Mitch Keller

Keller signed a five-year, $77 million extension at the start of spring training and was expected to lead the Pirates' rotation throughout the length of the contract. He took a backseat to Paul Skenes quickly, but Keller also lost some ground on the skills that allowed him to break out in 2023. In particular, his strikeout rate dropped four percentage points, thanks primarily to a less effective fastball that lost a tick of velocity. While that was a disappointing aspect of his campaign, Keller has established a safe baseline of performance as he's kept his walk rate in the 6.5 percent range in consecutive seasons, a considerable improvement from the early portions of his career. Overall, expect an ERA around 4.20 and a WHIP in the high 1.20s with around a strikeout per inning. That's the profile of a back-end starter in mixed formats, though Keller's durability arguably gives him a slight bump in value. Read Past Outlooks