Cal Quantrill

Quantrill was a full-time starter in 2022 and took a small step back, logging a 3.38 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 128:47 K:BB while going 15-5 over 32 starts spanning 186.1 innings. Aside from the durability, there's nothing particularly remarkable about the right-hander -- he was a steady innings-eater that wouldn't hurt the ratios. Every fantasy team needs a guy like that, but managers need to make up for Quantrill's lack of strikeouts with their early-round picks. He can safely be penciled in as the Guardians' No. 3 starter behind Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie heading into 2023. Quantrill leans heavily on a 93.6 mph sinker and an 88.5 mph cutter after taking the slider out of his repertoire last season.

Quantrill recorded a 2.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, fanning 20 in 26.2 innings over 17 relief appearances before transitioning to the rotation. After getting stretched out for a few outings, Quantrill posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 89 punchouts over his final 112 innings, spanning 19 starts. A lucky .267 BABIP and 80% LOB mark aided Quantrill as his ERA estimators all pegged his actual to be over a run higher. He's not dominant with a 19.6 K%, but Cleveland has a knack for getting the most from their hurlers and Quantrill does throw a slider and changeup with double-digit SwStrk percentages, so maybe they can work their magic again. Quantrill should break camp in the Guardians' rotation but beware of paying for 2021's success. There is upside with more strikeouts. Chasing it is risky.

Cleveland has had the touch lately when it comes to starting pitchers, and Quantrill is a sneaky candidate to be next to break out after he was acquired from San Diego in the Mike Clevinger deal. Small sample warning: in eight appearances (14.2 innings) after the trade, Quantrill had a 1.84 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He relied primarily on his 95-mph sinker and 86-mph slider. His changeup usage declined significantly year over year, though the changeup was more effective with less frequent usage. Quantrill does not get as many groundballs as you might expect with that repertoire (career 43.7 GB%), but he may have found the sweet spot in terms of pitch mix and the improved control down the stretch was particularly encouraging (3.3 BB% with Cleveland). There will be starts available and Quantrill will be at the top of the list to step into the rotation if he isn't there right away on Opening Day.

Quantrill's rookie season was a mixed bag. Just four of his 18 starts were of the quality variety, but he was pitching quite well for a stretch until he tired late in the season. He had a four-start stretch from Aug. 27 to Sept. 15 in which he allowed 28 earned runs in 16.2 innings, taking his ERA from a strong 3.32 to an ugly 5.33 ERA. The Padres allowed him one more start before shutting him down for the season, and he finished with a 5.16 ERA. He simply ran into a buzzsaw there with starts against the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Cubs and at Coors Field which ruined what had been a solid statistical rookie season. His limited strikeout production is tough to roster in shallow mixed leagues, but the young man has a solid skills base to be a productive pitcher moving forward and is better than what his ERA showed last year. He will compete for a rotation spot in camp, but will likely open the year at Triple-A.

Quantrill's stock may have peaked prior to the 2017 season, when many evaluators projected a future No. 3 starter with a chance to be a No. 2. One can still dream on a potentially plus-plus changeup and a borderline plus fastball, but he was too inconsistent with his mechanics and command last year to flash upper-rotation upside very often. An athletic 6-foot-2 righty, Quantrill underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015, which is why he is heading into his age-23 season with less than 50 innings under his belt at Double-A. If his command were to jump a grade and he added a tick to his fastball, we could still comfortably project a No. 3 starter, but given his age and proximity to the majors, it seems safer to expect a No. 4 starter at this point. There may be outlets that are slower to adjust to this new reality, so he could still fetch a top-100 prospect this offseason. He could make his big-league debut in the second half.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery in March 2015, Quantrill fell out of the mix for last year's No. 1 overall pick. The Padres used the situation to their advantage and landed him with a slightly over-slot deal at No. 8. The early returns suggest they got the best college arm in the draft. He has a deadly changeup, but unlike most minor leaguers with plus changeups, his fastball sits in the mid-90s, serving as a second plus pitch. His slider is good enough for him to safely project as a mid-rotation starter, but if it were to jump a grade in the coming years, Quantrill would have the repertoire of a No. 2 starter. It will take him a couple of years to build up his innings to the point that he eases workload concerns, but he has a starter's frame, so his body should hold up. Despite barely getting any work at Low-A Tri-City or Fort Wayne last year, he is advanced enough to get an assignment to High-A Lake Elsinore this year, joining one of the best rotations in the minors.