Erik Swanson

Swanson emerged as one of the league's best setup men, compiling a 1.68 ERA (2.15 SIERA), 0.91 WHIP and 70:10 K:BB ratio over 53.2 innings. The right-hander improved his strikeout rate by nearly 10 percent and he finished fifth among qualfied relievers with a 29.5% K-BB%. Swanson's fastball-splitter combination was devastating to opposing hitters, as his 73.6% in-zone contact percentage was 4th-best among relief pitchers despite losing 1.1 mph on his 4-seamer (93.6 mph). The contact he did give up wasn't hard, as his 85 mph average exit velocity was a 98th percentile ranking. Swanson's high-leverage role is secure in Toronto, who thought enough of the reliever to trade Teoscar Hernandez for his services. While his path to saves is just as cloudy as it was in Seattle, he's still worth drafting in deeper mixed and AL-only leagues for ratio stability.

Swanson made his big-league debut in 2019 and has since appeared in 36 games, including eight starts. The results have been poor, as he's surrendered a 6.58 ERA due in large part to a 2.7 HR/9. As implied by each of those numbers, hitters have not had a difficult time squaring up Swanson's offerings as he's surrendered a 12.8% barrel late, which has led to a .539 xSLG. In order for things to improve, Swanson will need to diversify his arsenal and trust more in his secondary pitches. In 2020, he threw his fastball 74.5% of the time, and a similar 67.7% rate in 2019. Despite working through the Yankees' and Mariners' minor-league systems primarily as a starter, it's difficult to foresee him getting another extended chance in the rotation until he expands his arsenal and his results improve. Heading into his age-27 season, those things appear unlikely to occur.

Among the three prospects acquired from the Yankees for James Paxton, Swanson played the largest role for Seattle in 2019, tossing 58 innings over 27 appearances. The right-hander scuffled in eight starts, compiling a 7.56 ERA and .277 BAA, but fared much better as a reliever, posting a .191 BAA and a respectable 3.28 ERA in 19 outings. Armed with a three-pitch arsenal centered around a 93-mph fastball, Swanson demonstrated solid strikeout ability throughout his minor-league career and translated that to a decent 21.2 K% in the majors. He also excelled at limiting walks, posting a 4.9 BB% that ranked in the top 10% among pitchers who threw 50-plus innings. Swanson's primary struggle was keeping the ball in the park; he gave up a 2.6 HR/9, fifth-worst in the league. Spring training will be important for Swanson in 2020 as he could conceivably emerge as a starter or reliever or head back to the minors.

Acquired from New York in the James Paxton trade, Swanson will likely use a lot of his bullets at the big-league level this upcoming season. He split his 2018 between the Yankees' Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, throwing 42.2 innings with Trenton and 72.1 frames with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The right-hander fared well at the highest level of the minor leagues, posting a 22.0 K-BB% and just a 17.9% line-drive rate. The numbers are less impressive when considering he was 24 years old, but the point is that he passed that last test and appears ready to graduate. Swanson is mostly a two-pitch guy (fastball/slider) and long term he may be better off as a multi-inning reliever, but it would make sense for the rebuilding Mariners to give him a chance to start in 2019. They will need rotation reinforcements when injuries inevitably hit.