Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith

27-Year-Old First Baseman1B
Washington Nationals
2023 Fantasy Outlook
For the second year in a row, Smith's underlying metrics portended better production. His average exit velocity and Hard Hit rate were both his second highest ever, bettered only by his breakthrough 2020 campaign. His strikeout and walk rates were in line with career marks, but he posted a meek 67 wRC+. The Mets opted to cut bait, non-tendering him so Smith is looking for a new home. Actually, that could be what Smith needs since Citi Field is one of the least favorable hitting venues. Smith was surprisingly able to secure a major-league deal with the Nationals despite the recent struggles, and it appears he'll open 2022 as the club's primary first baseman, which could put him in the middle of an underwhelming lineup. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#545
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Nationals in January of 2023.
Signs one-year deal with Nationals
1BWashington Nationals
January 3, 2023
Smith agreed to terms on a one-year, $2 million contract with the Nationals on Tuesday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
Smith was presumably looking for a landing spot with few obstacles in his path to playing time as he looks to rebuild his career after a pair of down seasons, and he's seemingly found one in Washington. After hitting .299/.366/.571 in 2019 and 2020, he hit just .233/.298/.345 across the past two years. Even a modest bounce-back should be enough to secure him a spot as the Nationals' primary first baseman, but it's far from guaranteed that one is on the cards.
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Batting Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
14
9
8
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+10%
OPS vs LHP
2022
 
 
+1%
OPS vs RHP
2021
 
 
+26%
OPS vs LHP
2020
 
 
+29%
OPS vs RHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020vs Left .767 218 16 4 39 0 .282 .362 .404
Since 2020vs Right .699 619 65 17 78 2 .238 .297 .402
2022vs Left .553 22 2 0 5 0 .176 .318 .235
2022vs Right .560 130 9 0 12 0 .197 .269 .291
2021vs Left .783 139 7 2 20 0 .312 .367 .416
2021vs Right .622 354 36 9 38 2 .218 .280 .343
2020vs Left .803 57 7 2 14 0 .239 .368 .435
2020vs Right 1.032 135 20 8 28 0 .331 .370 .661
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2020
 
 
+5%
OPS on Road
2022
 
 
+43%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+10%
OPS on Road
2020
 
 
+18%
OPS on Road
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2020Home .707 396 36 8 58 0 .254 .318 .389
Since 2020Away .740 448 45 13 59 2 .251 .315 .425
2022Home .678 65 3 0 9 0 .250 .338 .339
2022Away .473 87 8 0 8 0 .154 .230 .244
2021Home .635 237 18 3 32 0 .243 .308 .327
2021Away .697 256 25 8 26 2 .246 .301 .397
2020Home .906 94 15 5 17 0 .282 .330 .576
2020Away 1.071 105 12 5 25 0 .348 .419 .652
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Stat Review
How does Dominic Smith compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.32
 
BB Rate
7.9%
 
K Rate
24.3%
 
BABIP
.263
 
ISO
.090
 
AVG
.194
 
OBP
.276
 
SLG
.284
 
OPS
.560
 
wOBA
.255
 
Exit Velocity
89.6 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
25.3%
 
Barrels/PA
4.6%
 
Expected BA
.219
 
Expected SLG
.360
 
Sprint Speed
22.4 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
47.5%
 
Line Drive %
16.2%
 
Fly Ball %
36.4%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dominic Smith See More
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192 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Smith's first full season with regular playing time did not go as planned as his production fell across the board. However, things may not be as discouraging as they seem. Smith's K% was in line with past seasons, though his 6.5% BB% was his lowest since 2018. A low BABIP and a precipitous decline in HR/FB were the culprits. While Smith's .368 BABIP in 2020 wreaked of good luck, his .298-mark last season was artificially low, with 2019's .320 most representative of his talent. His 10.9% HR/FB rate was wholly unlucky as his exit velocity on fly balls was like 2020. Further, Smith's average fly ball distance was eight feet longer last season compared to 2020, but his 2020 HR/FB was 22.2%. Smith's xStats from last season most resemble those from 2019, but he was also lucky that season. A rebound is in store, with playing time hinging on a universal DH since the Mets fortified their outfield.
It wasn't that long ago that Smith was attempting to prove he deserved an extended chance in the majors. His .937 OPS over the past two seasons shows he clearly belongs. Smith led the Mets in 2020 with a 165 wRC+ and 42 RBI, and he also tied for fourth in the majors with 32 extra-base hits (10 homers, one triple, 21 doubles). His defense remains a hindrance, but he served as the designated hitter only five times and split most of his time between first base and left field. His strong numbers over the past two seasons span only 139 games, so there's some question of whether it will translate across a full 162-game slate. Smith showed enough to guarantee playing time heading into spring training, but whether or not the National League adopts the DH again in 2021 will play a role in what those opportunities look like, especially with Pete Alonso not going anywhere.
We knew Smith could hit coming up through the minor leagues, so it was nice to see him hit for average for the first time at the major-league level last season in the playing time he did get. Smith is a defensive liability and that hurts his playing time as he is a hitter without a true position. Maybe he could be another James Loney if everything comes together for him offensively, but it's tough to envision 300 plate appearances for him if he stays in New York. His expected batting average was 42 points below his actual average while his expected slugging percentage was 125 points below his actual final number. Simply put, taking Smith's final 2019 line and trying to project that over increased playing time would be a bad process. Smith's skills garner attention in NL-only leagues, but in the reserve rounds. He will make a roster as he is out of minor-league options, but he does not necessarily need to make your roster on draft day.
Even though he's just 23 years old, Smith's window to convince the Mets he can be a productive part of their future is closing. As a first baseman in the National League, DH isn't an option, nor is changing positions in Smith's case. His plate skills continue to be the issue as last season's 32% strikeout rate in tandem with a paltry 2.7% walk rate won't get it done, even in today's whiff-forgiving landscape. Smith's aggressive approach hinders his ability to get to his power -- he chases at an above-average rate. He even struggled at Triple-A Las Vegas, posting a .708 OPS in one of the best hitting venues in the offense-happy Pacific Coast League. Even in the unlikely event Smith has a strong spring and breaks camp with the starting role, he's unlikely to hold it with slugger Peter Alonso knocking at the door.
A number of prospects enjoyed success right away upon arrival to the big leagues last season, but Smith was not among them. He posted just a 73 wRC+ in 49 games, although he was pretty unlucky on balls in play (.218 BABIP). The power was the one positive, which is surprising given that Smith has long been thought of as a hit-over-power first baseman. However, he did steadily increase his home-run totals on the farm in recent years, and is still just 22 years old, so perhaps that per-game power production wasn't so fluky. While Smith did see a sizable jump in strikeout rate following his promotion to the majors, the minor-league track record suggests he will cut that down with more exposure to big-league arms. Smith isn't guaranteed a major-league roster spot out of camp, as new acquisition Adrian Gonzalez may be given the starting job, but he's still an intriguing player in dynasty settings.
Smith made significant strides in the power department last season, as the sweet-swinging lefty hit 14 home runs and drove in 91 runs in 130 games for Double-A Binghamton, both career highs. Smith has always possessed the ability to hit for average, and he batted over .300 for the second consecutive season. The Mets used James Loney as a stopgap option last season, which is fitting given that's the comparison that has been used with Smith throughout his time in the minors. Nevertheless, if Lucas Duda continues to battle back problems, Smith could see the big leagues as soon as this upcoming season. He will likely head to Triple-A to start the year to continue working on his power stroke.
With Steven Matz set to officially graduate from prospect status, Smith is primed to become the class of the Mets' farm system. Drafted 11th overall out of high school in 2011, Smith made the jump to High-A St. Lucie to begin 2015. The results were generally excellent for a 20-year-old as Smith raked against both left- and right-handed pitching, though he displayed mostly gap power from the left side with a Florida State League-leading 33 doubles. Smith does not have as stocky a 6-foot frame as say Kyle Schwarber, but he makes consistent contact, and more of those hits are going to start leaving the yard as Smith continues to mature and especially when he reaches the launching pad at Triple-A Las Vegas. He probably won't reach the majors until 2017, but Smith should be a popular target in long-term keeper formats.
First base prospects that sign for $2.6 million out of high school are typically worth monitoring, and Smith is no different, although his 2014 numbers may not back that up. If one ignores the fact that he is a first baseman, a .271 average with a .344 OBP in a full season at Low-A looks pretty good for someone who turned 19 this past summer. But the fact that he hit just one home run in 518 plate appearances signals that the power may always be below average relative to Smith’s position. The 26 doubles he hit give hope for an eventual 10-20 home run season in the minor leagues, especially if he can add more muscle to his six-foot, 185-pound frame. However, he is still at least a couple years away from the big leagues, and projects as more James Loney than Prince Fielder, meaning he is only worth holding in deeper formats.
Smith, selected 11th overall out of high school by the Mets in the 2013 draft, has a sweet left-handed stroke with surprising power and a good eye at the plate, along with a solid glove at first base. He hit .287/.384/.407 along with three homers and 22 RBI in 167 at-bats for the Gulf Coast League Mets, turning it on after a slow start. Smith could open 2014 at Low-A Savannah and is as a top-five prospect in the Mets' system. With a gaping hole at first base, Smith could be fast-tracked to the majors, reaching New York as early as 2016.
More Fantasy News
Non-tendered by Mets
1BFree Agent
November 18, 2022
Smith was non-tendered by the Mets and became a free agent Friday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports
ANALYSIS
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Activated from IL, sent down
1BNew York Mets
August 11, 2022
Smith (ankle) was activated from the 10-day injured list Thursday and was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, Tim Healey of Newsday reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rehab assignment begins Thursday
1BNew York Mets
Ankle
August 4, 2022
Smith (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing rehab assignment
1BNew York Mets
Ankle
July 29, 2022
Smith (ankle) could begin a rehab assignment during the Mets' current road trip that lasts through Wednesday, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
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Hits IL with ankle sprain
1BNew York Mets
Ankle
July 21, 2022
The Mets placed Smith on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
ANALYSIS
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