Dylan Carlson

Dylan Carlson

24-Year-Old OutfielderOF
St. Louis Cardinals
10-Day IL
Injury Ankle
Est. Return 6/5/2023
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Carlson's own manager was driving the hype train last spring, predicting big things for a player he envisioned as his leadoff man. That train went off the rails in a hurry as Carlson mostly struggled before landing on the injured list in May with a hamstring strain. A thumb sprain put him back on the shelf in September and the outfielder couldn't really get going in between. In the end, Carlson slashed .236/.316/.380 across 488 plate appearances. After popping 18 home runs in 2021, Carlson managed eight long balls last season to go along with five steals in seven attempts. If there's a silver lining it's that Carlson trimmed his strikeout rate five percentage points to 19.3%. Keep in mind too that Carlson is still only 24 years old and will be for the entirely of the 2023 season. While far too young to give up on, the switch hitter had dramatic platoon splits and the Cardinals may be forced dial back his playing time slightly if his struggles against lefties continue. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#398
ADP
$Signed a one-year, $742,400 contract with the Cardinals in March of 2023.
Hitting from both sides of plate
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 29, 2023
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Monday that Carlson (ankle) is taking batting practice from both the left and right side of the plate and has resumed a running program, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
The switch-hitting Carlson had previously been limited to batting only from the right side in recent days while he manages a left ankle sprain, but he no longer looks to be inhibited while performing full baseball activities. Carlson will likely increase the intensity of his running program over the next few days before potentially heading out on a minor-league rehab assignment later this week. Once he gets a few minor-league games under his belt and is cleared to return from the 10-day injured list, Carlson should settle back into a regular role in center field, which would likely result in Lars Nootbaar moving back to a corner outfield spot and one of Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson losing out on a near-everyday gig.
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Batting Stats
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2023
2022
2021
2020
2023 MLB Game Log
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2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
1
6
8
1
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
3
4
2
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+21%
OPS vs LHP
2023
 
 
+34%
OPS vs RHP
2022
 
 
+33%
OPS vs LHP
2021
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021vs Left .837 319 47 8 36 3 .309 .368 .469
Since 2021vs Right .694 896 100 20 83 5 .229 .311 .383
2023vs Left .518 40 4 0 2 1 .216 .275 .243
2023vs Right .692 68 8 2 10 0 .238 .279 .413
2022vs Left .845 141 21 3 15 2 .305 .369 .477
2022vs Right .633 347 35 5 27 3 .207 .294 .339
2021vs Left .923 138 22 5 19 0 .341 .394 .528
2021vs Right .739 481 57 13 46 2 .243 .328 .411
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2021
 
 
+20%
OPS at Home
2023
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
2022
 
 
+22%
OPS at Home
2021
 
 
+18%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2021Home .800 581 79 16 70 5 .276 .346 .454
Since 2021Away .669 634 68 12 49 3 .227 .308 .361
2023Home .677 57 8 2 9 1 .226 .281 .396
2023Away .572 51 4 0 3 0 .234 .275 .298
2022Home .771 230 31 5 26 3 .249 .339 .431
2022Away .631 258 25 3 16 2 .226 .295 .336
2021Home .847 294 40 9 35 1 .306 .364 .483
2021Away .718 325 39 9 30 1 .227 .324 .394
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Dylan Carlson compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Expected BA
    Expected Batting Average.
  • Expected SLG
    Expected Slugging Percentage.
  • Sprint Speed
    The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
  • Ground Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
  • Line Drive %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
  • Fly Ball %
    The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.
BB/K
0.27
 
BB Rate
5.6%
 
K Rate
20.4%
 
BABIP
.273
 
ISO
.120
 
AVG
.230
 
OBP
.278
 
SLG
.350
 
OPS
.628
 
wOBA
.278
 
Exit Velocity
90.4 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
30.4%
 
Barrels/PA
6.5%
 
Expected BA
.258
 
Expected SLG
.415
 
Sprint Speed
23.8 ft/sec
 
Ground Ball %
47.4%
 
Line Drive %
17.9%
 
Fly Ball %
34.6%
 
Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Dylan Carlson See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
Many prospects cruising through Double A and Triple A when they're 20 years old are overmatched in the majors if they debut the next season. Such was the case for Carlson in 2020 before he picked things up down the stretch. Carlson's follow-up was much better as he demonstrated many of the skills earning him top prospect status. Specifically, Carlson improved his plate discipline by walking more and fanning less. His overall average exit velocity was only 29th percentile, but it was closer to league average on flyballs, supporting power. A low exit velocity on grounders combined with 73rd percentile sprint speed and a little good fortune yielded a .250 BABIP on groundballs, 11 points above average. It all added up to a 113 wRC+, impressive for a 22-year-old. Carlson has 25-15 upside, just temper expectations this season. Pay for moderate growth, likely from continued improvement with his plate discipline.
The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. He eventually got the call in mid-August when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. He struggled and was demoted in early September. While it's damning with faint praise, Carlson was the Cardinals' best hitter after getting recalled Sept. 18. Including three playoff games, he hit .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 PA. Strikeouts were still an issue over that stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game. He should open the year with a prime lineup spot and everyday role.
In just one season, Carlson went from an interesting sleeper in the Cardinals' system to a top-10 prospect in all of baseball, and he is now knocking on the door of the majors. He was the second-youngest player and second-best hitter (142 wRC+) in the Texas League, and his 10.8 BB% and 20.3 K% are marks we would expect from a player several years older. Carlson's 33.3 Oppo% and 25.9 LD% on that circuit were also elite marks and his above-average speed led to 18 steals on 25 attempts. The switch hitter posted the best statistics of his career in 18 games at Triple-A, but there was obviously a lot of noise in those numbers. Carlson has a chance to be a plus contributor in all five roto categories, but it's his high floor that makes him so appealing in dynasty and redraft leagues. Regardless of who the Cardinals open the year with in the outfield, Carlson should force the issue sometime in the first half.
More Fantasy News
Takes batting practice
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 24, 2023
Carlson (ankle) took batting practice from the right side of the plate Wednesday, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing swinging workouts
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 23, 2023
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Tuesday that Carlson (ankle) will start swinging the bat later this week, John Denton of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Officially placed on IL
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 17, 2023
St. Louis placed Carlson on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a left ankle sprain.
ANALYSIS
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Likely headed to injured list
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 17, 2023
Carlson (ankle) is likely to be placed on the injured list, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
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Sitting with ankle sprain
OFSt. Louis Cardinals
Ankle
May 16, 2023
Carlson (ankle) is not in the lineup Tuesday against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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