Michael Kopech

28-Year-Old PitcherRP

Los Angeles Dodgers

Out

Injury Forearm

Est. Return 3/10/2025

2024 Stats

W-L

6-8

ERA

3.46

WHIP

1.15

2025 Projections

W-L

ERA

WHIP

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2025 Fantasy Outlook

Kopech changed his approach in 2024 as part of a full-time move to relief. Pitching in shorter stints, the 28-year-old added velocity on his fastball that he threw 98.5 mph on average - a +3.5 mph difference from 2023. He also increased the usage of the pitch, tossing it a career-high 78 percent of the time. This yielded excellent results, as hitters had trouble squaring up on the four-seamer; its 34 percent whiff rate among the highest in the league for that pitch type. As for Kopech's secondary arsenal, he eliminated his changeup and curveball in favor of a cutter. Overall, he struck out 88 across 67.2 innings between the White Sox and Dodgers while also receiving save chances for both clubs. Walks are still an issue, but Kopech improved his control after the trade to L.A. (3.8 BB/9 compared to 4.9 prior). Kopech racked up 15 saves, 10 holds and six wins last season and appeared to be the favorite for the closer job to begin 2025, but the Dodgers' signing of Tanner Scott should limited Kopech for more of a setup role. Read Past Outlooks

RANKS

From Preseason

Overall Rank

#288

ADP

League Majors

Bats R

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'3"

Weight 225

DOB 4/30/1996

Born Longview, TX

College None

Drafted 1st Rd 2014 BOS

Could begin season on IL

PLos Angeles Dodgers

Forearm

February 12, 2025

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that Kopech (forearm) is behind schedule in his throwing program and admitted that the right-hander could begin the season on the injured list, Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports.

ANALYSIS
Kopech experienced right forearm inflammation over the winter, and though Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes previously said in January that the 28-year-old wasn't on track to miss time to begin the season, the organization's stance on the matter has seemingly changed as spring training has gotten underway. On a positive note, Kopech hasn't been shut down from throwing, but it's unclear when he might be cleared to face hitters and eventually make his Cactus League debut. After being acquired from the White Sox in July, Kopech pitched to a 1.13 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 29:10 K:BB while going 6-for-6 in save chances over 24 innings for the Dodgers to close out the regular season, then struck out 10 batters while allowing three runs over nine postseason innings. Despite his dominant showing during his time with the Dodgers last season, Kopech's uncertain health in addition to the team's deep stable of capable high-leverage relievers renders him primarily an NL-only or deep mixed-league consideration in 2025 fantasy drafts.

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Pitching Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2024 MLB Game Log

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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2020 MLB Game Log

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2019 MLB Game Log

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2018 MLB Game Log

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Pitching Appearances Breakdown

Average Pitch Count

Last 10 Games

Last 5 Games

How many pitches does Michael Kopech generally throw?

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

1-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41-50

51-60

61-70

71-80

81-90

91-100

101-110

111-120

121+

What part of the game does Michael Kopech generally pitch?

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

Extra

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

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9th

Extra

% Games Reaching Innings Threshold

% Games By Number of Innings Pitched

Left/Right Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-4%

BAA vs LHP

2024

-32%

BAA vs LHP

2023

-6%

BAA vs LHP

2022

-13%

BAA vs RHP

	BAA	Batters	K	BB	H	2B	3B	HR
Since 2022vs Left	.208	647	190	98	111	24	3	21
Since 2022vs Right	.217	717	137	84	133	18	0	32
2024vs Left	.153	141	55	18	18	2	0	4
2024vs Right	.224	138	33	16	26	2	0	5
2023vs Left	.231	291	73	50	54	10	2	12
2023vs Right	.245	300	61	41	61	11	0	17
2022vs Left	.214	215	62	30	39	12	1	5
2022vs Right	.186	279	43	27	46	5	0	10
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Pitching Splits

Since 2022

-23%

ERA at Home

2024

-36%

ERA at Home

2023

-12%

ERA at Home

2022

-29%

ERA at Home

	ERA	WHIP	IP	W	L	SV	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Since 2022Home	3.80	1.21	177.2	5	14	10	9.3	4.8	1.5
Since 2022Away	4.93	1.52	138.2	11	15	5	9.3	5.6	1.5
2024Home	2.79	1.09	38.2	2	3	10	10.5	4.4	1.2
2024Away	4.34	1.24	29.0	4	5	5	13.3	4.7	1.2
2023Home	5.12	1.51	70.1	1	6	0	10.5	5.9	2.2
2023Away	5.80	1.69	59.0	4	6	0	7.9	6.9	1.8
2022Home	3.01	0.98	68.2	2	5	0	7.3	3.9	1.0
2022Away	4.26	1.48	50.2	3	4	0	8.7	4.8	1.2
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Stat Review

How does Michael Kopech compare to other relievers?

This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

K/BB

2.59

K/9

11.7

BB/9

4.5

HR/9

1.2

Fastball

98.8 mph

ERA

3.46

WHIP

1.15

BABIP

.254

GB/FB

0.86

Left On Base

78.0%

Exit Velocity

82.6 mph

Barrels/BBE

5.0%

Spin Rate

2584 rpm

Balls Hit 95+ MPH

20.1%

Swinging Strike

14.6%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Michael Kopech Prospect Ranking History

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Defensive Stats

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Stats Vs Today's Lineup

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Past Fantasy Outlooks

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

Kopech took a major step back in 2023 with a 5.43 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 15.4 percent walk rate in 129 innings. He started in 27 of his 30 outings but was out of the rotation by early September, and his season ended a week early for knee surgery. The right-hander had a decent first half with a 4.08 ERA, but even at his best it was often a challenge to get through five innings due to the walk issues. Kopech seems likely to get another shot as a starter heading into 2024, but with the lingering durability concerns and control problems, there's no guarantee he'll receive that opportunity. Fantasy managers could do worse for a late-round flier, but he's mostly an upside play with a low floor.

Kopech returned to a big-league mound in 2021 for the first time in three years and excelled as a reliever, and he continued that success in the starting rotation last year. The right-hander made only 19 starts while he dealt with knee and shoulder issues, but when available he pitched well with a 3.54 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 105:57 K:BB across 119.1 innings. He unsurprisingly saw his velocity drop 2.5 mph from his year out of the bullpen, and with it his strikeout rate dropped from 36.1 percent to 21.3 percent. The underlying numbers are a bit less encouraging, as he had a 4.83 xFIP and .223 BABIP, which could indicate he's due for some regression. Kopech continues to rely heavily on his fastball and slider and may not be able to take that next step until he's able to mix in an effective third pitch more often, which has eluded him to this point.

Kopech was a giant unknown heading into the 2021 season. When last we saw him, he left his final start after his promotion from the minors with an injury in 2018 which required Tommy John surgery to fix. He missed the 2019 season rehabbing, and opted out of the 2020 season due to health concerns. He came into 2021 as a reliever, something he had never done as a professional, and absolutely flourished in the role from a real baseball perspective. His success did not exactly translate into much fantasy success outside of his strikeout total, but he quickly reminded us what his right arm is capable of doing when it is healthy. Now the question will be: can he transition back to the rotation? If so, what will it look like? An effective third pitch has thus far eluded him, and that challenge along with the jump in workload may just make him a risk you let others take.

Kopech threw one clean five-pitch inning last spring during Cactus League play, which marks his lone game action in over two years. He needed Tommy John surgery in September 2018 after a brief cup of coffee and opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic. He will be 30 months removed from TJS this spring. New pitching coach Ethan Katz said in December that Kopech is feeling great and the team expects him to compete for a rotation spot in camp. Kopech's arm should be healthy and fresh, but considering he has been unable to build up his workload, the White Sox will probably have to devise a creative way of managing him this season. Kopech has an 80-grade fastball, plus slider, improving changeup and shaky control. He is the type of pitching prospect who could dominate any team over six innings or get chased by any team before making it out of the third inning.

Since 2000, of six starting pitchers who had their first Tommy John surgery in September, as Kopech did in 2018, the average innings pitched in the season that began 18 months later was 101.2. Two of the six (Mike Hampton, Scott Mathieson) did not make it back at all during what should have been their comeback years. Kopech has an 80-grade fourseam fastball with elite spin and will flash a plus slider and plus changeup. However, his command and control are fringe-average at best. Considering command is often the last thing to return for pitchers coming off TJS, we should not panic if he is wild in spring training or even the first couple months of the season. He is undeniably a flyball pitcher, so home runs will sometimes follow his walks and hit batsmen. This is not the year to expect quality ratios, but there will be a lot of strikeouts if he is lucky enough to avoid setbacks when he starts to ramp up.

Chicago's tantalizing fireballer grinded his way to a late-season MLB debut, battling control issues at Triple-A for much of the season. The excitement was short lived, as he required Tommy John surgery in mid-September. Kopech gave up a run on 11 hits and one walk while hitting five batters and striking out nine over 11 innings in his first three MLB starts (two were cut short by rain). He was pummeled in his final start, which also included a rain delay before he tore his UCL. There is a lot of noise in his tiny MLB sample -- elbow issues resulted in his velocity ticking down in each successive start and only one was unaffected by rain -- but in his debut outing his 96.8 mph four-seamer averaged 2,629 rpm -- Justin Verlander led qualified starters at 2,618 rpm. He also flashed a plus slider and plus changeup. Kopech will miss all of 2019 and with a normal recovery he will be fully healthy for spring training in 2020 -- 17-plus months removed from the surgery.

Last year Kopech's doubters thought he would end up as a high-leverage reliever, but now he seems more likely to wind up on the cover of GQ than in a big-league bullpen. There are reasonable arguments for a couple other hurlers (Forrest Whitley and Alex Reyes), but Kopech will be ranked by most as the top pitching prospect in the game this offseason. In addition to his famed 80-grade fastball, which he can dial up to triple digits with ease, Kopech made massive strides with his slider and changeup. Both secondaries now project as plus offerings, and with improving command, a future No. 1 starter is coming into focus. The White Sox kept him at Double-A for most of 2017, but rewarded his improvement with a three-start run at Triple-A to close out the year. He will return to Charlotte, but he should spend the bulk of 2018 in the big-league rotation. His immediate floor is a high-strikeout ratio risk, but if he throws enough strikes, he could be an SP2 on a per-start basis.

Kopech made headlines in 2016, both bad and good. The bad was breaking his hand in spring training while getting into an altercation with a teammate, delaying his start to the season until July. Between this incident and missing 50 games of development in 2015 due to testing positive for a banned substance, there were some makeup questions dogging him. Once the 6-foot-3 right-hander started pitching, the good headlines started. His calling card is an overpowering fastball that touches triple digits. He breezed through Carolina League hitters, striking out 82 in 52 innings (14.2 K/9) and was clearly one of the top prospects in the Arizona Fall League. It is easy to see why the White Sox insisted Kopech be part of the deal for Chris Sale. Commanding the heater (5.0 BB/9 in 2016) in addition to improving the secondary offerings and building up innings (134.2 in three seasons) make up his to-do list for 2017.

Kopech is one of Boston’s better pitching prospects at the lower levels of the organization, projecting as a No. 2 starter if it all clicks for him. He was given a challenging assignment to Low-A Greenville to start the season and was successful at that level, finishing 4-5 with a 2.63 ERA while striking out 70 in 65 innings. The bad news is that Kopech was suspended 50 games for testing positive for Oxilofrine, a stimulant in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension wiped out the rest of his regular season, leaving him only an option of working out at team’s training facility in Fort Myers. He was able to work on a few things there, in particular his off-speed stuff and ironing out his mechanics. Kopech participated in the Fall Instructional League, making up for some lost development time. His major areas of focus in 2016 are repeating his delivery, commanding his fastball and refining the secondary stuff. He’ll likely open at Greenville.

Kopech was the second of Boston's two first-round picks in the 2014 draft. Coming out of high school, he was immediately assigned to the Gulf Coast League, where he held opponents to a measly .216 average and .255 slugging percentage. His problems with control and command were evident -- nine walks in 13.2 innings -- but his mid-90s heater (touching 97-98 mph) was effective against other rookies. Kopech has a lot of moving parts to his delivery, but has already worked to correct some of that. His secondary pitches are works in progress, but his raw stuff gives him a high ceiling if it can be harnessed. The Red Sox may challenge him at Low-A Greenville in 2015 for his first full-season assignment.

More Fantasy News

Throwing, 'feeling pretty good'

PLos Angeles Dodgers

Forearm

January 28, 2025

Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes said Tuesday on the Baseball Isn't Boring Podcast that Kopech (forearm) is going through his normal offseason throwing program and "feeling pretty good."

ANALYSIS
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Concern about forearm overblown

PLos Angeles Dodgers

Forearm

January 23, 2025

Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes downplayed Kopech's right forearm injury Wednesday and said, "I don't think there's anything of concern at this point," Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.

ANALYSIS
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Dealing with forearm inflammation

PLos Angeles Dodgers

Forearm

January 21, 2025

Kopech could miss the first month of the season due to right forearm inflammation, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

ANALYSIS
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Could miss first month of season

PLos Angeles Dodgers

Undisclosed

January 21, 2025

Kopech (undisclosed) is expected to possibly miss the first month of the season, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.

ANALYSIS
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Settles at $5.2 million

PLos Angeles Dodgers

January 9, 2025

The Dodgers and Kopech avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $5.2 million contract Thursday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.

ANALYSIS
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Latest Fantasy Rumors

Using slider more in LA

PLos Angeles Dodgers

September 13, 2024

Kopech has utilized his slider more since being acquired by the Dodgers and has a 1.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 22:7 K:BB over 18 innings since the trade, per Sam Blum of The Athletic.

ANALYSIS
The right-hander still heavily relies on his four-seam fastball -- which has the highest usage of his career at 79.1 percent -- but he's mostly ditched his cutter in favor of the slider since heading to Los Angeles. Kopech had a 4.74 ERA in 43 appearances with the White Sox this season, but he's showcased his potential with the Dodgers and quickly worked his way into the closer committee.

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