Hagen Smith

ANALYSIS
Smith struck out 48.6 percent of the batters he faced as a junior for Arkansas, separating himself as the best lefty in the class and the pitcher with the highest ceiling in the draft. He had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore in high school, so if he ends up needing a second such procedure, it could come earlier in his career than it does for most pitchers who get a second TJS. Smith entered his junior year with questionable control after walking 13.5 percent of batters as a sophomore and 13.3 percent of batters as a freshman. The 6-foot-3, 225-pound southpaw cut his walk rate to 10.3 percent as a junior, which is still higher than we'd like to see from a premium college pitching prospect. Smith's stuff is so good that many evaluators are willing to look past his questionable command projection. His fastball has been up to 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s, while his mid-80s sweeper is at least a plus pitch and plays up even more due to Smith's deceptive crossfire delivery. He had a 17-strikeout performance against Oregon State on his 2024 resume that required just 78 pitches and qualifies as one of the best outings from any college starter in recent memory. There's bullpen risk with Smith, and we should get a good idea pretty early on in his pro career if he has the accuracy to project as a frontline starter.