AJ Smith-Shawver

AJ Smith-Shawver

22-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Smith-Shawver has entered the post-hype phase of being a prospect. He surprisingly made five big-league starts as a 20-year-old in 2023 and cruised through three levels of the minors. However, he was less outstanding over 20 starts at Triple-A in 2024, which, combined with an oblique injury, limited him to one MLB start in the regular season and one emergency start in the postseason. Smith-Shawver has always had good fastball velocity (96.2 mph average in 2024), but the pitch lacked the same caliber of movement that it had in 2023, which led to him giving up 20 home runs in 87 innings at Triple-A. He walked 11 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2024 and 15.2 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2023, so it's not a given that Smith-Shawver will throw enough strikes to start. He's just entering his age-22 season, so it's too early to give up on the athletic righty, but 2025 is his last option year, so he'll need to show sharper stuff and more consistency to continue to be viewed as a rotation piece in Atlanta. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#410
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with Atlanta in March of 2024.
Set for rotation spot
PAtlanta Braves
March 24, 2025
Smith-Shawver is expected to begin the season in the Atlanta rotation, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
With Ian Anderson traded to the Angels on Sunday and Bryce Elder optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett, Smith-Shawver is the last man standing in camp for the fifth starter job. The 22-year-old right-hander earned the assignment by posting a 20:5 K:BB through 16 Grapefruit League innings, and that strikeout potential gives him significant fantasy upside with a potent Atlanta offense at his back. Smith-Shawver will need to out-perform Grant Holmes to stay in the rotation once Spencer Strider (elbow) is cleared for his 2025 debut, however.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-29%
BAA vs RHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-52%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .214 67 14 11 12 1 0 5
Since 2023vs Right .151 56 10 2 8 0 0 2
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .000 8 3 2 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right .300 10 1 0 3 0 0 0
2023vs Left .240 59 11 9 12 1 0 5
2023vs Right .116 46 9 2 5 0 0 2
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-29%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.20 1.07 19.2 1 0 0 5.9 3.7 1.8
Since 2023Away 4.50 1.20 10.0 0 0 0 9.9 4.5 2.7
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0.00 1.15 4.1 0 0 0 8.3 4.2 0.0
2023Home 3.20 1.07 19.2 1 0 0 5.9 3.7 1.8
2023Away 7.94 1.24 5.2 0 0 0 11.1 4.8 4.8
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring AJ Smith-Shawver See More
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15 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
The second-youngest pitcher to make five-plus starts in the majors last year (only Eury Perez was younger), Smith-Shawver has an impressive combination of youth, size and stuff. He dominated over three starts at High-A and two starts at Double-A before spending the bulk of his age-20 season going back and forth between Triple-A and the majors. The 6-foot-3 righty sat 93-96 mph with his plus fastball while touching 98 mph in the big leagues. He has touched triple digits in the past, but command and control have been lacking at times, so he may have dialed back his velocity in favor of more control during his 25.1 innings in the majors. Smith-Shawver threw his mid-80s slider 22 percent of the time while throwing his upper-70s curveball and fourth-pitch changeup each over 10 percent of the time, so it's a true four-pitch mix. All three secondary offerings can flash plus, but his breaking balls are more consistent than his changeup. He missed over two weeks with shoulder inflammation in the second half but returned to make four appearances in September. All told, he tallied 87.1 innings across four levels, so we can hope for around 140 innings in 2024 with good health. The main thing to keep in mind with Smith-Shawver is that he is still developing and could be far from a finished product. His command, secondary offerings and sequencing could all improve over the next couple years.
Smith-Shawver, an over-slot prep righty whom Atlanta gave almost $1 million to after selecting him in the seventh round in 2021, has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the entire minors. His fastball touches the upper-90s with elite movement and his upper-80s slider is already a monster bat misser. Smith-Shawver is still very raw as a pitcher, however, as his delivery and command need significant refinement. He made 17 starts in Single-A last season and went five-plus innings with two or fewer walks on five occasions, so there were flashes of him putting it all together, but his 13.0 BB% and 1.35 WHIP on the year showcase how far he still has to go. Smith-Shawver's third-pitch changeup isn't very usable right now, but the main thing for him is streamlining his plus athleticism into a repeatable delivery that allows him to throw enough strikes to start. If he does that and stays healthy, the sky is the limit, even with a mediocre third pitch.
More Fantasy News
Could be part of initial rotation
PAtlanta Braves
March 21, 2025
Smith-Shawver was bumped from his Grapefruit League start Thursday and will pitch instead against the Rays on Friday, a move that suggests he's being put on schedule to start March 31 against the Dodgers, Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
ANALYSIS
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Impressing in camp
PAtlanta Braves
March 18, 2025
Smith-Shawver, who struck out eight over four innings in Saturday's Grapefruit League start against the Twins, could make the Opening Day roster even if Atlanta also carries Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Still in mix for rotation spot
PAtlanta Braves
March 12, 2025
Smith-Shawver has a 3.38 ERA and 10:3 K:BB through eight Grapefruit League innings this spring as he attempts to win a spot in Atlanta's Opening Day rotation.
ANALYSIS
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In mix for starts
PAtlanta Braves
February 7, 2025
Smith-Shawver will get a chance in training camp to win a rotation spot and figures to get opportunities early in the season even if he begins the year back at Triple-A Gwinnett, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Named Game 1 starter
PAtlanta Braves
October 1, 2024
Smith-Shawver will start Tuesday in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series against the Padres, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Might be trade chip
PAtlanta Braves
December 2, 2024
Atlanta could consider trading Smith-Shawver this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Among Atlanta's top three pitching prospects in Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Cam Caminiti, it sounds like Smith-Shawver might be the one the club is most willing to part with. The 22-year-old made one spot start in the majors in 2024 but spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.86 ERA and 104:40 K:BB over 87 innings.
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