Adam Duvall

34-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Boston Red Sox

2022 Stats

AVG

.213

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

In 2021, Duvall hit 38 homers and helped Atlanta to a title, but the sequel was sadly a flop. A torn tendon sheath in his wrist required surgery and ended his season after 86 games, and his .213/.276/.401 line (87 wRC+) prior to the injury left much to be desired. The prospects for a 34-year-old coming off both surgery and a down season don't seem great, but there are still reasons to be in on Duvall as a late lottery ticket. While both his 32.1 K% and 6.7 BB% were quite poor, he found success despite very similar numbers the year before. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard last season, though a drop in hard-hit rate from 43.9% to 40.4% is far from catastrophic. It's also the sort of thing that can be explained by a bothersome wrist. In theory, correcting that issue could allow him to return to 2021 form, making him a cheap source of power for those who can handle the batting average downside, though that would require a team liking him enough to give him a starting job. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

#379

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 215

DOB 9/4/1988

Born Louisville, KY

College Louisville

Drafted 11th Rd 2010 SF

Launches first spring HR

OFBoston Red Sox

March 13, 2023

Duvall went 1-for-2 with a solo home run in Sunday's spring game against the Yankees.

ANALYSIS
Duvall had been hitless over his first six Grapefruit League games (14 plate appearances) before going on a three-game hit streak that included his first spring home run and extra-base hit. A corner outfielder for most of his career, the 34-year-old Duvall will be tasked to play a majority of innings in center field, a position normally reserved for younger legs. He began a transition to center field in 2021 and played a career-high 382 innings there last season. Duvall's coming off wrist surgery and a down year, so when you add in playing one of the diamond's more challenging positions, he's a risky bet in 2023.

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Batting Stats

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2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+4%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+36%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+36%

OPS vs RHP

2020

+14%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.738	268	34	15	43	0	.215	.276	.462
Since 2020vs Right	.765	806	106	51	139	5	.229	.287	.478
2022vs Left	.844	78	13	6	12	0	.233	.282	.562
2022vs Right	.620	237	26	6	24	0	.206	.274	.346
2021vs Left	.610	142	13	6	24	0	.178	.254	.357
2021vs Right	.827	413	54	32	89	5	.245	.291	.536
2020vs Left	.933	48	8	3	7	0	.289	.333	.600
2020vs Right	.816	156	26	13	26	0	.221	.295	.521
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+12%

OPS on Road

2022

+25%

OPS on Road

2021

+27%

OPS on Road

2020

+48%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.716	493	67	29	81	1	.219	.270	.446
Since 2020Away	.805	563	72	37	101	4	.234	.297	.509
2022Home	.601	155	18	6	18	0	.196	.252	.350
2022Away	.751	160	21	6	18	0	.229	.300	.451
2021Home	.677	262	30	16	46	1	.202	.244	.433
2021Away	.859	293	37	22	67	4	.252	.314	.545
2020Home	1.096	76	19	7	17	0	.328	.395	.701
2020Away	.741	110	14	9	16	0	.194	.245	.495
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Stat Review

How does Adam Duvall compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.21

BB Rate

6.7%

K Rate

32.1%

BABIP

.278

ISO

.188

AVG

.213

OBP

.276

SLG

.401

OPS

.677

wOBA

.297

Exit Velocity

88.3 mph

Hard Hit Rate

33.5%

Barrels/PA

7.6%

Expected BA

.209

Expected SLG

.395

Sprint Speed

23.3 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

29.3%

Line Drive %

18.6%

Fly Ball %

52.1%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

How is this for a timeline: Duvall became a free agent after the 2020 season when Atlanta did not sign him. He went to Miami on a two-year deal, but ended up back with Atlanta. All he did was help win a ring, win a Gold Glove and lead the NL in RBI with 113. Last season marked the third time in his career he has reached the 30-homer plateau, and he and his employers have embraced both what he is and what he is not. He is never going to hit even league average with his aggressive approach and high strikeout totals, but in 2021, he was a monster with runners in scoring position (.326/.367/.757). When nobody was on, Duvall hit .172/.231/.354. The numbers with runners on base were well above his career average, so one has to plan for a less productive season in 2022. Draft the power, but do not overpay.

Expanded rosters and the universal DH paved the way for Duvall to begin the season as the Braves' right-handed component of a right-field platoon. After slashing .412/.500/.824 through Aug. 5, Duvall earned a regular lineup spot. Duvall slumped to .190/.226/.329 over his next 21 games, but then from Sept. 2 on, he crushed 11 homers, fueling a .245/.324/.649 line down the stretch. There's a good chance Duvall would have slowed down again as his batted-ball data didn't support the power surge, though he posted a career-low 25.8 K%. His flyball tendencies drive plus power, but they also deflate his BABIP, so he remains a BA risk. Atlanta non-tendered the 32-year-old outfielder, sending him to the free-agent market. Duvall's second-half power surge should help him find work, but he only merits a mixed-league roster spot with regular at-bats.

Despite cracking 64 homers from 2016-17, Duvall opened the 2019 campaign with Triple-A Gwinnett following a poor spring. Though, to be fair, it wasn't just his spring numbers; Duvall had a terrible 2018, including a .132/.193/.151 line with Atlanta to end the 2018 season. Duvall righted the ship with the Stripers, finally earning a ticket back to the big leagues July 27. After a hot start, Duvall cooled and was optioned twice before coming up for good after rosters expanded. His .267/.315/.567 performance was a significant improvement over the previous season while bashing 42 homers combined suggests the power stroke is still there. Duvall's best pathway to playing time is on the small side of a platoon as his OPS facing left-handers since 2017 is .842, checking in at 1.130 last year, albeit in just 44 plate appearances. If Duvall wins a full-time job, he's worth a late flier. Otherwise he's NL-only fodder.

Duvall was unable to follow up on his back-to-back 30 homer seasons. His offensive production fell off considerably and he was eventually traded to Atlanta before the deadline for some bench depth. His overall skills were in line with recent seasons, but Duvall regressed quite a bit in 2018 against southpaws, hitting .186/.286/.351 in 126 plate appearances. That was in sharp contrast to the above-average seasons Duvall enjoyed against lefties in both 2016 and 2017. We don't know if the 2018 numbers reflect the new Duvall or if they will prove an outlier against the better work that he did the prior two years. Statcast data says Duvall's overall numbers underperformed given the quality of his contact. The Braves brought back Nick Markakis, and now Duvall will need an injury to avoid being a short-side platoon player to begin 2019.

After being a pleasant surprise from the Mike Leake trade, many thought that Duvall would have difficulty repeating his 2016 breakout performance. However, that's essentially what Duvall did in 2017, reprising nearly the same output in all five standard categories. It appeared that he might even exceed his 2016 production, but a September collapse (.218/.284/.276 with no homers in his last 30 games) prevented that. The dilemma for the Reds is whether his low-OBP, good-power level is good enough when the team is ready to contend. Between Duvall, Billy Hamilton and Scott Schebler, they have three outfielders that are good at some aspects of the game but lacking in others -- all while Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are knocking at the door to find playing time. The guess here is that Duvall will maintain his level and playing time for one more year, but when he starts to become more expensive the Reds will find better alternatives.

Duvall's power long made him an intriguing player in the Giants' organization, but prior to last season, he was never on the field for more than 27 big league games in a season. The Reds, in need of offense and help in left field, had little difficulty finding playing time for Duvall in 2016, and he turned 608 plate appearances into a .241/.297/.498 line with 33 homers and 103 RBI. As the season progressed, Duvall showed improvement in his plate discipline, lowering his strikeout rate from 29.0 percent before the All-Star break to 24.6 percent thereafter, and pushing his walk rate from 4.9 percent to 8.8 percent during that span. With a better eye at the plate, however, he offered less pop, slugging .434 in the second half after toting a .551 mark in the first half. Duvall should reprise his role as the Reds' regular left fielder to begin 2017, where he may end up competing for at-bats with Scott Schebler once Jesse Winker becomes a fixture in the lineup.

Duvall has always had tremendous power, but his ability to control the strike zone has been sub-optimal. His brief big league trial with the Reds after he arrived in the Mike Leake trade demonstrated both of those qualities. He homered five times and had a .265 ISO in 72 plate appearances, but he also struck out 36 percent of the time. He could fit in one of two openings for the Reds in 2016 — either in left field where he played last year, or third base in the wake of the Todd Frazier trade. It's possible that he reaches 20 homers and hits .210 in the process.

It is tough to overlook a corner infielder that owns a career slash line of .269/.345/.501 in the minors and hit .298/.360/.599 last season, but you should. Duvall thrived in the Pacific Coast League last season as he did two seasons ago in the California League when he hit 30 home runs. He has 100 minor league home runs in 500 games, but is 26 and has seen just 77 plate appearances in the big leagues. He did hit three home runs last season in that time, but also struck out 20 times. His minor-league splits show someone who hits better against lefties but does not embarrass himself against righties. He is not a prospect, but players who show pop tend to get their chances, and Duvall’s future as a backup to the corners will hinge upon his ability to make more contact the second time around.

More Fantasy News

Good to go for spring

OFBoston Red Sox

January 25, 2023

Duvall (wrist) said Tuesday at his introductory press conference with the Red Sox that he'll be "full go" for spring training, Gabrielle Star of the Boston Herald reports.

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Gets one-year deal from BoSox

OFBoston Red Sox

Wrist

January 18, 2023

Duvall (wrist) agreed Wednesday with the Red Sox on a one-year, $7 million contract that includes up to $3 million in playing time-based incentives, Craig Mish of SportsGrid.com reports.

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Shifted to 60-day IL

OFAtlanta Braves

Wrist

August 10, 2022

Duvall (wrist) was transferred to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.

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Requires season-ending surgery

OFAtlanta Braves

Wrist

July 24, 2022

Duvall, who was placed on the 10-day injured list Sunday, will undergo surgery on his left wrist and miss the rest of the season, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.

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Placed on 10-day IL

OFAtlanta Braves

Wrist

July 24, 2022

Duvall (wrist) was placed on the 10-day injured list Sunday, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.

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