Bryan Mata

The Red Sox seemingly have a half dozen unproven starting pitchers poised for some form of MLB work in 2023, and Mata is among those. The 6-foot-3 righty underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2021 and made 19 appearances while building up to 83 innings in 2022, primarily working at Double-A and Triple-A. He had an identical 29.4 K% at those levels and an 11.4 BB% at Double-A followed by a 14.7 BB% at Triple-A. Control can be the last skill to return when a pitcher first gets back from TJS, but Mata's strike throwing was suspect even before the procedure. He has had a groundball rate north of 50% at every stop above rookie ball, thanks to a devastating sinker/slider combo. Mata's changeup has emerged as a fine third pitch. It all comes down to his ability to throw enough strikes to start. Boston will surely use Mata in some big-league role this season, as he is on the 40-man roster and could at least help as a multi-inning reliever. The team's other swing men types, save Tanner Houck, can't match Mata's pure stuff, which makes him worth monitoring in spring training and early in the minor-league season.

Mata was only 20 years old when he made his first foray into Double-A ball in 2019, so his 5.03 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over those 53.2 innings shouldn't be judged as harshly as they would be for an older prospect. In fact, his 10.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 can be seen in a favorable light considering the fact that both were tangible improvements over the marks he posted at High-A the previous season. Mata's control remains a work in progress, but his arm is dynamic, as evidenced by his mid-to-high-90s fastball. The offering is made even more appealing by its good sink, and Mata also throws an effective slider and potentially-solid changeup. Boston added Mata to the 40-man roster in November and appears intent on developing the right-hander as a starter, which bodes well for his dynasty appeal. If he can continue to get the walks down, Mata could find himself in the Red Sox rotation as soon as 2022.

Mata was one of three pitching prospects to enter the offseason as 20-year-olds with double-digit upper-level starts under their belt. Deivi Garcia and Adrian Morejon were the other two. Oddly enough, all three carry significant reliever risk, but for different reasons. With Mata, it will come down to how many strikes he throws. He logged a 17.7 BB% in 17 starts at High-A in 2018, but halved that mark in a return to the Carolina League and was up to a 10.3 BB% in 11 Double-A starts. A long-levered 6-foot-3 Venezuelan righty, Mata boasts a mid-90s two-seam fastball, a plus slider and a solid changeup that could develop into an above-average offering. He should return to Double-A for a month or two before spending the rest of the year at Triple-A. Mata has a very high ceiling, but he will need to prove his command gains were for real in his age-21 season.

Mata wasn't the best pitcher in the Sally League last season, but he was easily the youngest and still managed a 3.39 FIP over 17 starts. His 6-foot-3, 160-pound frame screams projection, so while his fastball sits in the low-90s, it is reasonable to expect that pitch to be a plus mid-90s offering in two or three years. He has a very advanced changeup for someone who won't turn 19 until May, and while his curveball is more of a show-me pitch right now, he has plenty of time to refine it. As with any teenage pitcher, his command needs some work, but he is way ahead of schedule in that regard, which is why he was given such an aggressive assignment last season. This is the type of pitching prospect who may not put up monster strikeout numbers until he is in Double-A or Triple-A, so in many dynasty leagues, he doesn't have to be rostered just yet. That said, there is a lot more upside here than meets the eye.