Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

35-Year-Old PitcherSP
Baltimore Orioles
2023 Fantasy Outlook
Gibson's pitch-to-contact approach always seemed dicey at a hitter-friendly park like the one the Phillies call home, and that's how things played out during his time with the team. He produced a 5.09 ERA in 12 appearances after his midseason move in 2021 and followed that up with a similar 5.05 ERA in 31 starts last season. His ERA estimators, such as his 3.94 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA, suggested that he deserved significantly better, and he actually did manage a far better 4.08 ERA through the end of August before getting blown up for a 9.73 ERA across his final six outings. He also managed a career-best 6.7 BB%. Still, we're talking about a 35-year-old who was an innings-eater at the best of times. It's not impossible that he returns to that level, especially if he finds himself in a pitcher-friendly park, but it's easier to envision another step back at his age than it is to picture a significant rebound. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
$Signed a one-year contract with the Orioles in December of 2022.
Signs with Orioles
PBaltimore Orioles
December 3, 2022
Gibson signed a one-year deal with the Orioles on Saturday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.
ANALYSIS
Gibson has been eating innings at the big-league level for a full decade, but how much remains in the tank ahead of his age-35 season is unclear. His 5.05 ERA last season means he's finished above 5.00 in that category in two of the last three seasons, though he did post a 3.71 ERA in 2021 and hasn't seen a big drop in velocity. His 20.1 percent strikeout rate in 2022 was below average as usual, though allowing plenty of contact isn't quite as dangerous as it used to be in Baltimore now that the left-field fence has been pushed back. The veteran righty should have a good shot at a spot near the back of the Orioles' rotation to open the year, but his age means the bottom could fall out at any time without much warning.
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Pitching Stats
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2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2022 MLB Game Log
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2021 MLB Game Log
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
84
Last 10 Games
75
Last 5 Games
61
How many pitches does Kyle Gibson generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Kyle Gibson generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2022
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2021
 
 
-20%
BAA vs RHP
2020
 
 
-10%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2020vs Left .260 843 145 70 196 37 5 27
Since 2020vs Right .251 911 209 70 207 36 1 26
2022vs Left .258 321 54 27 74 14 2 10
2022vs Right .274 396 90 21 101 18 0 14
2021vs Left .259 393 73 31 92 20 2 10
2021vs Right .206 360 82 32 66 12 0 7
2020vs Left .265 129 18 12 30 3 1 7
2020vs Right .294 155 37 17 40 6 1 5
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2020
 
 
-15%
ERA at Home
2022
 
 
-21%
ERA at Home
2021
 
 
-37%
ERA at Home
2020
 
 
-32%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2020Home 4.20 1.25 212.0 14 12 0 7.5 2.6 1.3
Since 2020Away 4.97 1.39 199.0 8 11 0 8.0 3.6 1.0
2022Home 4.57 1.29 102.1 7 4 0 7.0 2.3 1.3
2022Away 5.79 1.41 65.1 3 4 0 8.8 3.0 1.2
2021Home 2.81 1.03 83.1 7 3 0 8.0 2.5 0.8
2021Away 4.47 1.38 98.2 3 6 0 7.4 3.7 0.9
2020Home 7.18 1.82 26.1 0 5 0 7.9 4.4 2.7
2020Away 4.89 1.37 35.0 2 1 0 8.0 4.1 1.0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Kyle Gibson compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.00
 
K/9
7.7
 
BB/9
2.6
 
HR/9
1.3
 
Fastball
91.8 mph
 
ERA
5.05
 
WHIP
1.34
 
BABIP
.316
 
GB/FB
1.69
 
Left On Base
66.2%
 
Exit Velocity
81.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.8%
 
Spin Rate
2230 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
24.8%
 
Swinging Strike
11.1%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Gibson was one of last year's early surprises, cruising to a 1.98 ERA over his first 16 starts. He gave up 16 runs across his last three starts before the deadline, hurting his trade value, but the Phillies acquired him nonetheless, and he went on to produce a 5.09 ERA in 12 outings the rest of the way. Altogether, his 3.71 ERA represented the second-best mark of his nine-year career, but there's not a lot to get excited about with Gibson heading into his age-34 campaign, especially now that he pitches in one of the league's more hitter-friendly parks. His 51.7% groundball rate helps keep the ball in the park, but it's tough to bet on a pitcher who allows as much contact as he does (his sub-par 20.6 K% was the third-best mark of his career) at such a venue. A repeat of 2021 would keep Gibson interesting enough, but there's more downside than upside here given his age and new home.
Gibson signed a three-year, $28 million deal with the Rangers last winter. The Rangers were careful with Gibson early on in the spring after a bout with ulcerative colitis resulted in the right-hander losing strength during the 2019 season, his last with the Twins. The delay to the 2020 campaign afforded Gibson extra time, but even so his first season with Texas was one to forget, and the long ball in particular was a problem. The right-hander deserves credit for his durability over the years, but the volume can only carry his fantasy value so far.
Gibson took a step back after a career-best season in 2018. Health was an issue as Gibson had a delayed start to spring training after suffering from an E. coli infection. Gibson initially looked on track, going 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA in the first half. He then declined sharply in the second half with a 5.92 ERA. Stamina was likely an issue as he went on the injured list in September with ulcerative colitis. He returned at the end of the season in the bullpen. His step back can't all be attributed to health as he threw just 30.6% of his pitches in the strike zone, which was the worst in AL (150 +IP). He also struggled with the long ball with a 1.3 HR/9. Still, he did continue some improvements from 2018 with a 9.0 K/9 and career-best 93.4 mph average on his fastball. If he can manage his ulcerative colitis and keep his weight and stamina, he could bounce back after signing with Texas.
Gibson made surprising strides at age 30 with a career-best 3.62 ERA and 8.2 K/9. He increased his average fastball velocity to 93.0 mph and his swinging-strike rate to 11.5%, both career highs. He kept more balls in the park with a 1.1 HR/9, compared to 1.4 in 2017. His 49.8% groundball rate ranked fourth among qualified starters. He was also more consistent with just two three-game streaks of allowing three or more runs, compared to 2017 when he was sent to the minors after a terrible stretch and 2016 when he had a 6.62 ERA in August. Control remains an issue (3.6 BB/9 last season) and it is hard to feel confident about his gains in velocity and strikeout rate, given how much they stand out and how late they came in his career, but if those gains turn out to be legitimate, he is an undervalued No. 3 starter.
Gibson's final output last season mirrored his 2016 production (a 5.07 ERA both years), but last year featured a roller coaster that saw him both sent to the minors and become Minnesota's hottest pitcher. He began the season in the rotation but was sent to Triple-A in May after going 0-4 with an 8.20 ERA in six starts. He righted the ship when he returned later in the month and surged after the All-Star break. In the second half he reduced his walks from 4.2 BB/9 to 2.6 BB/9 while also upping his strikeouts from 5.6 K/9 to 8.2 K/9, resulting in a 7-3 record and a 3.76 ERA. In addition to a decrease in walks and increase in strikeouts, he gave up significantly fewer home runs and generated weaker contact. His stuff didn’t improve, but his pitch location did. Gibson has always had good groundball rates (50.8 percent last season) so if his command gains are legitimate, he could carry that second-half success over in 2018.
Gibson was expected to improve last season to become a reliable starter at the top of the rotation, but instead took a step back as both his walk rate and strikeout rates deteriorated. Gibson landed on the DL in April with a sore shoulder and missed nearly two months. He never got back on track when he returned as his velocity, strikeout rate and control all declined from the previous season. At his best, Gibson offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good groundball rate and average control. Perhaps health was the issue, but he'll need a bounceback season to remain in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson had a solid, if unspectacular, 2015 season and will be counted on as Minnesota's No. 3 starter this year. His 194.2 innings led the team, and since his ERA was slightly below average, that made him Minnesota's most valuable player by bWAR. Gibson improved his strikeout rate, but it's still mediocre and his velocity (91.8 mph average fastball) wouldn't seem to indicate a lot of upside. He offsets his lack of strikeouts with a good ground ball rate (53.4 percent) and average control (3.0 BB/9, an uptick from his career norm). Gibson needs to be more consistent, as he has a pattern of alternating great and terrible starts; he had a 0.71 ERA in 11 wins and a 7.99 ERA in 11 losses last year. Still, at age 28, he could be hitting his prime now that he's established in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson's first full season in the majors was an uneven affair as he showed glimpses of becoming a mainstay in the rotation while also having many ugly outings. He had a 1.42 ERA in his 13 wins, but a horrendous 11.04 ERA in his 12 losses. Gibson's poor strikeout rate (4.9 K/9 IP) limits his upside, but he's had some success due to a relatively low walk rate (2.9 BB/9) and a 54.4% groundball rate. If Gibson can reduce his number of disaster outings, he could improve to become a building block in Minnesota's rotation.
Gibson's first full season back from Tommy John surgery was a mixed bag as he had a strong season at Triple-A with a 2.92 ERA and 87:33 K:BB ratio in 101.2 innings, but struggled in his first test in the majors with a 6.53 ERA and 29:20 K:BB in 51 innings (5.1 K/9). While the 2009 first-round draft pick has been regarded as one of Minnesota's top pitching prospects, he's never had an overwhelming strikeout rate (8.0 K/9 in the minors) or velocity (92.1 average mph fastball in the majors), which may limit his upside. Still, he's likely to improve in his second full season after Tommy John surgery. He'll be a candidate for a spot in the Minnesota rotation in spring training.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, spent last summer working his way back from September 2011 Tommy John surgery. He made 13 minor league starts, including two at Triple-A in September. He then had a decent showing in the Arizona Fall League with a 5.40 ERA and 28:8 K:BB in 23.1 innings (He began 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA, but struggled in his last three starts). Gibson has a strong chance to win a spot in the Twins' rotation, but it sounds like he may start the season in the minors or the bullpen as the Twins have said they plan to limit his workload to 130 or 140 innings. With three above-average pitches and excellent control, Gibson could quickly ascend to the top of Minnesota's rotation, but his upside may be limited because he has never had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, will miss the 2012 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He may have been part of Minnesota's rotation as early as 2012 after he started the season with a 3.79 ERA and 74:17 K:BB ratio through 71.1 innings at Triple-A. However, he faded after June and was sidelined with a sore elbow that later required surgery. When healthy, he has three above average pitches and excellent control.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, jumped from High-A to Triple-A last season. He could contend for a spot in Minnesota's starting rotation in spring training, but likely begins the season at Triple-A and gets called up after a few months. The 2009 first-round draft pick has three above average pitches and excellent control. He could be an impact fantasy pitcher in 2011.
Gibson, Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick, didn't play last summer due to a stress fracture in his forearm. He was able to return for Minnesota's instructional league and is expected to be ready for spring training. He has three above average pitches and excellent control, so the college pitcher could advance rapidly after an expected start at Low-A Beloit.
More Fantasy News
Shelled for seven runs
PPhiladelphia Phillies
October 1, 2022
Gibson (10-8) took the loss Saturday, allowing seven runs on eight hits and two walks over six innings against the Nationals. He struck out seven.
ANALYSIS
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Fans nine in shaky outing
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 25, 2022
Gibson yielded five runs on seven hits and two walks over five frames against Atlanta on Sunday. He struck out nine and did not factor in the decision.
ANALYSIS
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Hit hard in loss
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 20, 2022
Gibson (10-7) took the loss Tuesday against Toronto, allowing seven runs on 12 hits and a walk while striking out three in five innings.
ANALYSIS
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Earns 10th victory
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 14, 2022
Gibson (10-6) earned the win Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits with seven strikeouts over six innings against Miami.
ANALYSIS
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Allows two homers
PPhiladelphia Phillies
September 8, 2022
Gibson did not factor into the decision Thursday, allowing four runs on nine hits and one walk over five innings against the Marlins. He struck out two.
ANALYSIS
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