Alek Thomas

22-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Arizona Diamondbacks AAA

2022 Stats

AVG

.231

RBI

2023 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Thomas opened the season with Triple-A Reno, but after posting a .936 OPS in 27 games, he was called up to the Bigs. Thomas also ended the season with the Aces as he was sent down towards the end to work on pitch recognition. Thomas' game is frequently putting the ball in play, mostly on the ground. Through August 31, he recorded a .285 BABIP. However, it plummeted to .146 in September, prompting his demotion. With limited power and speed, Thomas needs grounders to find holes to be productive. His defense is good, but he'll need to hit to sustain playing time in a crowded and talented Diamondbacks outfield. It may not be long before Thomas takes a backseat to the trio of Daulton Varsho, Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy. In fact, he'll likely be squeezed out of mixed league relevancy with his high contact rate more useful in NL-only formats. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

Overall

Dynasty

League AAA

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 5'11"

Weight 175

DOB 4/28/2000

Born Chicago, IL

College None

Drafted 2nd Rd 2018 ARI

Needs work on pitch selection

OFArizona Diamondbacks AAA

September 27, 2022

Thomas has expanded the strike zone, which was the main reason he was optioned to Triple-A Reno, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. "He's trying to cover everything high, low, in and out. We're encouraging him to shrink up the zone and have a better feel for having an opposite-field approach to stay on the baseball so you don't pull off of it," Arizona manager Torey Lovullo said.

ANALYSIS
Thomas slumped during the month of September, going 1-for-31 since Sept. 10. He alluded to the struggles he's had last week to Piecoro, noting that he's swinging at too many pitcher's pitches, offerings at the outer edge of the plate. Thomas will get a chance to cut the plate in half over the final week at Reno, which has three games remaining in its regular season before a one-game playoff for the Pacific Coast League championship on Friday.

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Batting Stats

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2022

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2020

+41%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+41%

OPS vs RHP

2021

No Stats

2020

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020vs Left	.471	96	6	1	6	1	.198	.229	.242
Since 2020vs Right	.665	315	39	7	33	3	.241	.289	.376
2022vs Left	.471	96	6	1	6	1	.198	.229	.242
2022vs Right	.665	315	39	7	33	3	.241	.289	.376
2021vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020vs Left	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020vs Right	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2020

+30%

OPS on Road

2022

+30%

OPS on Road

2021

No Stats

2020

No Stats

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2020Home	.539	203	25	1	17	2	.220	.261	.277
Since 2020Away	.699	208	20	7	22	2	.242	.288	.411
2022Home	.539	203	25	1	17	2	.220	.261	.277
2022Away	.699	208	20	7	22	2	.242	.288	.411
2021Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2021Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2020Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
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Stat Review

How does Alek Thomas compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.30

BB Rate

5.4%

K Rate

18.0%

BABIP

.263

ISO

.113

AVG

.231

OBP

.275

SLG

.344

OPS

.619

wOBA

.274

Exit Velocity

87.4 mph

Hard Hit Rate

26.0%

Barrels/PA

2.9%

Expected BA

.238

Expected SLG

.335

Sprint Speed

25.9 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

58.0%

Line Drive %

17.0%

Fly Ball %

25.0%

Prospect Rankings History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

Thomas put up impressive numbers (.313/.394/.559, 18 HR, 13 SB in 106 games) at Double-A and Triple-A last season at an appropriate age (21) for a top prospect at those levels. However, it should be noted that he took advantage of the hitter-friendly conditions in Amarillo and Reno (1.086 home OPS, .835 road OPS). Even so, his 20.0 K% and 10.5 BB% were encouraging marks, and he used the whole field at both stops. His groundball rate has been north of 50% at every stop other than High-A in 2019, so it's a hit-over-power profile, and given his slight build (5-foot-11, 175 pounds), it will likely always be that way. The key for Thomas to be a valuable fantasy outfielder will be for him to be hitting first or second in the lineup and putting his plus speed to use on the bases. He was successful on 59.1% of his stolen-base attempts last season and has a 61.5% success rate for his career, so 10-15 steals per season seems like a fair estimate in the majors. He doesn't have much left to prove in the minors, and center field is wide open for him at the big-league level, so we could see him in the first half.

Given the well-deserved hype surrounding Kristian Robinson and Corbin Carroll, Thomas feels a bit like a forgotten man. He can't match the upside of his organizational outfield mates, but Thomas is the elder statesman (turning 21 in late April) and could beat them to the majors. The lefty-hitting center fielder has long fit the archetype of a potential table setter, thanks to a strong hit tool and 60-grade speed. He doesn't have a great arm, but is a good enough defender in center field to be an everyday player even if he never taps into 20-homer pop. Thomas will probably need to become a plus hitter to be a sought after fantasy commodity, otherwise he will be a Kevin Kiermaier type who gets scooped up in the later rounds strictly for his stolen-base contributions. He should open the year at Double-A and should reach the majors in 2022.

Thomas' prospect value peaked when he was riding high in the Midwest League, looking the part of a future five-category center fielder. With a well-rounded tool set that is headlined by plus speed and a potentially plus hit tool, that outcome is still very much in play, but he had a poor showing in a 23-game stint in the Cal League. His K% skyrocketed from 17.9% at Low-A to 31.7% at High-A, and his BB% ticked down. He stopped doing damage when he connected -- his ISO was cut in half and he logged just four extra-base hits in 104 PA. His GB% fell from 55.5% to 46.7%, so he may have been tinkering with his swing after the promotion. He definitely needed to cut down on the groundballs, so this could end up being a positive. A 153 wRC+ in 91 games is more instructive than four weeks' worth of struggles by a 19-year-old at High-A, but he needs to recapture the command of the strike zone he showed at Low-A.

It seemed valid to be concerned about Thomas' lack of physicality during the pre-draft process -- his listed measurements of 5-foot-11, 175 pounds appear pretty generous. The No. 63 overall pick put those concerns to rest by showing above-average potential on both sides of the ball. He stays within himself, lacing the ball to all fields while taking his fair share of walks (8.9 BB%) and rarely striking out (13.6 K%). In addition to showing the potential to develop into a .300 hitter in the big leagues, Thomas puts his plus speed to good use on the bases (12-for-17 on SB attempts in 272 PA). It is possible that he could develop enough power to hit 10-to-15 home runs in a good year, but it will be his batting average, steals and runs that drive his fantasy value. The Diamondbacks will send him to the Midwest League for his first full season. He was one of the younger high schoolers in his class, and won't turn 19 until April 28.

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