Alex Verdugo

If you're sick of hearing about the Mookie Betts trade, just wait for the follow-up to Verdugo's first season in Boston. The subtitle of that sequel should be "Regression City." No player -- aside from perhaps DJ LeMahieu -- outperformed their Statcast expected outcomes to a greater extent than Verdugo. In fact, the differentials between his xBA, xSLG and xwOBA and his actual marks were among the greatest gaps in the league (in all three categories). Verdugo puts bat to ball with consistency and the Red Sox will play him against lefties since Verdugo can handle himself fine against same-handed pitching. Verdugo is far from a burner but has enough speed to approach double-digit steals in a full season. With middling power, Verdugo will be reliant on a high average to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to his fantasy value. He is unlikely to hurt you, but the total package here is modest.

Verdugo impressed in his first extended big-league opportunity in 2019, demonstrating hitting acumen that belies his youth. Among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances, the 23-year-old's 13.0 K% was 21st-best in the league while his 85.2% contact rate ranked 30th. Verdugo doesn't take many walks -- his 6.9 BB% last season was below league average -- but his 6.6% swinging-strike rate is indicative of a keen eye at the plate. While the lefty has thus far demonstrated only average power, his hard-hit rate portends greater long-ball potential with an increase in the 8.8-degree launch angle he posted last season. Verdugo missed most of August and September with related oblique and back injuries, and it was reported in mid-December that Verdugo had yet to resume baseball activities. With his outstanding batting profile, and now with the Red Sox after headlining the return for Mookie Betts, it's not hard to imagine Verdugo blossoming into a .300-plus hitter in the near future.

Verdugo may finally be set for regular playing time in Los Angeles. A second-round pick in 2014, he has been at least 8% better than league average at the plate at every stop on the farm. The hit tool is his carrying tool -- Verdugo has consistently posted low K-rates, never exceeding even 13% above rookie ball, and high batting averages. He's also shown an ability to take a walk (9.0 BB% at Triple-A last season), along with decent in-game power and a splash of speed. His success hasn't translated to the highest level yet, but it's unwise to put any real stock into Verdugo's MLB numbers given how sporadic his opportunities have been. While Verdugo has a fair bit of prospect fatigue, it's important to remember that he's still just 22. The trade that sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to Cincinnati appears to have opened a spot for Verdugo, which should make him a popular late-round target as a fourth or fifth outfielder in mixed leagues.

Verdugo ranked 14th in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League with a .314 batting average and ranked third with a 1.04 BB/K. He also happened to be the youngest hitter in the league. Verdugo has a prototypical all-fields approach. His hit tool is elite, nobody questions that. The one knock that has followed him all the way up the ladder is his inability to hit for enough pop to profile nicely in an outfield corner. However, we’ve seen other hit-over-power prospects -- Jesse Winker comes to mind -- show up in the majors and display power that seemed dormant in the minors. Given Verdugo’s age and 6-foot, 205-pound frame, it seems reasonable to expect him to develop into 20-homer hitter. He will never be much of a threat on the bases, so a lot of his fantasy value will be dependent on where he hits in a loaded Dodgers lineup. He’ll likely be held down to start the year, but should be summoned after a month when the Dodgers have gained an extra year of control.

Verdugo has been pushed aggressively by the Dodgers, as the 20-year-old center fielder has already completed a full season at Double-A and was one of the youngest players at that level in 2016. The left-handed outfielder more than held his own, hitting .273/.336/.407 with 13 home runs and 63 RBI in 126 games. The Dodgers expect the 6-foot, 205-pound Verdugo to develop even more power as he matures and fills out. Curiously, his speed on the basepaths was virtually non-existent. After swiping 14 bags in 2015, he stole just two bases this past season. A former pitcher, Verdugo has a cannon for an arm, and was among the leaders in outfield assists over the past couple of seasons. Since the Dodgers have not been shy about fast-tracking their prospects, expect Verdugo to begin the 2017 campaign at Triple-A and perhaps even make his big-league debut before the season is completed.

A second-round pick in 2014, Verdugo burst out of the gates to the tune of .353/.421/.511 that year and firmly entrenched himself as one of the team's top position prospects. Last year saw him make the big leap from rookie ball to full-season action, and though the results weren't quite as good, a .311/.340/.441 line in 512 at-bats split between Low-A and High-A is still pretty solid. Verdugo's top qualities include his athleticism and raw ability, as though most saw him as a pitcher coming out of High School, the Dodgers like the upside they see in his bat. He can also play center field, which is always a plus. Verdugo walked in just 3.9% of his plate appearances last year, but he showed very good ability against LHP even though he hits from the same side, as Verdugo hit .340 versus southpaws in Low-A. Verdugo doesn't turn 20 until May, but though he's at least two years out from a big league debut, his skill set should be of serious interest in dynasty leagues. He could very well end this year in Double-A where he'll be all of 20 years old.

Verdugo could have been developed as a hitter or a pitcher, but the early returns certainly justify the Dodgers’ decision to deploy the 18-year-old lefty as an outfielder. It would have been difficult to predict the 18-year-old, taken with the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft, would get off to such an impressive start to his career. Verdugo slashed .347/.423/.518 with three home runs and eight steals in 196 plate appearances in the Arizona rookie league, while learning to play center field on a full-time basis. After Corey Seager and Joc Pederson, Verdugo might have the most upside of any of the Dodgers' position player in the minors. Those in dynasty leaguers who invest in Verdugo should be prepared to see some bumps along the way, as he will probably struggle for stretches in 2015. But he should be treated as a first-round talent, as the potential does not match his status as a second-round pick.