Jon Gray

Jon Gray

33-Year-Old PitcherSP
Texas Rangers
60-Day IL
Injury Wrist
Est. Return 5/30/2025
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Gray was limited to 23 appearances in 2024 due to groin and foot injuries, with that workload being the lowest since his rookie campaign for full-length seasons. The right-hander's average fastball velocity dropped nearly a full tick to 94.9 mph, with a 19.6 percent strikeout rate being the first time in his career it dipped below 20 percent in a full season. A 4.47 ERA doesn't seem so bad given those concerns, but they're notable developments for a pitcher that's posted an ERA below 4.00 just three times in 10 MLB seasons (and just once in the past five years). That doesn't mean everything since he spent his first seven years in Colorado, but he hasn't taken the steps forward that were expected while no longer having Coors Field as his home park. Gray could be a difference maker if he can put it all together in 2025, but that doesn't seem overly likely given his in consistent track record. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season
From Preseason
#419
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Rangers in November of 2021.
Heads to 60-day injured list
PTexas Rangers
Wrist
March 18, 2025
The Rangers placed Gray (wrist) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
The transaction frees up a spot on the 40-man roster for the addition of Patrick Corbin, who was inked to a one-year contract Tuesday. Gray now won't be eligible to make his season debut until late May as he recovers from a fractured right wrist.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2023
 
 
-5%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .263 552 107 58 128 16 4 21
Since 2023vs Right .254 543 121 24 128 17 1 12
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .284 218 38 23 55 10 3 7
2024vs Right .243 221 48 5 52 7 1 4
2023vs Left .250 334 69 35 73 6 1 14
2023vs Right .262 322 73 19 76 10 0 8
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-32%
ERA at Home
2023
 
 
-28%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 4.34 1.35 141.0 7 7 0 7.7 3.0 1.3
Since 2023Away 4.16 1.24 119.0 7 7 0 8.2 2.6 0.9
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 3.77 1.23 62.0 4 3 0 7.3 2.3 1.0
2024Away 5.53 1.45 40.2 1 3 0 8.0 2.7 0.9
2023Home 4.78 1.44 79.0 3 4 0 8.0 3.5 1.6
2023Away 3.45 1.14 78.1 6 4 0 8.3 2.6 0.9
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Jon Gray See More
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13 days ago
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18 days ago
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
Following a complete game, 12-strikeout effort on June 7, Gray was sitting on a 2.32 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 63:20 K:BB over 73.2 frames across his first 12 starts. His next outing was skipped due to a blister and that kicked off a 17-start run which saw him hold a 5.70 ERA. Gray did rebound with some fine relief work in the postseason, but he has yet to put things altogether as many hoped he'd be able to once he left Colorado. The righty's biggest problem seems to be that his fastball has always been way too hittable. It earned a negative-20 Run Value per Baseball Savant, which was the fourth-worst grade of any pitch in baseball and especially damaging because it's Gray's most-used offering. Meanwhile, his slider has consistently earned high grades and should probably be thrown more often. Gray will benefit from the Rangers' offense backing him and it still feels like he might have another level. You shouldn't draft him expecting it, though.
Gray's tenure with the Rangers began inauspiciously enough. He hit the injured list with a blister after his first start and was forced to the IL a second time in April with an MCL sprain in his left knee. The right-hander went on to miss more than a month in the second half with an oblique strain. Around those injuries, Gray was quite good, pitching to a 3.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 18.2 K-BB% across 24 starts. Gray gets a lot of whiffs with his slider and the best may still be yet to come with him now that he's out of Colorado. The stop-and-start nature of his 2022 campaign could make Gray a nice value at the draft table. He tends to get lost in the shuffle, but this is a quality arm.
An often tantalizing thought, Gray leaving Coors Field has finally come to fruition as he signed a four-year, $56 million contract with the Rangers in November. Gray posted a serviceable 4.54 ERA with roughly a strikeout per inning at altitude during his career with the Rockies and now will pitch his home games in a much more pitcher-friendly environment at Globe Life Field. Gray's velocity peaked in July of 2021, but he picked up an injury and wasn't the same thereafter. There would seem to be some potential upside in his new home as Gray has a fine fastball/slider combination. The right-hander is worth a look outside the top 200 in drafts now that he's shed the purple and black, but it's still best to view him as a streamer until further notice.
Gray's ERA estimators had been quite consistent over the past five seasons, but he took a significant step back over a smaller sample in 2020 with a 5.68 xFIP and 5.58 SIERA. He missed the final month of the season due to right shoulder inflammation, and the injury could have helped contribute to some of his struggles. His hard-hit rate has crept up over the past two seasons, and he had 42.4% of his batted balls hit above 95 mph in 2020, which is especially concerning at Coors Field. His strikeout rate also plummeted to a career-worst 12.6 K%, the first time the mark fell below 20%. Gray had been slightly better at home than he had been on the road recently, but he struggled mightily in the altitude in 2020, posting an 8.39 ERA at home versus a 3.77 ERA on the road. His injury and a smaller sample inflated his numbers in 2020, but the 29-year-old is a much riskier fantasy option than he's been in the past.
Depending on what ERA estimator you favor, Gray has either been the same guy the past several years or the same guy with 2019 being a slight step backwards. Over his five-year career, Gray's xFIP has ranged from 3.45-3.89 while his SIERA has been 3.68-4.35. In both instances, the highest mark was last season, despite Gray's actual 3.89 ERA. Thus is the variability of ERA, especially in Coors Field. The three major accessible estimators -- FIP, xFIP and SIERA -- peg Gray's expected career ERA at 3.77, 3.62, 3.97. In context, Gray is a true-talent 3.30 guy saddled with working half his games at altitude. Aside from the variability, Gray's durability is a concern with just one season of 30 starts. The temptation is to draft him for strikeouts and stream on the road, but Gray's home splits are better than on the road. Some avoid Coors Field at all costs, others welcome the hefty discount. Take your pick.
Gray came out after the season to state his 2018 struggles were due to unspecified health issues that caused him to lose 20 pounds and also some of his velocity. He had a 5.44 ERA in the first half despite a strong 21.6 K-BB%. The struggles earned him a midseason demotion, and when he returned, his ERA dropped nearly a full run, but his K-BB dropped to 11.8%. Gray's issues were exacerbated when runners were on base as the league hit .297/.379/.506 against him when anyone was on base compared to a .242/.286/.417 line with the bases empty. That was not the case in 2017 when the league hit .230/.302/.365 against Gray with runners on base. A simple return to previous levels of health and velocity should get him back on the right track as the underlying skills are there. The struggles while pitching with runners on base were simply too much to overcome in 2018. It is a fixable issue, and the Coors Field factor should keep his price down.
The initial response to Gray is that we must ding him because he pitches in Colorado. What if you knew that over the past two seasons, he has held the league to a .238 average in Coors and has a 3.89 ERA there? Gray has now pitched two seasons in Colorado with at least 100 innings of work and his overall home run rate has been below 1.0 HR/9 in each season. That speaks to the quality of his stuff and how tough he is to square up when he is commanding all of his pitches. The addition of a better curveball in 2017 helped him take another step forward, but the next step is avoiding the disabled list as he has yet to make 30 starts in a season (20 last season). Rostering Gray is not as risky as is the case with most Colorado pitchers. He could come at a bargain in mixed leagues due to his zip code.
In his first full season in the big league rotation, Gray took strides toward becoming the frontline arm the Rockies were hoping for when they selected him with the third overall pick in the 2013 draft. He improved on many fronts, raising his K/9 to an outstanding 9.9, increasing his GB/FB ratio to 1.65 and upping the average velocity of his fastball above 95 mph. Walk rate was one of the few areas that saw a slight regression, as his BB/9 increased ever so slightly to 3.2. His ERA, although improved from 2015, still sat at a less than desirable 4.61, although his 3.60 FIP suggests luck wasn't on his side. All in all, 2016 was a step forward for Gray, and at only 24 years old, he should continue to progress as he works toward being the top gun in the Rockies rotation. Coors Field will never be his friend, but he was actually better at home (3.16 FIP) than on the road (4.05 FIP) last season, suggesting that he is capable of handling the thin Rocky Mountain air.
The default with Colorado pitchers is to look at the home/road splits and try to ascertain how much Coors Field impacted his numbers. Occam's Razor suggests the most straightforward answer, so we look at the splits and see an 8.27 ERA at home (21 innings) and a 2.70 ERA on the road (20 innings) in near-equal samples. His fastball and changeup were obliterated at home to the tune of a combined 1.158 OPS in 86 plate appearances, versus a .678 OPS in 59 plate appearances on the road. The necessary caveats apply to a 41-inning sample, but it's not surprising that his stuff is less effective in Denver. It's just always going to be a problem for Colorado pitchers. We'll get seasons here and there, but long-term fantasy relevance at Coors Field seems impossible. It's not just the thin air, either, honestly it's usually more about the enormous outfield. Throw in the fact that he is slated to miss a month or more with a strained abdominal muscle to start the season, and Gray is best left untouched in standard leagues, until he is able to return and demonstrate his health. At that point he could be a useful streaming option in road starts.
Though their battered rotation presented several openings by midseason, the Rockies resisted the temptation to call up Gray and begin his service clock in the midst of a non-contending year. Gray likely would have forced the Rockies’ hand if he dominated in his first full season in the minors, but he was merely only very good at Double-A Tulsa, submitting a 3.91 ERA and 14.2 K%-BB% over 124.1 innings. It won’t preclude him from competing for an Opening Day starting gig with the Rockies this spring, but the organization probably prefers to give him a little more time in the minors to raise his performance before joining the big club later in the season and assuming his destiny as an anchor in their rotation. Having Coors Field as his eventual home park dampens Gray’s appeal more than most prospects of his caliber because of the expected ERA and WHIP hits, but the right-hander probably has a rosier fantasy outlook than the Rockies’ other highly-touted hurler, Eddie Butler, on the basis of his stronger strikeout rates.
After he was drafted third overall in the first-year player draft in June, Gray immediately made a splash on the professional stage. He was quickly advanced through rookie ball and proceeded to breeze through his five California League starts, going 4-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 36:6 K:BB ratio over 24 innings. With starting pitching being a sore spot for the organization practically since its inception, the Rockies have made it known they intend to fast-track Gray’s development, making a deployment to Double-A Tulsa or Triple-A Colorado Springs out of spring training a distinct possibility for the ascendant right-hander. At 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Gray possesses the ideal frame for a power pitcher and the repertoire to match. With a fastball that routinely touches the upper-90s to go along with his plus-slider, Gray projects as a high-volume strikeout artist at the next level and he should already attract attention in dynasty formats.
More Fantasy News
Out indefinitely
PTexas Rangers
Wrist
March 15, 2025
Manager Bruce Bochy said Saturday that Gray (wrist) will miss "extended time," Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Fractures wrist Friday
PTexas Rangers
Wrist
March 14, 2025
Gray was diagnosed with a fractured right wrist after getting hit by a comebacker during Friday's Cactus League game versus Colorado, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Hit by comebacker
PTexas Rangers
Arm
March 14, 2025
Gray was removed from Friday's Cactus League game against the Rockies after getting hit on the right arm by a comebacker, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Being used as starter this spring
PTexas Rangers
March 13, 2025
Gray has made two starts this spring, tossing five scoreless innings with a 3:0 K:BB.
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Makes second spring start
PTexas Rangers
March 3, 2025
Gray allowed four hits and struck out two over three scoreless innings in Sunday's spring start against Arizona.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Offseason trade candidate?
PTexas Rangers
October 16, 2024
Gray, who ended the season on the injured list due to a neuroma in his foot, could be a candidate to be traded during the offseason if the Rangers opt to shed some salary, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News reports.
ANALYSIS
The right-hander was also listed as a potential trade option during the summer for similar reasons, but he suffered a groin injury just ahead of the summer deadline and missed the next few weeks. Gray made only three more appearances before being sidelined by the foot injury, and he finished the campaign with a 4.47 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 86:28 K:BB across 102.2 innings. The 32-year-old will make $13 million next season in the final year of his contract, and the Rangers could look to move him to free up some money in an attempt to bring back Nathan Eovaldi and/or Andrew Heaney.
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