Bobby Dalbec

Bobby Dalbec

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Boston Red Sox
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Dalbec closed 2021 on such a high note that many thought he was on his way to a big 2022. Alas, that never materialized as Dalbec once again struggled to make contact and struggled mightily against righties leading to a demotion to Triple-A and the short side of platoons until injuries forced him into more playing time. Dalbec can still sting a baseball with the best of them, but his infrequent contact with the baseball limit the moments his bat can make a fantasy impact and he instead serves as a drag on your batting average. Doubling down on the issues is he hits down in the lineup which limits his overall run production. You do not give up on power like his in fantasy, but Boston is rumored to be looking to move on from him and that change of scenery may be just what he needs to push up the run production. Of course, excessive playing time could turn his numbers into another Joey Gallo situation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#560
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Red Sox in March of 2022.
Being shopped
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
May 15, 2023
The Red Sox are actively shopping Dalbec, Peter Gammons reports.
ANALYSIS
Gammons reported two National League executives as the source of his intel. Dalbec does not have a path to a regular role with Boston, but both execs believe Dalbec can harness his power and play everyday at third base.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
1
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+26%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
-100%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+24%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+20%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .835 310 31 16 52 1 .266 .339 .496
Since 2021vs Right .664 509 60 21 65 5 .206 .263 .400
2023vs Left .833 8 0 0 0 1 .333 .500 .333
2023vs Right .000 5 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2022vs Left .754 112 14 5 13 0 .240 .348 .406
2022vs Right .606 241 26 7 26 3 .204 .253 .353
2021vs Left .877 190 17 11 39 0 .278 .326 .551
2021vs Right .730 263 33 14 39 2 .212 .278 .452
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
-100%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+1%
OPS on Road
2021
 
 
+30%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .791 396 49 20 64 2 .249 .313 .478
Since 2021Away .670 423 42 17 53 4 .209 .272 .398
2023Home .000 0 1 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000
2023Away .490 13 0 0 0 1 .182 .308 .182
2022Home .648 172 21 6 19 1 .221 .291 .357
2022Away .657 181 19 6 20 2 .209 .276 .380
2021Home .899 224 27 14 45 1 .270 .330 .569
2021Away .689 229 23 11 33 1 .211 .266 .423
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Stat Review
How does Bobby Dalbec compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.29
 
BB Rate
15.4%
 
K Rate
53.8%
 
BABIP
.500
 
ISO
.000
 
AVG
.182
 
OBP
.308
 
SLG
.182
 
OPS
.490
 
wOBA
.243
 
Exit Velocity
95.0 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
50.0%
 
Barrels/PA
0.0%
 
Expected BA
.135
 
Expected SLG
.147
 
Sprint Speed
25.9 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
50.0%
 
Line Drive %
25.0%
 
Fly Ball %
25.0%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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140 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2017
On Aug. 7, Dalbec was slashing a season-low .214/.261/.390, with a 38.1 K% and 4.8 BB%. After, he posted a .299/.378/.732 line with a 26.6 K% and 9.1 BB%. While the change was obviously gradual, the difference before and after the nadir was pitch recognition. Dalbec's numbers against fastballs were consistent all season, but he markedly improved against breaking balls and offspeed stuff. His contact rate on curves and sliders increased to go along with a 5.6-mph bump in average exit velocity while his avgEV on changeups spiked 7.6 mph. Clearly, Dalbec can't maintain the power level exhibited in his final 42 games, but handling curves, sliders and changeups better is a great sign. Playing time, however, is unclear as Dalbec's defense at first base is a work in progress. Buy into Dalbec taking the next step but be leery of regular playing time.
Dalbec either struck out, walked or homered in 62 percent of his first 92 plate appearances in the majors. If he had enough PA to qualify, he would have ranked second in the majors behind Miguel Sano in Barrel% (22.0) and K% (42.4). Sano rode that profile to a .204 batting average, which is around where Dalbec would have ended up if he had played enough for his numbers to stabilize. He is a couple years younger than Sano, so we shouldn't think of him as a finished product, but he clearly needs to cut down on the strikeouts to avoid being a net negative in fantasy. The 25-year-old is a natural third baseman, but he is blocked by Rafael Devers and he will soon be blocked at first base by top prospect Triston Casas. Even so, Boston will find a spot for him if he makes the necessary adjustments and gets to his massive all-fields pop without striking out over 35 percent of the time.
A good prospect, yet a flawed one, Dalbec could be a plus defender at third base who hits for plus power, but he may not hit enough for those strengths to matter. He mastered Double-A (143 wRC+) in a return trip, but his version of mastering a level is a .234/.371/.454 line. His 15.5 BB% at Double-A is exactly what his OBP/points-league managers had in mind, but that mark shriveled to 4.1% in 30 games at Triple-A while his AVG jumped closer to his career .261 mark. A three-true-outcomes profile will work fine in real life, given his power and defense, but if his walk rate doesn't bounce back to at least 10%, there is little evidence he will be able to provide enough offensive value to occupy a corner-infield spot on a contending team. He is a better defender than Rafael Devers, but Devers may be so entrenched that Dalbec moves to first base (where his 70-grade arm would be wasted) or the outfield.
Position players get graded on five tools, but those tools do not count the same. Take Dalbec, whose power, arm and glove are at least 60-grade, and possibly 70-grade tools. But if he ends up with a 30-grade hit tool, those sixes and sevens may not matter. He has never been young for his level, yet his strikeout rate has never been below 31% in full-season ball, and was above 37% at Low-A and Double-A. He also led the Arizona Fall League with 32 strikeouts in 20 games. Prior to his promotion to Double-A, he at least paired those whiffs with a ton of walks, but his BB% fell from 14.3% at High-A to 4.8% at Double-A. Dalbec's swing is geared for the type of contact we want -- line drives and flyballs -- but he needs to make contact at an acceptable clip. One comp comes to mind, if we want to take a glass-half-full outlook: Matt Chapman. However, Chapman's contact rates were always slightly better, and his walk rate never plummeted like Dalbec's did in 2018.
Dalbec was a fourth-round draft pick out of the University of Arizona, where he played third base and pitched. On a positional track in the Red Sox's organization, Dalbec was Babe Ruth reincarnated last summer, bashing seven homers while hitting .386 with a 1.101 OPS in 34 games for short-season Lowell. So, how was it that a player with this much power potential, an anticipated first-rounder after mashing in the Cape Cod League during the summer of 2015, slipped to the fourth round? Dalbec slugged just .429 with seven homers while striking out 36.7 percent of the time in 68 games during his junior year at Arizona. The knock that he was an all-or-nothing hitter with a high K-rate. But something changed between the end of his junior year and his summer in Lowell. Dalbec went back to an open stance -- the same one used during the previous summer. His strikeout rate dropped to a manageable 25 percent, but the question remains if Dalbec can hit enough to overcome the strikeouts.
More Fantasy News
Bound for Triple-A
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
May 12, 2023
The Red Sox optioned Dalbec to Triple-A Worcester on Friday, Christopher Smith of The Springfield Republican reports.
ANALYSIS
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Returns to big club
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
May 7, 2023
The Red Sox recalled Dalbec from Triple-A Worcester on Sunday, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
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Sent down to minors
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
April 17, 2023
The Red Sox optioned Dalbec to Triple-A Worcester on Monday.
ANALYSIS
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Shifts to third base
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
April 14, 2023
Dalbec started at third base and went 0-for-3 in Thursday's 9-3 loss to Tampa Bay.
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Starts at shortstop
1BBoston Red Sox  AAA
April 13, 2023
Dalbec started at shortstop and went 0-for-4 in Wednesday's 9-7 loss to the Rays.
ANALYSIS
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