Jeimer Candelario

31-Year-Old First Baseman1B

Cincinnati Reds

2024 Stats

AVG

.225

RBI

2025 Projections

AVG

RBI

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Candelario's first season with Cincinnati was a letdown after he inked a three-year, $42 million contract in December of 2023. He played through various injuries throughout the first half, including elbow, shin and hamstring issues, before a fractured left great toe ended his season in August. The Candy Man deserves credit for taking advantage of his new digs, hitting 15 homers at home to reach 20 for the season in 463 total plate appearances. That is about where the fun ends since his rate numbers crashed across the board. A career-low walk rate suggests he might have been pressing in Year 1 of a new deal, and the injuries likely played a part. There may still be power upside here and he is eligible at first base and third base entering his age-31 season. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

Dynasty

#297

ADP

League Majors

Bats B

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'1"

Weight 221

DOB 11/24/1993

Born New York, NY

College None

Drafted 2010 CHC

Getting shot at third base

1BCincinnati Reds

February 18, 2025

Cincinnati manager Terry Francona said Tuesday that he wants to give Candelario a shot to start at third base, because it sets the team up better, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
Candelario will be one of several players who will see time at the hot corner during spring training. In addition to Candelario, the group includes Gavin Lux, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte. Prospect Cam Collier will also be in the mix. Candelario added weight during the offseason, but he said it's redistributed and wants to add another five pounds to help get him through the regular season. He missed the final month-and-a-half of the 2024 season due to a toe injury and appeared in 112 games overall during the campaign.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+2%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+12%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+3%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+10%

OPS vs LHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.713	430	48	15	54	1	.235	.307	.406
Since 2022vs Right	.725	1075	125	40	122	11	.231	.295	.430
2024vs Left	.652	147	13	3	10	0	.215	.306	.346
2024vs Right	.730	316	34	17	46	4	.229	.266	.465
2023vs Left	.792	161	23	6	20	1	.254	.342	.451
2023vs Right	.813	414	54	16	50	7	.251	.333	.479
2022vs Left	.680	122	12	6	24	0	.235	.262	.417
2022vs Right	.616	345	37	7	26	0	.210	.275	.341
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+3%

OPS at Home

2024

+30%

OPS at Home

2023

+4%

OPS on Road

2022

+13%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.732	760	93	26	85	4	.227	.308	.424
Since 2022Away	.711	745	80	29	91	8	.237	.289	.422
2024Home	.796	244	30	15	29	1	.221	.303	.493
2024Away	.613	219	17	5	27	3	.229	.251	.362
2023Home	.791	285	38	7	30	3	.250	.344	.448
2023Away	.822	290	39	15	40	5	.253	.328	.494
2022Home	.594	231	25	4	26	0	.206	.268	.325
2022Away	.671	236	24	9	24	0	.227	.275	.395
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Stat Review

How does Jeimer Candelario compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.24

BB Rate

5.8%

K Rate

24.6%

BABIP

.257

ISO

.204

AVG

.225

OBP

.279

SLG

.429

OPS

.707

wOBA

.308

Exit Velocity

86.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

28.5%

Barrels/PA

5.6%

Expected BA

.221

Expected SLG

.364

Sprint Speed

22.9 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

41.5%

Line Drive %

18.4%

Fly Ball %

40.2%

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

Candelario has always packed latent power, but Comerica Park kept most of his fly balls in the yard. Last season, he signed with Washington and homers ensued, buoyed by power-friendly Nationals Park and Wrigley Field in the summertime. Before he was traded to the Cubs, Candelario clubbed 16 homers, fueling a .258/.342/.481 line. He fell a bit after, posting a .234/.318/.445 line, but added six more homers to set a new career high. Candelario's .471 slugging mark was the second highest of his career, only bettered by .503 in the pandemic season. His strikeout and walk rate have been in the same range for many years, with no sign of changing this year. Candelario's BABIP has been all over the place, ranging from .257 to .333 over the past six seasons, omitting the .372 mark recorded in the shortened 2020 season. He finds himself in his best home park to date after signing a three-year, $45 million deal with the Reds. His dual eligibility makes for a decent late cornerman, and while he may get more days off than a true everyday player, the switch hitter should be in the middle of the lineup most days and is a must-play at home.

Like a lot of Detroit hitters, Candelario mostly struggled in 2022. He batted just .159 in April and .210 in May, and while he was a bit better later in the year, Candelario never really got going, finishing with a .217 average. His playing time was trimmed a bit as a result, as he went from 149 games played in 2021 to 124 in 2022. Candelario's OPS dipped precipitously as well, falling from .794 to .633. The new Tigers regime non-tendered him, but he landed on his feet with a one-year, $5 million deal in Washington, where he could play every day. He has at least shown that he's a solid if not spectacular big leaguer, batting .271 or better in 2020 and 2021. He also hit 16 home runs and tallied 67 RBI during that 2021 campaign, and now Candelario goes from the worst park for home runs in the league per Statcast's park factors (Detroit) to the 11th best park (Washington).

Candelario had been all over the map heading into the 2021 season. He had just one full season under his belt, and struggled through it despite 19 homers and 78 runs scored. He showed a surprising bat in the 2020 season, but got off to a slow start in 2021 and had just five homers, 24 RBI and a .262 average to show for his efforts at the break. The Tigers stuck with him, and Candelario rewarded them with 11 second-half homers with 43 RBI and a .282 average while reducing his strikeout rate five percentage points. While 2021 was ultimately a happy medium statistically between his surprising 2020 season and his 2018 campaign, last year's second half shows there there could be more upside here. The playing time is all but guaranteed for him as long as he is able to avoid injuries. Beware that strong second half is pushing up his draft cost this winter. Candelario reaching the 20-homer plateau for the first time does seem like a safe bet.

Candelario has teased us in the past with flashes for the Tigers. We're ready to be hurt again. The improvement he showed in 2020 was extraordinary; Candelario hit just a shade under .300, up nearly 100 points from 2019, with 21 extra-base hits over 206 PA. In total, his offensive contributions added up to a 137 wRC+. Statcast says he overachieved by 20 points in the BA department, which makes sense given his BABIP was .372, though in fairness to Candelario he was in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate, so a lot of those base hits were deserved. He's routinely sat around a 25% strikeout rate and improved upon that mark in 2020 even while adding power. His supporting cast is not good, but the team context means Candelario should have an ultra-secure role. Throw in dual eligibility (1B and 3B) in leagues with a 10-game minimum and Candelario looks like a nice corner-infield pick with upside.

Candelario opened 2019 as the Tigers' third baseman, often entrusted at leadoff. He failed to take advantage and was sent to Triple-A Toledo after posting a .192/.285/.288 line through 28 games. Candelario righted the ship and was recalled in late May. This pattern continued throughout the season. Candelario would struggle with the Tigers and sent down to the Mudhens where he'd rake -- lather, rinse, repeat. To be fair, Candelario's .203 average was a bit lower than his .229 xBA, but even the expected mark is poor; he's overmatched by MLB pitching. Candelario makes frequent contact on four-seamers, but it's weak, with the lowest average exit velocity of all pitches. His strikeout rate on curves, sliders and cutters was 42%. The Tigers will give Candelario the chance to break camp at first base, but unless he learns to square up heat and improve contact on movement, he will be on a Quad-A path.

Defense gets prospects to the major leagues while offense keeps them there. Candelario had a strong sophomore season defensively after barely losing his rookie status in 2017. The counting stats show mostly a repeat of his efforts at Triple-A, as he has been working on getting more loft to his swing over the past two seasons. He has improved a 1.5 groundball-to-flyball ratio down to around 1:1. That said, his pull tendencies (46.6%), high strikeout rate (25.8%) and below-average speed led to batting average challenges. It is tough to have a sub-.225 average with an 11% walk rate, but Candelario pulled it off last season. His switch-hitting abilities are rather lopsided as he is 15% below the league average for his career against righties while being 30% above league average against lefties. The batting average struggles will continue as long as his splits remain that stark.

Blocked by Kris Bryant during his time as a member of the Cubs, Candelario's path to become a big-league regular improved following a midseason trade to the Tigers. After the trade, Candelario spent his first month in his new organization at Triple-A, but he has little left to prove at that level with a career .292/.373/.507 line and 24 homers in 767 plate appearances over two seasons. At age 24, he should get a chance to hold down the everyday job at third base for Detroit, thanks to his steady glove, and the ability to switch-hit, which makes him less susceptible to falling into a platoon. Candelario has shown a discerning eye at the plate in the upper levels of the minors, and that skill has held up during his limited exposure to major-league pitching. At this stage, he looks like a good hitter with developing power, making him an intriguing corner-infield option now that he has a chance to play regularly.

Candelario took a step back at the plate at the Double-A level in 2016, whiffing at an increased clip and seeing his OPS drop from .841 in the second half of 2015 to .690 at the start of 2016. He was promoted anyway to Triple-A Iowa, where he saw a significant spike across the board in his overall offensive performance in the hitter-friendly environments of the Pacific Coast League. A brief five-game taste of the big leagues in early July answers little about his ability to handle big league pitching, and the greater obstacle for Candelario is that he's currently behind Kris Bryant on the organizational depth chart. A path to regular playing time in the majors may require a deal to another organization, and his advanced eye at the plate (12.3 percent walk rate at Triple-A, 17.2 percent strikeout rate) will help fuel interest from other clubs. Assuming that he remains with the Cubs, the switch-hitting Candelario will likely return to Iowa to begin 2017.

More Fantasy News

Could be done for season

1BCincinnati Reds

Toe

September 15, 2024

Candelario (toe) is unlikely to return and finish the season, MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
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Yet to resume baseball activities

1BCincinnati Reds

Toe

September 5, 2024

Candelario (toe) has yet to resume baseball activities, MLB.com reports.

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Still feeling discomfort

1BCincinnati Reds

Toe

August 27, 2024

Reds manager David Bell said Tuesday that Candelario is still feeling pain in his fractured left great toe, Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

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Goes on IL with fractured toe

1BCincinnati Reds

Toe

August 20, 2024

The Reds placed Candelario on the 10-day injured list Tuesday with a fractured left great toe.

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Reaches 20-homer mark

1BCincinnati Reds

August 17, 2024

Candelario went 2-for-4 with a solo home run in a loss to the Royals on Saturday.

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Consideration for Mariners

1BFree Agent

November 22, 2023

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Mariners may push to sign Candelario in free agency.

ANALYSIS
Seattle has an opening now at third base after trading Eugenio Suarez to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday in exchange for Seby Zavala and Carlos Vargas. Recent acquisition Luis Urias could be an option to fill that role, but he slashed just .194/.337/.299 across 177 plate appearances for the Brewers and Red Sox in 2023. Candelario, meanwhile, is coming off a steady .807 OPS with 22 homers and 39 doubles in 140 games between the Nationals and Cubs. The 29-year-old has also been linked to the Yankees, Blue Jays, Pirates, Reds and Angels.

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