Dinelson Lamet

Lamet made the leap from a volatile source of strikeouts to borderline ace in 2020. The driving force behind his success was his slider, which he used at a league-high 53% rate -- Patrick Corbin had the second-highest usage at a 40% clip -- and limited opposing batters to a .162 xSLG while generating a 47.4 Whiff%. Lamet also flashed an improved fastball, and combined to use his fastball-slider combination 90% of the time. While it's fair to say Lamet earned his results in 2020, it must also be noted that he limited both walks and home runs at a level he previously hadn't shown. Risk of regression is only heightened by his reliance on his slider and limitations as a two-pitch pitcher. Lamet is expected to avoid surgery on his elbow after going down late in the season, but he is still extremely risky from a health/workload standpoint heading into 2021.

Every offseason, someone gains helium to the point they're "so underrated, they're overrated." Lamet could be that guy, coming off his first action since missing 2018 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander debuted July 4 and fireworks ensued as Lamet fanned 105 in just 73 frames. His 33.6 K% would have ranked fourth among qualified starters if he pitched ample innings. Lamet's 9.6 BB% was high, though an improvement from his rookie season. While command was likely an issue, Lamet was also a bit unlucky as his 77th percent average exit velocity should have portended lower marks in BABIP (.311) and HR/FB (19.7%). There's little doubt Lamet has the stuff to be a difference maker and barring a complete breakdown, he'll break camp in the Padres' rotation. The key will be controlling his slider to complement his plus fastball and developing his changeup as a viable third pitch.

Lamet tantalized with his performance in 2017, making him a popular sleeper during draft season, but he did not end up throwing a single pitch in 2018. The right-hander left a March 25 spring training game with elbow discomfort, and while the Padres were initially hopeful that they would get him back in the rotation by May, Tommy John surgery was ultimately deemed necessary. There has been little from the team regarding his progress, but Lamet will likely be out until the summer months. The last time we saw Lamet in regular-season action, he was dominating right-handed batters while showing an impressive strikeout punch. His detractors wisely pointed to the lack of a third pitch -- he began throwing a curveball last spring before getting hurt -- and the heavy reliance on the slider. He's a big unknown after the long layoff and it's probably wise to just wait and see if he can A) return to full health and B) regain a similar level of effectiveness.

Lamet rode his high-90s fastball and wipeout slider to a 28.7 strikeout percentage in 2017, which ranked 12th among major-league pitchers with 100-plus innings. The 25-year-old only worked 49.2 Triple-A innings, so he lacks polish around the plate (4.3 BB/9 with the Padres, 3.8 in his minor-league career). It's also difficult to trust this lineup for run support. Even with these obstacles, he showed promise in the second half, sporting a 3.80 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 73.1 innings while giving up just 0.98 homers per nine innings, hinting he may be correcting that major issue. Developing a reliable third pitch -- his changeup or sinker -- might be Lamet's elixir for left-handed bats, who tagged him for a .364 wOBA. Petco Park provides a favorable environment for talented pitchers to develop, and cheap investments in flawed, strikeout-heavy arms often go a long way in fantasy.

This is an example of how scouting the stats can be dangerous. Lamet's minor league numbers last year, particularly his 91:31 K:BB in 74.1 innings at Double-A, would suggest he is a promising pitching prospect with the potential to make an impact in the big league rotation this season. He may make an impact in the majors in 2017, but it is unlikely to be as a successful starting pitcher. His command is shaky at best, and he lacks a third pitch. At 24 years old, it is hard to expect that third pitch to show up, leaving Lamet destined for relief. Of course, considering the lack of quality options in the big league rotation, he may be allowed to fail as a starter before the transition to the bullpen is made. Once in the bullpen, his fastball should sit in the mid-to-high-90s and his slider could serve as an out pitch, meaning a high-leverage role could be in store down the road.