Alexander Canario

22-Year-Old OutfielderOF
Chicago Cubs AAA
Injury Ankle
Est. Return 5/1/2023
2023 Fantasy Outlook
In 2021, Canario looked like a slugger with a very low probability of hitting enough to make it as a big-league regular. His 2022 was strong enough that he protected his place on the 40-man roster, but there are still significant questions about the hit tool. Unfortunately, he suffered a broken ankle and dislocated shoulder this offseason in the Dominican Winter League. The power-hitting corner outfielder will miss the start of the season, and he would likely benefit from a rehab assignment before getting back into action at Triple-A. Canario hit .252 with a 27.5 K% on the year, but his 0.62 BB/K in 20 games at Triple-A was his best mark since he was in the Dominican Summer League in 2017. Canario has 70-grade power and will hope to make enough contact to have a Franmil Reyes type of career arc. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year contract with the Cubs in March of 2022.
Timeline coming into view
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
November 7, 2022
Canario underwent surgery on his fractured left ankle last week, and he's scheduled to have surgery on his dislocated left shoulder this week, Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune reports.
Canario suffered both injuries while playing in the Dominican winter league, and the club has since confirmed that the outfielder will not be ready for the start of the 2023 season. The Cubs will likely wait until his second procedure has been completed before providing more information on Canario's timeline for a return.
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Canario could be a Jorge Soler type of producer in real life and in fantasy, hitting plenty of home runs with too many strikeouts while shifting between right field and designated hitter. However, he is still several years away from potentially realizing that best-case scenario. He did a ton of damage at the plate in 2019, but he struck out too much and didn't walk enough. This past summer at the alternate training site, Canario worked on making better swing decisions in an effort to improve his hit tool. He moves well for his size, but will likely slow down to the point that he is not much of a threat on the bases by the time he reaches the majors. The right-handed slugger dealt with recurring left shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2020, culminating in surgery to repair a torn labrum and dislocation that will sideline him through spring training this year. He should open his age-21 season at High-A.
When evaluating Canario's 2019 season, we should largely overlook his 10-game obliteration of the AZL. A 19-year-old hitter repeating that level is a knock in and of itself. Once he got to the Northwest League, he still posted gaudy numbers, but some flaws started to show. Canario gets to his 70-grade raw power with ease. His groundball rate was below 28% at both stops -- only Mike Trout (24.3 GB%) did that last year among qualified MLB hitters. His grooved swing and poor ball/strike recognition led to a 33.6 K% (including NWL playoffs). Strikeouts are his clear weakness, and if he doesn't make necessary adjustments, he will get exposed as he climbs the ladder (think Seuly Matias). Of course, if he improves his command of the zone, he would easily profile as a cleanup-hitting right fielder. An average runner, Canario still saw time in center field last year, but figures to outgrow that position.
Those anxiously trying to add a prospect who dominated in the Dominican Summer League this past season should look at Canario's 2018 as a dose of reality. He logged a 147 wRC+ as a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2017, showcasing a combination of power and speed that was difficult to ignore. However, the DSL is a very unique league. Players who excel there are not guaranteed to have similar success in stateside rookie leagues. Take Canario, whose K% jumped from 14.6% to 24.5% after the jump to the AZL. The quality of his contact also suffered, as he struggled to take what pitchers were giving him (often selling out for power), and saw fewer mistakes to crush. He struck out 14 times in his first eight AZL games, but hit .277/.380/.468 with six home runs and six steals in his final 167 PA. Canario still has a chance to develop into a five-category force (above-average power and speed), but needs to work on using the whole field while letting his power come naturally.
More Fantasy News
Injured in winter league
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
October 29, 2022
Canario suffered a severe ankle break and a shoulder injury Thursday while playing in the Dominican winter league, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports.
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Moves up to Triple-A
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
August 22, 2022
The Cubs promoted Canario from Double-A Tennessee to Triple-A Iowa on Monday, Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register reports.
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Muscling up in Double-A
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
August 3, 2022
Canario hit his 18th homer in 64 games for Double-A Tennessee on Tuesday, lifting his stat line at that level to .255/.339/.560.
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Moves up to Double-A
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
May 10, 2022
The Cubs promoted Canario from High-A South Bend to Double-A Tennessee on Tuesday.
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Included in Bryant trade
OFChicago Cubs  AAA
July 30, 2021
Canario (back) and right-hander Caleb Kilian were traded from the Giants to the Cubs on Friday in exchange for Kris Bryant, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reports.
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