Aaron Civale

Aaron Civale

29-Year-Old PitcherSP
Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Civale was a coveted trade acquisition for Tampa Bay at the 2023 deadline, and he was dealt to Milwaukee for little fanfare in 2024. He had a 5.07 ERA in 17 starts with the Rays but had more success for the Brewers with a 3.53 ERA in 13 outings. The right-hander dipped into his bag and broke out the slider following the trade, which was a pitch he didn't utilize while with Tampa Bay. A 4.78 FIP while with Milwaukee indicates he may have been fortunate to get those results and been the beneficiary of the club's strong defense. Civale threw a career-high 161 innings during 2024 and has limited fantasy upside with a career K/9 of 8.2, but he could round out a rotation in deeper leagues if he's able to continue the success he had with the Brewers during the second half of 2024. He was reportedly a candidate to be non-tendered early in the offseason, but he's likely to begin 2025 in the rotation after Milwaukee tendered him a contract. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#372
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $8 million contract with the Brewers in January of 2025.
Throws three frames Sunday
PMilwaukee Brewers
March 10, 2025
Civale gave up two earned runs over 3.0 innings in Sunday's spring game. He allowed two hits, struck out one batter and walked none.
ANALYSIS
Civale made his first appearance since his Feb. 27 spring debut and tossed 48 pitches -- seven more than he put up his previous time out. Civale and the Brewers agreed to an $8 million salary for 2025, which puts him on track to break camp with a spot in the big-league rotation.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
Even Split
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-2%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-1%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .245 587 152 42 132 30 1 21
Since 2023vs Right .245 606 113 43 135 22 0 20
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .254 333 86 26 77 16 0 15
2024vs Right .250 356 63 26 81 15 0 14
2023vs Left .234 254 66 16 55 14 1 6
2023vs Right .237 250 50 17 54 7 0 6
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-9%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-42%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-46%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.80 1.16 156.1 8 8 0 9.1 2.4 1.2
Since 2023Away 4.18 1.34 127.0 7 6 0 7.6 3.1 1.4
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.35 1.17 94.0 5 6 0 8.8 2.3 1.5
2024Away 5.78 1.49 67.0 3 3 0 7.7 3.8 1.7
2023Home 4.48 1.16 62.1 3 2 0 9.5 2.5 0.7
2023Away 2.40 1.17 60.0 4 3 0 7.5 2.4 1.1
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Prospect Rankings History
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Defensive Stats
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Aaron Civale See More
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3 days ago
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18 days ago
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30 days ago
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Underdog Fantasy: Rankings and Strategy for The Bullpen Contest
92 days ago
Todd Zola takes a look at some strategic wrinkles in Underdog's best ball The Bullpen contest and explains why top infielders like the Phillies' Trea Turner might drop relative to their ADP.
Super Early 2025 Top 300 Rankings
177 days ago
James Anderson ranks the top 300 players for 2025 fantasy baseball leagues, in which Brewers' phenom Jackson Chourio is pushing towards the first round!
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Civale was traded from Cleveland to Tampa Bay for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo straight up at the deadline. His strikeout rate jumped from 19 percent to 29.3 percent and his walk rate dropped from 7.2 percent to 5.6 percent after the trade. Don't downgrade him because of his 5.36 ERA in 10 starts with the Rays. He had a 3.26 xFIP over that unlucky stretch and his 23.7 K-BB% in 45.1 innings after the trade was an elite mark. In fact it was similar to his new teammate Zach Eflin's 23.0 K-BB% on the season, and Civale happens to have almost an identical repertoire to Eflin. Perhaps that's why the Rays targeted him. Civale missed almost two months early in the season with an oblique strain and still tallied 133.1 innings, including his rehab assignment. He shouldn't have any notable workload restrictions in 2024.
Three separate injuries did a number on Civale's 2022 campaign, as a glute issue, wrist sprain and forearm tightness cost him nearly a collective three months. The results weren't pretty when he was able to pitch -- his 4.92 ERA was a career-worst mark, though a 3.86 FIP suggests he was unlucky. The upside: he had a 9.1 K/9, the highest mark of his career. Civale threw a cut fastball 34.8 percent of the time in 2022, and he supplemented it with a nasty curveball that opponents hit .124 on with a .238 slugging percentage. He also used a sinker while cutting down on four-seamers and splitters, but he may want to revisit his pitch mix given the overall results. Cody Morris could challenge Civale or Zach Plesac for a rotation spot in 2023, but the Guardians aren't brimming with major-league ready arms, so Civale should have a good chance to work as a starter if he can get back into his 2021 form.
Civale came into 2021 with a lot of hype, but ended it with more questions than answers. The young hurler re-worked his repertoire in the winter with a desire to go with more four-seamers than two-seam fastballs while adding a split-change to give him six pitches by which to attack hitters. Early on, things went well as Civale was 10-2 in his first 15 starts with a 3.32 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while holding opponents to a .226 average. A finger sprain shut him down in mid-June and kept him out until September where he closed the season 2-3 with a 5.74 ERA (6.85 FIP), 1.31 WHIP and .257 opponents' average. The fastball was particularly painful for Civale as the league slugged over .600 off both the two- and four-seam fastballs, and even the splitter had a .484 SLG against, so the transition work is by no means done. His 2022 success hinges upon that transition getting over the speed bumps.
A popular sleeper pick heading into 2020, Civale looked early on like he was headed for that breakout, posting a 2.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 32:3 K:BB over his first five starts spanning 34 innings. However, things took a turn for the worse and an eight-run blowup on the second-to-last day of the season capped a disappointing stretch run, bringing Civale's final ERA to 4.74. The estimators are kinder to his performance, putting his deserved ERA closer to 4.00 over his total of 12 starts. Civale does not light up the radar gun and there may not be much room for growth when it comes to strikeouts (22.1 K% last season), but he has a diverse pitch mix -- sinker, cutter, curveball, slider, changeup, four-seamer -- and good command. He pitches in a favorable division and for a team that has had success grooming its young starters. It's not a flashy skill set, but Civale is a nice staff filler with ratio upside.
Injuries to Cleveland's rotation opened the door for Civale to make his major-league debut in 2019 and he enjoyed quite a bit of success. His 92.6 mph sinking fastball doesn't overpower hitters and he does not have a true wipeout pitch, but he can change speed and command his pitches well enough to be effective. Although 2019 provided a limited sample size for the right-hander, he pitched five innings or more in nine of his 10 starts. The 24-year-old's performance will likely afford him an opportunity to compete for a starting role in 2020. Civale impressed in his first glimpse of major-league action and could be a fantasy sleeper in 2020; the low strikeout rate will understandably drive many away, but if you squint you can see a bit of Kyle Hendricks upside here. It helps that he pitches in the weak AL Central and has a top-five defense behind him.
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Earns $8 million from Milwaukee
PMilwaukee Brewers
January 9, 2025
The Brewers and Civale avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $8 million contract Thursday, Robert Murray of FanSided.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Blanks Pirates for eighth win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 26, 2024
Civale (8-9) earned the win Thursday over the Pirates, allowing three hits and a walk over six scoreless innings. He struck out five.
ANALYSIS
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Goes just 4.1 innings in loss
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 21, 2024
Civale (7-9) took the loss against Arizona on Saturday, allowing three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out two batters over 4.1 innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out six in win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 16, 2024
Civale (7-8) earned the win against the Phillies on Monday, allowing one run on seven hits and one walk with six strikeouts over five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Does enough for sixth win
PMilwaukee Brewers
September 11, 2024
Civale (6-8) got the win over the Giants on Tuesday, allowing two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out two over 5.1 innings.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Chance to be non-tendered
PMilwaukee Brewers
November 1, 2024
According to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, the Brewers could non-tender Civale during the offseason.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander was acquired from Tampa Bay at the summer trade deadline and pitched well in 14 regular-season starts for Milwaukee with a 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 65:25 K:BB across 74 innings. Civale is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and will receive a sizable raise from last season's $4.9 million salary. Even if the Brewers tender him a contract for 2025, the organization could still offload him via trade this winter.
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