Joc Pederson

Pederson is a tough player to roster. He only provides some power from the left side of the plate. The steals are just about gone. He's never had a batting average over .250. Over the last two seasons, he's struggled to even get his on-base rate up to .300, and most importantly, there is the platoon issue. In his career, he has an .832 OPS against right-handers and a catcher-like .610 OPS against lefties. He has not had over 514 plate appearances since 2016. One change last year was that he quit pulling the ball as much (47.1% to 35.3%), but that led to a career-low 13.7 HR/FB%, with Pederson not taking advantage of short right-field porches. Also, after he posted a career-low 8.0 BB% in 2020, it didn't rebound this past season. The decline in power and walks might just be the start of the end.

Pederson's one-dimensional skill set and strict platoon role has long hampered his fantasy value, and a drop in both his home-run output and on-base numbers resulted in the left-handed hitter ending last season on the waiver wire in a majority of standard mixed leagues. Pederson continued to hit the ball hard -- his 93.0 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 96th percentile -- but a 9.2-point jump in his groundball rate (to a career-high 51.7%) resulted in fewer balls leaving the park. Once among baseball's most patient batters, Pederson has taken fewer walks in recent campaigns, culminating in a career-low 8.0 BB% and .285 OBP last season. Pederson could get more regular playing time and face more lefties after signing with the Cubs. His power potential is tantalizing, but he needs to show he's more than a platoon player with a limited skill set.

The Dodgers gave Pederson just 162 plate appearances against left-handers over the past three seasons. A trade to the Angels fell through in February, and the Dodgers are saying he will remain with the team, so expect Pederson to remain in a strict platoon role. With the new rules governing pitcher usage, Pederson stands to benefit a little bit as opposing managers will be reluctant to bring in a LOOGY with fewer than two outs. Pederson set a personal best with 36 homers, benefiting from the added-flight ball. His average exit velocity and launch angle were virtually the same as the prior year, but his average flyball distance was up seven feet, in line with the projected 5-to-10 feet of added distance from the reduction in drag. The caution is Pederson stands to suffer if MLB reverts to the 2018 version of the baseball. Assuming more is known about the ball in the spring, Pederson could be a target if it doesn't change, or potentially someone to avoid with the old ball.

Pederson enjoyed an offensive resurgence in 2018 after a disappointing 2017 season. The resurgence came from his power as he re-worked his swing to get more loft in his game. He improved his average launch angle from 10 degrees to 15 degrees year over year, while maintaining an already-solid exit velocity. The Dodgers do a good job of limiting Pederson's exposure to lefties since he has proven he can do little with them. The overall offensive rebound came from Pederson simply repeating what he did in 2016 against righties. The issue for him is that he has yet to put together back-to-back seasons of good production against righties. He has 20 or more home runs in three of the past four seasons against righties, but the .209, .269, .214, and .260 averages the past four seasons push or pull down his fantasy value in standard leagues. In OBP leagues, he still gets it done rather well.

2017 was an up-and-down year for Pederson. The outfielder hit .241/.361/.466 with nine homers in the first half before a .156/.253/.312 start to the second half led to his demotion to Triple-A Oklahoma City in the middle of August. His struggles continued for the remainder of the regular season (at Triple-A and with the Dodgers), and he finished out the second half with a .162/.278/.303 line in 43 games. Pederson turned things around in the postseason, however, hitting .304/.360/.826 with three homers in the final two series after being left off the NLDS roster. Most of his opportunities came against right-handed pitching last season due to his struggles against same-handed pitching, and given the depth that the Dodgers possess in the outfield, it's hard to see that changing in 2018. Still, he's a solid source of power late in drafts and is even more intriguing in leagues where OBP is used in place of batting average.

Plenty of questions awaited Pederson going into 2016, as the young outfielder had walked and homered his way into the 2015 All-Star Game, then struggled mightily in the second half. He acquitted himself well during his 2016 campaign, improving his contact rate from 66.7 percent to 75 percent. The latter figure is still below league average, but the Dodgers will certainly take it when bundled with Pederson's raw power. The improved contact led to fewer walks, but the extra hits made the change a net positive to his on-base percentage, along with improvements to batting average and slugging percentage. The Dodgers limited his exposure to lefties, as 399 of his 476 plate appearances came against right-handers. They could continue to do so in 2017, by platooning him with Trayce Thompson or Enrique Hernandez. Still, Pederson's power still gives him significant value, especially in leagues that use OBP in place of batting average.

A strong spring training both at the plate and in the field elevated Pederson to be the team's Opening Day center fielder, and he quickly rewarded the organization's confidence. Pederson hit .230/.364/.487 with 20 home runs before making the NL All-Star team and battling Todd Frazier in the Home Run Derby finals. From there Pederson hit just .178/.317/.300 with six homers after the break, ultimately losing playing time to Enrique Hernandez late in the season. Pederson has earned some Adam Dunn comparisons for his power as well as his propensity to take a walk (15.7-percent BB rate) and strike out (29.1 percent). He is unlikely to ever hit .300 given the strikeouts, but the power is real and he should show improvement in his sophomore campaign. Pederson should head to camp as the starting center fielder, but given his dismal second half, he's not a lock to keep the job through another prolonged slump.

The Dodgers' outfield depth kept Pederson at Triple-A for the bulk of 2014, even though he seemed ready to contribute at the big league level. Of some concern is that he struck out 26.9% of the time at Albuquerque, but Pederson has a good eye at the plate (100 walks, 18.1% BB%) and the combination of power and speed necessary to become a five-category star. He also showed significant improvement against lefties with the move from Double-A to Triple-A, striking out less against lefties than righties last season and posting a very similar batted ball profile in each split. Reaching the 30-30 plateau for the first time in his professional career at Triple-A, Pederson has nothing left to prove in the minors and should be on track to start in center field for the Dodgers on Opening Day.

Pederson solidified his status as arguably the organization's top position prospect, batting .278/.381/.497 for Double-A Chattanooga. That line included 22 home runs and 31 stolen bases to go with 70 walks. Pederson was considered for a 2013 callup at times, but his big league debut will instead likely come in 2014. The Dodgers have a crowded outfield, but Pederson's ability to play center field should get him a look at some point this season, a timetable that could move up if the front office finds a taker for one of the team's high-priced veterans currently on the roster.

Pederson was named the organization's 2012 minor league player of the year, as he broke out with a .313/.396/.516 performance for High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Pederson homered 18 times and stole 26 bases all while playing the entire year at age 20. The true test will come this year as Pederson makes the jump out of a hitter-friendly environment to Double-A where the pitching will be far more advanced. How he handles himself at the plate in 2013 will go a long way toward determining how we think about him long term, but 2012 was a step in the right direction.