TEX, at ARI	Couple of tough road venues
7	Johnny Cueto	SF	at ARI, at SD	Steady as they come
8	Chris Archer	TB	NYY, TOR	Two home starts nice way to kick off rebound campaign
9	Masahiro Tanaka	NYY	at TB, at BAL	Ace at a torn UCL discount
10	Yu Darvish	TEX	CLE, OAK	We sure love our whiffs
11	Carlos Martinez	STL	CHC, CIN	A pair at home in what should be a big year
12	Jose Quintana	CWS	DET, MIN	Auditioning for a deal?
13	Danny Duffy	KC	at MIN, at HOU	Popular breakout candidate
14	Justin Verlander	DET	at CWS, BOS	Kate was right
15	Rick Porcello	BOS	PIT, at DET	You shouldn't have won the Cy Young
16	Jake Odorizzi	TB	NYY, TOR	Tough foes, but at home
17	Julio Teheran	ATL	at NYM, at PIT	Take the over on last year's seven wins
18	Matt Shoemaker	LAA	at OAK, SEA	Will he maintain the strikeout gains?
19	Kevin Gausman	BAL	TOR, NYY	No easy starts in the AL East
20	Marco Estrada	TOR	at BAL, at TB	Can he continue to sport low BABIP?
21	Zack Greinke	ARI	SF, CLE	Needs to get off to a strong start
22	Max Scherzer	WAS	MIA	May not get two starts until Week 3
23	Zach Davies	MIL	COL, CHC	Pounds the zone
24	Dallas Keuchel	HOU	SEA, KC	Looking to put 2016 behind
25	Lance McCullers	HOU	SEA, KC	Sick stuff, all about health
26	Rich Hill	LAD	SD	A blisterless spring!
27	Gerrit Cole	PIT	at BOS, ATL	Spring velocity promising, will be tested right away
28	Jacob deGrom	NYM	ATL	Strong spring has Mets fans optimistic
29	Sean Manaea	OAK	LAA, at TEX	Stud in the making
30	Ervin Santana	MIN	KC, at CWS	Sneaky strong play in Week 1
31	Jake Arrieta	CHC	at STL	Needs to get back to pinpoint control
32	Chris Sale	BOS	PIT	Too early in the season to wear throwback unis
33	Felix Hernandez	SEA	at HOU, at LAA	Don't write The King off just yet
34	Kyle Hendricks	CHC	at MIL	Wants to work deeper into games. We'll see.
35	Jeremy Hellickson	PHI	at CIN, WAS
36	Ricky Nolasco	LAA	at OAK, SEA
37	Kenta Maeda	LAD	SD, at COL
38	Joe Ross	WAS	at PHI
39	Tyler Anderson	COL	at MIL, LAD
40	Cole Hamels	TEX	CLE
41	Danny Salazar	CLE	at TEX
42	Garrett Richards	LAA	at OAK
43	Tanner Roark	WAS	MIA
44	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	at TEX	Ranking dropped due to limited inning expectation
45	Drew Pomeranz	BOS	at DET
46	Junior Guerra	MIL	COL, CHC
47	Marcus Stroman	TOR	at TB
48	Jharel Cotton	OAK	LAA
49	Joe Musgrove	HOU	SEA
50	Michael Pineda	NYY	at TB
51	Tyler Chatwood	COL	at MIL
52	John Lackey	CHC	at STL
53	Hisashi Iwakuma	SEA	at HOU, at LAA
54	Matt Harvey	NYM	ATL
55	Jon Gray	COL	at MIL, LAD
56	Robert Gsellman	NYM	MIA
57	Ian Kennedy	KC	at MIN
58	Michael Wacha	STL	CIN	Can he stay healthy?
59	Robbie Ray	ARI	SF, CLE
60	Steven Wright	BOS	at DET
61	Jason Hammel	KC	at MIN
62	Vince Velasquez	PHI	WAS
63	Andrew Triggs	OAK	LAA
64	Lance Lynn	STL	CHC
65	Brandon Finnegan	CIN	PHI
66	Edinson Volquez	MIA	at WAS, at NYM
67	Matt Andriese	TB	TOR
68	Martin Perez	TEX	CLE, OAK
69	Michael Fulmer	DET	BOS
70	Blake Snell	TB	TOR
71	Josh Tomlin	CLE	at ARI
72	Francisco Liriano	TOR	at TB
73	Jordan Zimmermann	DET	at CWS
74	Gio Gonzalez	WAS	at PHI
75	Miguel Gonzalez	CWS	MIN
76	Alex Cobb	TB	NYY
77	CC Sabathia	NYY	at TB, at BAL
78	Scott Feldman	CIN	PHI, at STL
79	James Paxton	SEA	at HOU
80	Kendall Graveman	OAK	LAA, at TEX
81	Ivan Nova	PIT	ATL
82	Clay Buchholz	PHI	at CIN
83	Aaron Nola	PHI	WAS
84	Jhoulys Chacin	SD	at LAD, SF
85	Chad Kuhl	PIT	at BOS
85	Drew Smyly	SEA	at HOU
86	Dylan Covey	CWS	MIN
87	Jered Weaver	SD	at LAD, SF	Lowest rated two-start option
88	Wei-Yin Chen	MIA	at NYM
89	Tyler Glasnow	PIT	ATL
90	Jerad Eickhoff	PHI	at CIN
91	Eduardo Rodriguez	BOS	PIT
92	Trevor Bauer	CLE	at ARI
93	Taijuan Walker	ARI	SF
94	Dylan Bundy	BAL	TOR
96	Jeff Samardzija	SF	at ARI
97	J.A. Happ	TOR	at BAL
98	Zack Wheeler	NYM	MIA
99	Mike Leake	STL	CIN
100	Daniel Norris	DET	at CWS
101	Charlie Morton	HOU	SEA
102	Jaime Garcia	ATL	at NYM
103	Shelby Miller	ARI	CLE
104	Luis Severino	NYY	at BAL
105	Matt Moore	SF	at ARI
106	Nathan Karns	KC	at HOU
107	Hyun-Jin Ryu	LAD	at COL	Good news is you made the rotation, bad news is Coors
108	Tyler Skaggs	LAA	at OAK	Improved defense a big help
109	Matt Boyd	DET	BOS
110	Jason Vargas	KC	at HOU
111	Phil Hughes	MIN	at CWS
112	Ubaldo Jimenez	BAL	NYY
113	James Shields	CWS	DET
114	Bartolo Colon	ATL	at NYM	Let's hope he goes to the right dugout
115	Derek Holland	CWS	DET
116	Mike Foltynewicz	ATL	at PIT
117	Brett Anderson	CHC	at MIL
118	Jameson Taillon	PIT	at BOS
119	Jesse Chavez	LAA	SEA
120	A.J. Griffin	TEX	OAK
121	Brandon McCarthy	LAD	SD
122	Yovani Gallardo	SEA	at LAA
123	Adam Wainwright	STL	CHC
124	Tyler Duffey	MIN	at CWS
125	Adam Conley	MIA	at NYM
126	Trevor Cahill	SD	at LAD
127	Jimmy Nelson	MIL	CHC
128	Mike Fiers	HOU	KC
129	R.A. Dickey	ATL	at PIT
130	Chase Anderson	MIL	COL
131	Rookie Davis	CIN	PHI
132	Wade Miley	BAL	NYY
133	Hector Santiago	MIN	KC
134	Patrick Corbin	ARI	SF
135	Kyle Gibson	MIN	KC
136	Wily Peralta	MIL	COL
137	Matt Cain	SF	at SD
138	Dan Straily	MIA	at WAS
139	Clayton Richard	SD	at LAD
140	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	at STL
141	Raul Alcantara	OAK	at TEX
142	Amir Garrett	CIN	at STL
143	Tom Koehler	MIA	at WAS
144	Antonio Senzatela	COL	at MIL	Impressive spring, can he do it when it counts?
145	Luis Perdomo	SD	SF
146	Kyle Freeland	COL	at MIL