AJ Smith-Shawver

AJ Smith-Shawver

22-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
15-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 6/13/2025
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Smith-Shawver has entered the post-hype phase of being a prospect. He surprisingly made five big-league starts as a 20-year-old in 2023 and cruised through three levels of the minors. However, he was less outstanding over 20 starts at Triple-A in 2024, which, combined with an oblique injury, limited him to one MLB start in the regular season and one emergency start in the postseason. Smith-Shawver has always had good fastball velocity (96.2 mph average in 2024), but the pitch lacked the same caliber of movement that it had in 2023, which led to him giving up 20 home runs in 87 innings at Triple-A. He walked 11 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2024 and 15.2 percent of batters at Triple-A in 2023, so it's not a given that Smith-Shawver will throw enough strikes to start. He's just entering his age-22 season, so it's too early to give up on the athletic righty, but 2025 is his last option year, so he'll need to show sharper stuff and more consistency to continue to be viewed as a rotation piece in Atlanta. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#410
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with Atlanta in March of 2025.
Dealing with elbow injury
PAtlanta Braves
Elbow
May 29, 2025
Smith-Shawver was placed on the 15-day injured list Thursday with a right elbow strain.
ANALYSIS
It initially seemed like Smith-Shawver was dealing with a foot/ankle injury after getting hit by a comebacker in the third inning, but the 22-year-old said he felt a pop in his elbow during the game, which could potentially signal a much more serious issue. Manager Brian Snitker said that the right-hander will travel back to Atlanta to undergo imaging but added that "it doesn't look good," per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Smith-Shawver has been a key contributor for Atlanta's rotation this year, but recent struggles have elevated his ERA to 3.86 to go with a 1.42 WHIP through 44.1 innings this year.
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Pitching Stats
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2025
2024
2023
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2024 MLB Game Log
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2023 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
79
Last 10 Games
79
Last 5 Games
80
How many pitches does AJ Smith-Shawver generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does AJ Smith-Shawver generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2025
 
 
-34%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-52%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .207 169 40 19 31 5 0 7
Since 2023vs Right .237 135 25 14 28 4 1 3
2025vs Left .202 102 26 8 19 4 0 2
2025vs Right .308 79 15 12 20 4 1 1
2024vs Left .000 8 3 2 0 0 0 0
2024vs Right .300 10 1 0 3 0 0 0
2023vs Left .240 59 11 9 12 1 0 5
2023vs Right .116 46 9 2 5 0 0 2
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-55%
ERA at Home
2025
 
 
-74%
ERA at Home
2024
No Stats
2023
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 2.35 1.04 38.1 3 1 0 7.0 4.0 1.2
Since 2023Away 5.18 1.58 33.0 1 1 0 9.5 4.4 1.4
2025Home 1.45 1.02 18.2 2 1 0 8.2 4.3 0.5
2025Away 5.48 1.74 23.0 1 1 0 9.4 4.3 0.8
2024Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Away 0.00 1.15 4.1 0 0 0 8.3 4.2 0.0
2023Home 3.20 1.07 19.2 1 0 0 5.9 3.7 1.8
2023Away 7.94 1.24 5.2 0 0 0 11.1 4.8 4.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does AJ Smith-Shawver compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.05
 
K/9
8.9
 
BB/9
4.3
 
HR/9
0.6
 
Fastball
95.5 mph
 
ERA
3.67
 
WHIP
1.42
 
BABIP
.320
 
GB/FB
1.19
 
Left On Base
74.8%
 
Exit Velocity
84.4 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
8.5%
 
Spin Rate
1751 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
34.0%
 
Swinging Strike
11.3%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
The second-youngest pitcher to make five-plus starts in the majors last year (only Eury Perez was younger), Smith-Shawver has an impressive combination of youth, size and stuff. He dominated over three starts at High-A and two starts at Double-A before spending the bulk of his age-20 season going back and forth between Triple-A and the majors. The 6-foot-3 righty sat 93-96 mph with his plus fastball while touching 98 mph in the big leagues. He has touched triple digits in the past, but command and control have been lacking at times, so he may have dialed back his velocity in favor of more control during his 25.1 innings in the majors. Smith-Shawver threw his mid-80s slider 22 percent of the time while throwing his upper-70s curveball and fourth-pitch changeup each over 10 percent of the time, so it's a true four-pitch mix. All three secondary offerings can flash plus, but his breaking balls are more consistent than his changeup. He missed over two weeks with shoulder inflammation in the second half but returned to make four appearances in September. All told, he tallied 87.1 innings across four levels, so we can hope for around 140 innings in 2024 with good health. The main thing to keep in mind with Smith-Shawver is that he is still developing and could be far from a finished product. His command, secondary offerings and sequencing could all improve over the next couple years.
Smith-Shawver, an over-slot prep righty whom Atlanta gave almost $1 million to after selecting him in the seventh round in 2021, has one of the best fastball/slider combos in the entire minors. His fastball touches the upper-90s with elite movement and his upper-80s slider is already a monster bat misser. Smith-Shawver is still very raw as a pitcher, however, as his delivery and command need significant refinement. He made 17 starts in Single-A last season and went five-plus innings with two or fewer walks on five occasions, so there were flashes of him putting it all together, but his 13.0 BB% and 1.35 WHIP on the year showcase how far he still has to go. Smith-Shawver's third-pitch changeup isn't very usable right now, but the main thing for him is streamlining his plus athleticism into a repeatable delivery that allows him to throw enough strikes to start. If he does that and stays healthy, the sky is the limit, even with a mediocre third pitch.
More Fantasy News
Hit by comebacker, exits game
PAtlanta Braves
Lower Leg
May 29, 2025
Smith-Shawver was removed from his start in the first game of Thursday's doubleheader against Philadelphia after getting hit in his lower right leg by a comebacker, Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. He struck out a batter and gave up two earned runs on three hits and one walk over 2.2 innings prior to his exit.
ANALYSIS
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Atlanta-Philadelphia postponed
PAtlanta Braves
May 28, 2025
Smith-Shawver and Atlanta will not play the Phillies on Wednesday after the game was postponed due to rain, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Bad outing versus Nationals
PAtlanta Braves
May 22, 2025
Smith-Shawver allowed seven runs on eight hits and three walks while striking out one over three-plus innings in a no-decision versus Washington on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Atlanta-Washington postponed
PAtlanta Braves
May 21, 2025
Smith-Shawver and Atlanta won't play the Nationals on Wednesday after the game was postponed due to rain in Washington.
ANALYSIS
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Throws six strong innings
PAtlanta Braves
May 15, 2025
Smith-Shawver (3-2) picked up the win Thursday against the Nationals, allowing one unearned run on two hits and two walks across six innings. He struck out six.
ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Might be trade chip
PAtlanta Braves
December 2, 2024
Atlanta could consider trading Smith-Shawver this offseason, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Among Atlanta's top three pitching prospects in Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep and Cam Caminiti, it sounds like Smith-Shawver might be the one the club is most willing to part with. The 22-year-old made one spot start in the majors in 2024 but spent most of the year at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 4.86 ERA and 104:40 K:BB over 87 innings.
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