Carlos Hernandez

Carlos Hernandez

26-Year-Old PitcherRP
Kansas City Royals
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Typically, a 97 mph fastball would be an encouraging sign, but while Hernandez has velocity, he's yet to do much with it. Hitters tagged his primary pitch for a .366 batting average and .581 slugging percentage in 2022, leading to an ugly 7.39 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across 56 innings. Hernandez started only seven of his 27 appearances last season, posting a 9.10 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in 29.2 innings in the rotation. His time as a reliever was rather unconvincing as well, though he allowed multiple runs in just three of his last 18 appearances. If he can make his pitches more evasive and trim down an ugly 11.7 percent walk rate, there's some upside here as a starter or a high-leverage reliever. It won't do fantasy managers much good if he ends up in a dreaded swingman role or in the minors to begin 2023, though it's a possibility if he doesn't adjust. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#601
ADP
$Signed a one-year contract with the Royals in March of 2021.
Set to open Monday
PKansas City Royals
June 4, 2023
Hernandez (thumb) will start Monday's game against the Marlins, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Hernandez exited Friday's game after a callus on his thumb opened up, but he'll return to the mound Monday in Miami to serve as Kansas City's opener. The 26-year-old has a 4.76 ERA across 28.1 innings this season and should cover a frame or two before giving way to bulk pitcher Mike Mayers.
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Pitching Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
21
Last 10 Games
22
Last 5 Games
23
How many pitches does Carlos Hernandez generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Carlos Hernandez generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-34%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
2022
 
 
-45%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-29%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2021vs Left .199 338 75 39 59 9 2 7
Since 2021vs Right .301 411 75 41 108 21 1 10
2023vs Left .218 58 19 3 12 1 0 1
2023vs Right .230 67 22 5 14 4 0 2
2022vs Left .214 113 21 14 21 6 1 3
2022vs Right .389 153 14 17 51 10 0 4
2021vs Left .182 167 35 22 26 2 1 3
2021vs Right .257 191 39 19 43 7 1 4
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2021
 
 
-15%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-71%
ERA on Road
2022
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-54%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2021Home 5.44 1.56 86.0 3 5 0 7.2 4.6 0.9
Since 2021Away 4.60 1.31 86.0 3 5 0 8.5 3.8 0.8
2023Home 7.43 1.50 13.1 0 1 0 10.1 3.4 1.4
2023Away 2.12 0.82 17.0 0 2 0 13.8 1.6 0.5
2022Home 5.40 1.80 26.2 0 2 0 5.4 6.4 0.7
2022Away 9.20 1.88 29.1 0 3 0 5.8 3.7 1.5
2021Home 4.89 1.43 46.0 3 2 0 7.4 3.9 1.0
2021Away 2.27 1.11 39.2 3 0 0 8.2 4.8 0.5
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Stat Review
How does Carlos Hernandez compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
5.13
 
K/9
12.2
 
BB/9
2.4
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
99.1 mph
 
ERA
4.45
 
WHIP
1.12
 
BABIP
.341
 
GB/FB
0.96
 
Left On Base
63.8%
 
Exit Velocity
81.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.2%
 
Spin Rate
2199 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
19.4%
 
Swinging Strike
15.9%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
Hernandez began the season as a reliever then transitioned to the Royals rotation after the break. He throws four pitches, led by a 97-mph fastball. While it's curious his K% was only 20.7%, Hernandez's swinging strike mark portended a rate a couple ticks higher. That said, unless Hernandez improves his 11.5% BB%, he'll need more than a few additional punch outs to manage his ratios. To that end, his 3.68 ERA was pegged as at least a run lucky by its estimators. He benefited from a fortunate .267 BABIP and 7.3% HR/FB mark along with a 74.7% LOB mark, three points above league average. Hernandez has a live arm worth a speculative investment with a strong chance to win a spot in Kansas City's rotation. Just don't expect last season's ERA, though fewer walks puts a repeat in play.
Despite not having pitched above Low-A prior to last season, the Royals brought Hernandez to their alternate training site and eventually gave him three big-league starts in September. The 23-year-old predictably struggled, but his numbers could have been a lot worse, all things considered. Hernandez has the raw stuff to justify that jump in competition, averaging 96.2 mph with his power sinker last year and having touched triple digits with his four-seamer in the minors. He also features a curveball and changeup that have both flashed plus on occasion. Hernandez has the big, sturdy frame to handle a starting role, but he's had trouble staying healthy, slowing his development, and his career high in innings in any season is only 79.1 The Royals have enough pitching depth that they don't need to throw Hernandez back into the fire right away, but he's put himself in the team's future rotation plans.
More Fantasy News
Dealing with thumb issue
PKansas City Royals
Thumb
June 2, 2023
Hernandez left Friday's game versus the Rockies when a callus on his thumb opened up, Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City reports.
ANALYSIS
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Leaves with apparent injury
PKansas City Royals
Undisclosed
June 2, 2023
Hernandez left Friday's game against the Rockies with an apparent injury, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Takes second loss
PKansas City Royals
May 30, 2023
Hernandez (0-2) allowed a run on two hits and struck out two over one inning, taking the loss Tuesday versus the Cardinals.
ANALYSIS
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Starting again Sunday
PKansas City Royals
May 20, 2023
Hernandez will start Sunday's game versus the White Sox, Pete Grathoff of The Kansas City Star reports.
ANALYSIS
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Strikes out four as opener
PKansas City Royals
May 17, 2023
Hernandez allowed two hits and struck out four over two scoreless innings in a no-decision versus the Padres on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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