Kyle Gibson

35-Year-Old PitcherSP

Baltimore Orioles

2023 Stats

W-L

7-3

ERA

3.87

WHIP

1.32

Rest-of-Season Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

Unlock Our Projections

2023 Fantasy Outlook

Gibson's pitch-to-contact approach always seemed dicey at a hitter-friendly park like the one the Phillies call home, and that's how things played out during his time with the team. He produced a 5.09 ERA in 12 appearances after his midseason move in 2021 and followed that up with a similar 5.05 ERA in 31 starts last season. His ERA estimators, such as his 3.94 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA, suggested that he deserved significantly better, and he actually did manage a far better 4.08 ERA through the end of August before getting blown up for a 9.73 ERA across his final six outings. He also managed a career-best 6.7 BB%. He found a good landing spot in the offseason, signing a one-year deal with Baltimore, where the home park was the 24th-most hitter-friendly park in the league last year, according to Baseball Savant. Gibson should have enough job security to eat innings and be a solid home streaming option. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#510

ADP

Overall

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'6"

Weight 215

DOB 10/23/1987

Born Greenfield, IN

College Missouri

Drafted 1st Rd 2009 MIN

Strikes out seven in no-decision

PBaltimore Orioles

June 7, 2023

Gibson allowed two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out seven across five innings Tuesday against the Brewers. He did not factor into the decision.

ANALYSIS
The Brewers had five batters reach base against Gibson in the opening frame, leading to their only two runs against him. Gibson was able to settle in afterward and even struck out the side in the fifth to finish his day on a strong note. His seven strikeouts were his most since he piled up 11 back on April 22 and he's now allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts. The 35-year-old sports a 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 54:25 K:BB over 76.2 innings and is tentatively expected to take the mound next against the Royals over the weekend.

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Pitching Stats

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2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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2017 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Kyle Gibson generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Kyle Gibson generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-11%

BAA vs RHP

2023

-30%

BAA vs RHP

2022

-6%

BAA vs LHP

2021

-20%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2021vs Left	.268	884	155	73	213	48	6	24
Since 2021vs Right	.238	904	198	63	196	31	2	23
2023vs Left	.309	170	28	15	47	14	2	4
2023vs Right	.215	148	26	10	29	1	2	2
2022vs Left	.258	321	54	27	74	14	2	10
2022vs Right	.274	396	90	21	101	18	0	14
2021vs Left	.259	393	73	31	92	20	2	10
2021vs Right	.206	360	82	32	66	12	0	7
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2021

-22%

ERA at Home

2023

-19%

ERA at Home

2022

-21%

ERA at Home

2021

-37%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2021Home	3.73	1.20	215.0	17	9	0	7.6	2.6	1.0
Since 2021Away	4.81	1.37	211.1	10	11	0	7.3	3.2	1.0
2023Home	3.38	1.33	29.1	3	2	0	8.3	3.7	0.6
2023Away	4.18	1.31	47.1	4	1	0	5.1	2.5	0.8
2022Home	4.57	1.29	102.1	7	4	0	7.0	2.3	1.3
2022Away	5.79	1.41	65.1	3	4	0	8.8	3.0	1.2
2021Home	2.81	1.03	83.1	7	3	0	8.0	2.5	0.8
2021Away	4.47	1.38	98.2	3	6	0	7.4	3.7	0.9
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Stat Review

How does Kyle Gibson compare to other starting pitchers?

This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.16

K/9

6.3

BB/9

2.9

HR/9

0.7

Fastball

91.9 mph

ERA

3.87

WHIP

1.32

BABIP

.301

GB/FB

1.51

Left On Base

73.4%

Exit Velocity

82.3 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.0%

Spin Rate

2161 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

27.6%

Swinging Strike

9.4%

Advanced Pitching Stats

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

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2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Gibson was one of last year's early surprises, cruising to a 1.98 ERA over his first 16 starts. He gave up 16 runs across his last three starts before the deadline, hurting his trade value, but the Phillies acquired him nonetheless, and he went on to produce a 5.09 ERA in 12 outings the rest of the way. Altogether, his 3.71 ERA represented the second-best mark of his nine-year career, but there's not a lot to get excited about with Gibson heading into his age-34 campaign, especially now that he pitches in one of the league's more hitter-friendly parks. His 51.7% groundball rate helps keep the ball in the park, but it's tough to bet on a pitcher who allows as much contact as he does (his sub-par 20.6 K% was the third-best mark of his career) at such a venue. A repeat of 2021 would keep Gibson interesting enough, but there's more downside than upside here given his age and new home.

Gibson signed a three-year, $28 million deal with the Rangers last winter. The Rangers were careful with Gibson early on in the spring after a bout with ulcerative colitis resulted in the right-hander losing strength during the 2019 season, his last with the Twins. The delay to the 2020 campaign afforded Gibson extra time, but even so his first season with Texas was one to forget, and the long ball in particular was a problem. The right-hander deserves credit for his durability over the years, but the volume can only carry his fantasy value so far.

Gibson took a step back after a career-best season in 2018. Health was an issue as Gibson had a delayed start to spring training after suffering from an E. coli infection. Gibson initially looked on track, going 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA in the first half. He then declined sharply in the second half with a 5.92 ERA. Stamina was likely an issue as he went on the injured list in September with ulcerative colitis. He returned at the end of the season in the bullpen. His step back can't all be attributed to health as he threw just 30.6% of his pitches in the strike zone, which was the worst in AL (150 +IP). He also struggled with the long ball with a 1.3 HR/9. Still, he did continue some improvements from 2018 with a 9.0 K/9 and career-best 93.4 mph average on his fastball. If he can manage his ulcerative colitis and keep his weight and stamina, he could bounce back after signing with Texas.

Gibson made surprising strides at age 30 with a career-best 3.62 ERA and 8.2 K/9. He increased his average fastball velocity to 93.0 mph and his swinging-strike rate to 11.5%, both career highs. He kept more balls in the park with a 1.1 HR/9, compared to 1.4 in 2017. His 49.8% groundball rate ranked fourth among qualified starters. He was also more consistent with just two three-game streaks of allowing three or more runs, compared to 2017 when he was sent to the minors after a terrible stretch and 2016 when he had a 6.62 ERA in August. Control remains an issue (3.6 BB/9 last season) and it is hard to feel confident about his gains in velocity and strikeout rate, given how much they stand out and how late they came in his career, but if those gains turn out to be legitimate, he is an undervalued No. 3 starter.

Gibson's final output last season mirrored his 2016 production (a 5.07 ERA both years), but last year featured a roller coaster that saw him both sent to the minors and become Minnesota's hottest pitcher. He began the season in the rotation but was sent to Triple-A in May after going 0-4 with an 8.20 ERA in six starts. He righted the ship when he returned later in the month and surged after the All-Star break. In the second half he reduced his walks from 4.2 BB/9 to 2.6 BB/9 while also upping his strikeouts from 5.6 K/9 to 8.2 K/9, resulting in a 7-3 record and a 3.76 ERA. In addition to a decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts, he gave up significantly fewer home runs and generated weaker contact. His stuff didn’t improve, but his pitch location did. Gibson has always had good groundball rates (50.8 percent last season) so if his command gains are legitimate, he could carry that second-half success over in 2018.

Gibson was expected to improve last season to become a reliable starter at the top of the rotation, but instead took a step back as both his walk rate and strikeout rates deteriorated. Gibson landed on the DL in April with a sore shoulder and missed nearly two months. He never got back on track when he returned as his velocity, strikeout rate and control all declined from the previous season. At his best, Gibson offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good groundball rate and average control. Perhaps health was the issue, but he'll need a bounceback season to remain in Minnesota's rotation.

Gibson had a solid, if unspectacular, 2015 season and will be counted on as Minnesota's No. 3 starter this year. His 194.2 innings led the team, and since his ERA was slightly below average, that made him Minnesota's most valuable player by bWAR. Gibson improved his strikeout rate, but it's still mediocre and his velocity (91.8 mph average fastball) wouldn't seem to indicate a lot of upside. He offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good ground ball rate (53.4 percent) and average control (3.0 BB/9, an uptick from his career norm). Gibson needs to be more consistent, as he has a pattern of alternating great and terrible starts; he had a 0.71 ERA in 11 wins and a 7.99 ERA in 11 losses last year. Still, at age 28, he could be hitting his prime now that he's established in Minnesota's rotation.

Gibson's first full season in the majors was an uneven affair as he showed glimpses of becoming a mainstay in the rotation while also having many ugly outings. He had a 1.42 ERA in his 13 wins, but a horrendous 11.04 ERA in his 12 losses. Gibson's poor strikeout rate (4.9 K/9 IP) limits his upside, but he's had some success due to a relatively low walk rate (2.9 BB/9) and a 54.4% groundball rate. If Gibson can reduce his number of disaster outings, he could improve to become a building block in Minnesota's rotation.

Gibson's first full season back from Tommy John surgery was a mixed bag as he had a strong season at Triple-A with a 2.92 ERA and 87:33 K:BB ratio in 101.2 innings, but struggled in his first test in the majors with a 6.53 ERA and 29:20 K:BB in 51 innings (5.1 K/9). While the 2009 first-round draft pick has been regarded as one of Minnesota's top pitching prospects, he's never had an overwhelming strikeout rate (8.0 K/9 in the minors) or velocity (92.1 average mph fastball in the majors), which may limit his upside. Still, he's likely to improve in his second full season after Tommy John surgery. He'll be a candidate for a spot in the Minnesota rotation in spring training.

Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, spent last summer working his way back from September 2011 Tommy John surgery. He made 13 minor league starts, including two at Triple-A in September. He then had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League with a 5.40 ERA and 28:8 K:BB in 23.1 innings (He began 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA, but struggled in his last three starts). Gibson has a strong chance to win a spot in the Twins' rotation, but it sounds like he may start the season in the minors or the bullpen as the Twins have said they plan to limit his workload to 130 or 140 innings. With three above-average pitches and excellent control, Gibson could quickly ascend to the top of Minnesota's rotation, but his upside may be limited because he has never had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors.

Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, will miss the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He may have been part of Minnesota's rotation as early as 2012 after he started the season with a 3.79 ERA and 74:17 K:BB ratio through 71.1 innings at Triple-A. However, he faded after June and was sidelined with a sore elbow that later required surgery. When healthy, he has three above average pitches and excellent control.

Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, jumped from High-A to Triple-A last season. He could contend for a spot in Minnesota's starting rotation in spring training, but likely begins the season at Triple-A and gets called up after a few months. The 2009 first-round draft pick has three above average pitches and excellent control. He could be an impact fantasy pitcher in 2011.

Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, didn't play last summer due to a stress fracture in his forearm. He was able to return for Minnesota's instructional league and is expected to be ready for spring training. He has three above average pitches and excellent control, so the college pitcher could advance rapidly after an expected start at Low-A Beloit.

More Fantasy News

Notches seventh win

PBaltimore Orioles

May 30, 2023

Gibson (7-3) earned the win Tuesday, allowing three runs on seven hits and a walk over 5.2 innings against Cleveland. He struck out three.