Jesse Winker

29-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Milwaukee Brewers

10-Day IL

Injury Neck

Est. Return 6/10/2023

2023 Stats

AVG

.204

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2023 Fantasy Outlook

Winker finally eclipsed the 500 plate appearance plateau in 2022, but he did so playing through back and leg troubles which impacted his overall numbers. Winker had reportedly disenfrachised some teammates throughout the process of the season with some of his actions with how he approached the game. It came as no surprise when Seattle sent him to Milwaukee for Kolten Wong in November. Winker has the opportunity for a fresh start in Milwaukee as he looks to re-establish his fantasy value as a disciplined hitter who limits self-inflicted damage at the plate. His Hard Hit Rate plummeted last year from the top 20th percentile in previous seasons to the bottom 20th percentile as he played through the aforementioned injuries, so the conditions are favorable for him to once again pursue a 20+ homer season. Milwaukee can, and should, use him as the regular DH to both keep him healthy and keep his terrible defensive abilities off the field as much as possible. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#249

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats L

Throws L

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 215

DOB 8/17/1993

Born Buffalo, NY

College None

Drafted 2012 CIN

Cleared for rehab assignment

OFMilwaukee Brewers

Neck

June 5, 2023

Winker (neck) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.

ANALYSIS
Winker underwent neck surgery over the offseason and just over a week ago went on the injured list with a cervical strain. However, he's evidently feeling well enough to test things out in game action. Given his relatively brief period of down time, Winker shouldn't need many rehab contests before being activated.

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Batting Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2021

+18%

OPS vs RHP

2023

+18%

OPS vs LHP

2022

+22%

OPS vs LHP

2021

+87%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021vs Left	.690	268	28	9	35	0	.213	.325	.365
Since 2021vs Right	.813	891	111	29	102	1	.267	.373	.440
2023vs Left	.633	10	1	0	0	0	.222	.300	.333
2023vs Right	.538	117	10	0	13	0	.202	.316	.222
2022vs Left	.794	140	14	6	20	0	.244	.357	.437
2022vs Right	.651	407	37	8	33	0	.211	.339	.312
2021vs Left	.572	118	13	3	15	0	.176	.288	.284
2021vs Right	1.070	367	64	21	56	1	.346	.428	.642
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Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2021

+8%

OPS on Road

2023

+69%

OPS on Road

2022

+18%

OPS on Road

2021

+6%

OPS at Home

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2021Home	.752	544	69	17	60	1	.233	.351	.401
Since 2021Away	.812	615	70	21	77	0	.273	.371	.441
2023Home	.422	73	7	0	5	0	.129	.260	.161
2023Away	.715	54	4	0	8	0	.304	.389	.326
2022Home	.625	236	22	4	19	0	.203	.331	.294
2022Away	.736	311	29	10	34	0	.232	.354	.382
2021Home	.980	235	40	13	36	1	.295	.400	.580
2021Away	.922	250	37	11	35	0	.314	.388	.534
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Stat Review

How does Jesse Winker compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.48

BB Rate

11.8%

K Rate

24.4%

BABIP

.282

ISO

.028

AVG

.204

OBP

.315

SLG

.231

OPS

.546

wOBA

.262

Exit Velocity

86.7 mph

Hard Hit Rate

33.3%

Barrels/PA

1.6%

Expected BA

.193

Expected SLG

.258

Sprint Speed

18.6 ft/sec

Ground Ball %

39.7%

Line Drive %

25.6%

Fly Ball %

34.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Jesse Winker Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

When healthy, Winker enjoyed a breakout 2021 campaign, hitting .305/.394/.556 with 24 homers with 77 runs and 71 RBI. Alas, "when healthy" remains a critical phrase. Winker was limited to 110 games, and missed all but two of the last 46 games with an intercostal strain. It's not a coincidence the Reds went 21-25 over that stretch, despite a very friendly schedule over those last two months. Unfortunately, health issues are a feature with Winker, as he's never played more than 113 games in a season. When Winker is in the game he has two noteworthy flaws - a lack of speed and trouble hitting lefties. Even last year when he hit over .300, Winker still hit just .176/.288/.284 against southpaws, and he'll now lose the advantage of hitting at Great American Ball Park for half the year after being traded to the Mariners, and he'll instead be at the more pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. One of these years Winker will defy the odds and play a full season, but do you feel confident that 2022 will be that year?

There is one signifcant difference between Winker's previous productive numbers and his 2020 season - he started producing against left-handers this time, too. As true with any other 2020 line, small sample caveats apply, but Winker hit .290/.421/.548 against southpaws in 38 plate appearances. The Reds were forced to give him the chance, following Nick Senzel's multiple absences and the breakdown of other right-handed bats in the lineup. If the overall line from Winker encourages the Reds to play him more frequently against lefties, it gives him a chance to provide useful fantasy counting stats and not just good rate stats. Before drafting Winker, make sure you are aware of your league's position requirements - he played 16 games in the outfield and 37 at DH. That's good enough for OF-eligibility in the NFBC, but in other traditional formats that require 20 games per position, he will be a UT-only player.

Winker answered some nagging worries in 2019 but raised others with his campaign. A multi-year shoulder injury sapped his power in the minors and in his first real major-league stint in 2018. After getting it fixed in the offseason, he offered more power in 2019, hitting 16 homers in 338 at-bats before a cervical strain ended his season in August. But that extra power can be somewhat attributed to the lively ball, as many of his homers were to the opposite field and his GB% actually increased to 49.3%. It also came at the cost of his average (.269) and declining BB% (9.9%, compared to 14.7% in 2018). Winker almost never faces lefties and did little with those plate appearances, with no extra-base hits in 50 plate appearances. The nearly-strict platoon limits his upside in standard mixed leagues, as does his lack of stolen bases.

Winker was a bright spot for the Reds in 2018 before a shoulder injury and subsequent surgery curtailed his season in July. It took awhile for him to get regular playing time, and he wasn't great early on, but really hit his stride (along with a number of opposing pitchers' offerings) in the last two months, before he got hurt. He walked more than he struck out in his age-24 season. It is unclear how much of an outlier his .231 ISO in 2017 will end up being, but Winker has long played through shoulder woes, so his underwhelming power figures in the upper levels of the minors do not tell the whole story. While the Reds acquired Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp in an offseason trade, Winker seems like the least likely incumbent outfielder to lose out on significant playing time, given his age and pedigree. Between his on-base skills and likely position in the order, Winker should be a good source of cheap counting stats from a third or fourth outfielder slot.

It was easy to project a power breakout for Winker. He played through a wrist injury in 2016, was repeating Triple-A and his size and approach suggested he could unlock more thump. Then he hit just two home runs in 85 games in the International League. Just when the last passenger jumped off the "Winker could hit for power" bandwagon, he blasted seven bombs after an August 1 callup. In his last 105 MLB at-bats, he hit as many home runs as he did in his previous 708 professional at-bats. Power is impossible to figure out these days. It's easy, however, to see that Winker has a ridiculously advanced approach and hit tool for a player his age, at least against righties. He has not shown an ability to do damage against lefties in the upper levels, and the Reds have two readymade platoon options in Adam Duvall and Phillip Ervin. Winker may wrangle an everyday job at some point, but barring a trade, he could be sharing right field duty to start the year.

Although Winker's prospect luster has faded a bit, his advanced approach gives him a relatively high floor, and he's now knocking at the door for the rebuilding Reds. Scott Schebler represents the only real obstacle to playing time in right field. Winker was promoted to Triple-A Louisville in 2016 and finished seventh in the International League with a .397 OBP, walking as many times as he struck out in 448 plate appearances. Now the bad news. Winker totaled just three homers with Louisville as a wrist injury hindered his power stroke, and he hit .260 with a .346 SLG against left-handed pitching. While he was never much of a runner, Winker didn't even attempt a stolen base all year. The International League is tough on power and Winker should see the power tick up some with improved health and especially when he gets to Great American Ball Park, but it will need to tick up considerably for him to maintain 2017 relevance outside of NL-only leagues.

In a way, Winker is a bit of a poor man's Joey Votto - his strongest offensive skill is his ability to get on-base, as he's never had a walk rate below 13 percent in his professional career. Going along with that, there's a concern that Winker isn't hitting for enough power yet, slugging just .433 last year at Double-A Pensacola. He really struggled over the first half of the season, but a strong finish (he hit .344/.457/.560 from August 1 to the end of the season) salvaged his overall numbers. The Reds will probably wait until June or July to call him up due to service time considerations, but Winker will be in Cincinnati at some point in 2016, barring injury.

The Reds' 2012 draft is looking better each year. Not only did first-round pick Nick Travieso take a big step in 2014, so did Winker before a wrist injury at Double-A derailed his season. But he rallied in the Arizona Fall League to win the batting title there, hitting .338/.440/.559. The big question for the Reds is how soon they believe Winker will be ready for the big leagues. They had a pretty big hole in left field last season, and had a really hard time getting good on-base guys. Winker managed only 21 games at Double-A Pensacola last year before getting hurt, so chances are he could begin 2015 at that level but then get promoted aggressively if he starts off well.

The Reds' farm system lacks high-impact offensive players, but Winker demonstrated quite a bit of promise at Low-A Dayton in 2013, showing both power (his 16 homers were in the league's top-10 despite Dayton being a tough park to hit in) and patience (13% walk rate, 82% contact rate). Don't be surprised if the 2012 first-round supplemental pick out of high school in Florida takes a big leap in High-A in 2014.

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